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Alftanes vs Stjarnan Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 28 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:15
Scheduled
Position#2
Record5-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game107.0
Allowed / game91.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.8/10
Above normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#7
Record3-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game93.3
IcelandPremier leagueRound 11· Ungmennafélag Álftaness
Other2026-27
Meetings · Alftanes v Stjarnan
28 Dec 2026
ALFT v STJA
upcoming
26 Mar 2026
ALFT124
STJA115
19 Jan 2025
ALFT88
STJA100
06 Dec 2024
ALFT77
STJA97
14 Mar 2024
ALFT86
STJA77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alftanes win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Stjarnan win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlftanesIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlftanes
Date
Competition
Keflavik
#5
L
96-106
96
106
-10
76avg 99
H06/03
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
89-93
89
93
-4
83avg 99
H12/03
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
104-115
104
115
-11
96avg 99
A21/03
Premier league
Stjarnan
#3
W
124-115
124
115
+9
119avg 99
H26/03
Premier league
Hottur
#8
W
111-77
111
77
+34
111avg 99
H08/10
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#10
W
119-88
119
88
+31
117avg 99
A15/10
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
130-110
130
110
+20
137avg 99
H23/10
Premier league
Tindastoll
#3
W
108-105 OT
108
105
+3
108avg 99
A29/10
Premier league
KR Basket
#1
L
94-102
94
102
-8
no box
H05/11
Premier league
Valur
#4
W
80-68
80
68
+12
no box
A12/11
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-17
16-28
33-39
27-22
23-31
29-23
24-25
13-14
31-25
31-29
23-30
19-31
29-30
30-33
30-35
35-17
26-26
31-17
24-15
30-19
31-25
29-27
31-19
28-17
29-32
34-29
32-32
35-17
19-27
25-23
33-36
19-10
20-28
21-23
33-22
20-29
21-9
20-32
18-15
21-12
203.4Avg total
105.5Scored
97.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)107.091.7198.7+15.383%
Season at home (3)111.796.3208.0+15.367%
Season away (3)102.387.0189.3+15.3100%
Last 10 (10)105.597.9203.4+7.660%
Last 5 (5)106.294.6200.8+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)92.6106.0198.6-13.414%
vs Similar (11)90.897.1187.9-6.318%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)102.581.5184.0+21.191%
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
StjarnanIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormStjarnan
Date
Competition
Tindastoll
#2
W
105-103 OT
105
103
+2
101avg 95
H25/04
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
88-103
88
103
-15
86avg 95
A29/04
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
97-103
97
103
-6
92avg 95
H03/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
91-100
91
100
-9
84avg 95
A06/05
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
77-90
77
90
-13
63avg 95
A08/10
Premier league
Hottur
#8
L
98-103
98
103
-5
86avg 95
H16/10
Premier league
Grindavik
#6
L
92-98
92
98
-6
82avg 95
A22/10
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#10
W
102-96
102
96
+6
101avg 95
H29/10
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
W
103-79
103
79
+24
no box
A07/11
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
113-94
113
94
+19
no box
H12/11
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-30
17-28
29-8
19-21
23-30
13-27
25-22
27-24
26-20
29-26
21-27
21-30
22-30
17-29
26-21
26-20
22-22
19-24
18-23
18-21
18-23
28-27
20-31
32-22
24-29
22-23
22-25
24-21
21-22
23-15
37-26
21-33
27-22
25-13
24-22
27-22
25-29
30-22
35-18
23-25
193.5Avg total
96.6Scored
96.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)97.593.3190.8+4.250%
Season at home (3)104.397.7202.0+6.767%
Season away (3)90.789.0179.7+1.733%
Last 10 (10)96.696.9193.5-0.340%
Last 5 (5)101.694.0195.6+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)84.0100.0184.0-16.00%
vs Similar (11)98.497.6196.0+0.745%
vs Weaker (18)105.995.6201.6+10.383%
This opponent (Alftanes) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -0.1-0.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -0.1-0.1
AlftanesStjarnan
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlftanesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keflavik
#5
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H06/03
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
52-54
52
54
-2
H12/03
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
62-54
62
54
+8
A21/03
Premier league
Stjarnan
#3
L
59-63
59
63
-4
H26/03
Premier league
Hottur
#8
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H08/10
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#10
W
60-52
60
52
+8
A15/10
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H23/10
Premier league
Tindastoll
#3
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A29/10
Premier league
KR Basket
#1
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H05/11
Premier league
Valur
#4
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A12/11
Premier league
102.9Avg total
51.5Scored
