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Penarol vs Welcome Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 20 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 107-74
27-15 25-18 24-24 31-17
Position#1
Record14-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.6
Allowed / game70.6
vs
Position#12
Record1-15
FormLWLLL
Points / game81.1
Allowed / game99.3
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penarol v Welcome
20 Jan 2026
PENA107
WELC74
11 Feb 2025
PENA88
WELC59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Aguada
#3
W
103-89
103
89
+14
100avg 81
H08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
L
81-88
81
88
-7
73avg 81
A12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
86-69
86
69
+17
84avg 81
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
85-72
85
72
+13
83avg 81
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
85-58
85
58
+27
84avg 81
H04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
82-69
82
69
+13
76avg 81
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
89-67
89
67
+22
91avg 81
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
88-80
88
80
+8
88avg 81
H18/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
77-58
77
58
+19
83avg 81
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
79-69
79
69
+10
71avg 81
H14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
29-24
25-26
29-18
20-19
26-16
18-21
17-32
26-15
14-25
27-17
19-12
22-27
21-20
20-18
22-7
15-21
28-14
22-10
20-13
21-16
19-16
17-22
25-15
24-19
25-11
27-19
13-18
20-25
27-16
21-25
20-14
19-16
20-10
19-11
19-21
17-18
23-12
19-19
20-20
157.4Avg total
85.5Scored
71.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)85.670.6156.2+14.988%
Season at home (8)89.174.9164.0+14.2100%
Season away (8)82.066.4148.4+15.675%
Last 10 (10)85.571.9157.4+13.690%
Last 5 (5)83.068.6151.6+14.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)72.090.0162.0-18.00%
vs Similar (2)80.079.0159.0+1.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)84.673.9158.4+10.781%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
72-96
72
96
-24
58avg 72
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
82-112
82
112
-30
71avg 72
A10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
L
73-83
73
83
-10
55avg 72
H15/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
86-98
86
98
-12
76avg 72
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
63-102
63
102
-39
36avg 72
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
82-103
82
103
-21
75avg 72
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
99-89
99
89
+10
89avg 72
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
75-91
75
91
-16
62avg 72
A09/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
91-120
91
120
-29
88avg 72
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
73-86
73
86
-13
no box
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-23
15-24
16-25
19-24
17-39
26-27
25-22
14-24
15-18
14-21
15-29
29-15
17-22
27-25
31-27
11-24
13-28
14-31
22-25
14-18
23-28
27-28
11-22
21-25
20-18
26-26
24-23
29-22
23-29
13-26
17-23
22-13
14-28
29-34
28-25
20-33
20-20
20-38
20-16
13-12
177.6Avg total
79.6Scored
98.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)81.199.3180.4-18.26%
Season at home (8)81.095.1176.1-14.112%
Season away (8)81.2103.5184.8-22.20%
Last 10 (10)79.698.0177.6-18.410%
Last 5 (5)84.097.8181.8-13.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)81.598.3179.8-16.823%
vs Similar (4)82.882.8165.5+0.050%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -6.9-6.9Q2Q2: +6.8+6.8Q2: -6.9-6.9Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -1.8-1.8
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -6.9-6.9Q2Q2: +6.8+6.8Q2: -6.9-6.9Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -1.8-1.8
PenarolWelcome
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aguada
#3
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
49-30
49
30
+19
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H18/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H14/01
Liga Uruguaya
79.7Avg total
43.6Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.437.781.1+5.770%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.137.980.0+4.165%-
Last 30 away (13)45.237.482.6+7.877%-
Last 10 (10)43.636.179.7+7.580%-
Last 5 (5)43.031.874.8+11.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.040.083.0+3.0100%-
vs Similar (2)35.038.073.0-3.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)44.137.681.7+6.570%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
43-66
43
66
-23
A10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H15/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
27-59
27
59
-32
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
36-55
36
55
-19
A09/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
43-62
43
62
-19
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
40-58
40
58
-18
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
92.8Avg total
39.5Scored
53.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.551.092.4-9.520%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.848.589.2-7.723%-
Last 30 away (17)42.052.994.9-10.918%-
Last 10 (10)39.553.392.8-13.810%-
Last 5 (5)43.055.098.0-12.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)41.051.993.0-10.915%-
vs Similar (4)44.244.889.0-0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 78.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.520.4
54.4%
53.3%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.28.5
36.6%
33.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws19.112.3
64.4%
70.9%12.3
They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 79.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.720.1
53.3%
53.3%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.99.3
32.2%
33.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws15.811.6
73.4%
70.9%11.6
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WWWWWWWWLW
Welcome
LLLWLLLLLL
#1
League position
#12
+20.7
Net rating
-23.1
107.0
Offensive rating
95.9
86.3
Defensive rating
119.0
54.6%
Effective FG%
51.1%
45.3%
Opp. effective FG%
57.8%
17.6%
Turnover %
17.5%
37.2%
Off. rebound %
19.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.24
36.6%
3-point %
32.2%
66.1%
Assist %
63.3%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 95.9Defence86.3 · 119.0Shooting54.6% · 51.1%3-point %36.6% · 32.2%Ball care17.6% · 17.5%Off. rebounds37.2% · 19.8%Free throws0.31 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)90% · 10%
■ Penarol   ■ Welcome
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Penarol wins
0
Welcome wins
DateGameScore
03/11/25Welcome v Penarol80-102
12/02/25Penarol v Welcome88-59
11/12/24Welcome v Penarol66-91
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/26HHebraica y Macabi79-69
10/01/26ACordon77-58
18/12/25HUnion Atletica88-80
16/12/25AMalvin89-67
09/12/25HNacional82-69
04/12/25HUrunday85-58
21/11/25HDefensor85-72
18/11/25ABigua86-69
12/11/25AGoes81-88
08/11/25HAguada103-89
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26HCordon73-86
13/01/26ANacional91-120
09/01/26AUnion Atletica75-91
19/12/25HMalvin99-89
11/12/25ADefensor82-103
09/12/25HUrunday63-102
05/12/25HBigua86-98
15/11/25HGoes73-83
10/11/25AAguada82-112
07/11/25AHebraica y Macabi72-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW88%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %88%100%75%
Points / game85.689.182.0
Allowed / game70.674.966.4
Point differential+14.9+14.2+15.6
Avg total156.2164.0148.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+81%88%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL6%
HomeLLLWL12%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %6%12%0%
Points / game81.181.081.2
Allowed / game99.395.1103.5
Point differential-18.2-14.1-22.2
Avg total180.4176.1184.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol1614288%85.670.6+14.9
2 Nacional1511473%93.383.7+9.7
3 Malvin1712571%82.580.8+1.6
4 Hebraica y Macabi1711665%83.480.2+3.2
5 Aguada149564%94.489.9+4.5
6 Bigua169756%88.488.8-0.4
7 Defensor168850%86.585.7+0.8
8 Union Atletica167944%82.883.4-0.6
9 Urunday1771041%90.086.0+4.0
10 Goes1641225%83.791.9-8.2
11 Cordon1631319%81.692.4-10.8
12 Welcome161156%81.199.3-18.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol27252431107
Welcome1518241774
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