51.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.746.894.4+0.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.749.098.7+0.740%-
Last 30 away (15)45.744.590.2+1.140%-
Last 10 (10)51.551.4102.9+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)49.851.0100.8-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.052.7102.7-2.729%-
vs Similar (11)44.248.792.9-4.59%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)49.841.291.0+8.673%-
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
StjarnanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tindastoll
#2
L
39-58
39
58
-19
H25/04
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
36-57
36
57
-21
A29/04
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H03/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A06/05
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A08/10
Premier league
Hottur
#8
L
46-50
46
50
-4
H16/10
Premier league
Grindavik
#6
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A22/10
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#10
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H29/10
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
W
52-35
52
35
+17
A07/11
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H12/11
Premier league
94.4Avg total
45.3Scored
49.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.248.3100.5+3.967%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.847.7102.4+7.175%-
Last 30 away (14)49.349.098.3+0.357%-
Last 10 (10)45.349.194.4-3.840%-
Last 5 (5)48.645.093.6+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)43.056.099.0-13.00%-
vs Similar (11)47.549.296.6-1.755%-
vs Weaker (18)55.647.3102.9+8.378%-
This opponent (Alftanes) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alftanestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alftanes: 104.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 94.5 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.828.8
62.9%
56.2%57.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.610.4
35.1%
33.0%31.2
🏀 Free throws20.315.8
77.8%
73.9%15.8
They take 75.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Stjarnantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Stjarnan: 96.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.2 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 94.5 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.820.2
52.1%
56.2%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.611.6
32.6%
33.0%34.8
🏀 Free throws29.221.2
72.6%
73.9%21.2
They take 74.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alftanes
WLWWWWWLLL
Stjarnan
WWWLLLLLLW
#2
League position
#7
+4.9
Net rating
-4.1
107.5
Offensive rating
96.2
102.5
Defensive rating
100.3
58.9%
Effective FG%
50.5%
57.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.5%
13.7%
Turnover %
13.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.39
35.1%
3-point %
32.6%
55.4%
Assist %
65.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence107.5 · 96.2Defence102.5 · 100.3Shooting58.9% · 50.5%3-point %35.1% · 32.6%Ball care13.7% · 13.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Alftanes   ■ Stjarnan
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Alftanes wins
5
Stjarnan wins
DateGameScore
26/03/26Alftanes v Stjarnan124-115
19/12/25Stjarnan v Alftanes108-104
15/12/25Stjarnan v Alftanes94-74
07/03/25Stjarnan v Alftanes116-76
19/01/25Alftanes v Stjarnan88-100
06/12/24Alftanes v Stjarnan77-97
14/03/24Alftanes v Stjarnan86-77
01/12/23Stjarnan v Alftanes84-90 OT
Alftaneslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AValur80-68
05/11/26HKR Basket94-102
29/10/26ATindastoll108-105 OT
23/10/26HKeflavik130-110
15/10/26AIR Reykjavik119-88
08/10/26HHottur111-77
26/03/26HStjarnan124-115
21/03/26ATindastoll104-115
12/03/26HIR Reykjavik89-93
06/03/26HKeflavik96-106
Stjarnanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HKeflavik113-94
07/11/26ANjardvik103-79
29/10/26HIR Reykjavik102-96
22/10/26AGrindavik92-98
16/10/26HHottur98-103
08/10/26AValur77-90
06/05/26ATindastoll91-100
03/05/26HTindastoll97-103
29/04/26ATindastoll88-103
25/04/26HTindastoll105-103 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alftanes
Premier league 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW83%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%67%100%
Points / game107.0111.7102.3
Allowed / game91.796.387.0
Point differential+15.3+15.3+15.3
Avg total198.7208.0189.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Stjarnan
Premier league 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW50%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %50%67%33%
Points / game97.5104.390.7
Allowed / game93.397.789.0
Point differential+4.2+6.7+1.7
Avg total190.8202.0179.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 KR Basket660100%100.785.8+14.8
2 Alftanes65183%107.091.7+15.3
3 Tindastoll65183%91.883.7+8.2
4 Valur65183%84.278.8+5.3
5 Keflavik64267%105.0102.0+3.0
6 Grindavik64267%90.087.3+2.7
7 Stjarnan63350%97.593.3+4.2
8 Hottur62433%92.0101.5-9.5
9 Njardvik61517%87.394.3-7.0
10 IR Reykjavik61517%92.3102.3-10.0
11 Sindri6060%83.893.0-9.2
12 Armann6060%85.3103.2-17.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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