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Bauru vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 12 May 2025
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 84-67
23-16 23-15 17-16 21-20
Position#4
Record23-17
FormWLWWW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game77.7
Bauru 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#13
Record16-23
FormWWLWL
Points / game76.3
Allowed / game79.1
BrazilNBBNBB - Quarter-finals· Ginasio Panela de Pressao
Other2024-25
Meetings · Bauru v Sao Paulo
14 May 2025
BAUR89
SAO 85
12 May 2025
BAUR84
SAO 67
11 Jan 2025
BAUR75
SAO 73
24 Oct 2023
BAUR87
SAO 66
02 Mar 2023
BAUR74
SAO 81
03 May 2022
BAUR71
SAO 88
01 May 2022
BAUR62
SAO 85
18 Feb 2022
BAUR102
SAO 87
28 Dec 2020
BAUR79
SAO 68
08 Dec 2019
BAUR70
SAO 73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bauru winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BauruBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBauru
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
89-69
89
69
+20
95avg 71
H04/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
84-88
84
88
-4
79avg 71
H13/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
75-69
75
69
+6
70avg 71
H17/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
84-85
84
85
-1
73avg 71
H19/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
77-93
77
93
-16
75avg 71
A22/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
81-63
81
63
+18
76avg 71
H25/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
60-62
60
62
-2
51avg 71
H27/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
84-54
84
54
+30
86avg 71
A30/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
85-80 OT
85
80
+5
84avg 71
H03/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
96-85
96
85
+11
93avg 71
A09/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-16
24-16
19-11
24-26
17-21
24-30
16-19
27-18
28-11
18-17
13-18
16-23
12-21
28-20
20-18
24-26
27-27
16-21
18-25
16-20
18-12
20-18
21-16
22-17
16-21
21-10
13-14
10-17
23-12
20-14
21-12
20-16
25-28
15-8
17-14
12-19
20-24
26-17
19-19
31-25
156.3Avg total
81.5Scored
74.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)79.077.7156.7+1.457%
Season at home (20)79.374.2153.6+5.075%
Season away (20)78.881.0159.8-2.340%
Last 10 (10)81.574.8156.3+6.760%
Last 5 (5)81.268.8150.0+12.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)76.889.5166.2-12.80%
vs Similar (16)75.773.9149.6+1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)84.777.9162.6+6.880%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 70
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 70
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
84avg 70
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
W
71-67
71
67
+4
64avg 70
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
88-79
88
79
+9
86avg 70
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
66-62
66
62
+4
60avg 70
H24/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
69-54
69
54
+15
70avg 70
A28/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
81-86
81
86
-5
72avg 70
A30/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
78-77 OT
78
77
+1
71avg 70
H03/05
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
85-96
85
96
-11
83avg 70
H09/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
19-25
25-27
22-16
19-18
16-11
11-16
25-16
19-24
17-27
26-21
31-10
14-21
17-15
16-16
16-16
17-15
24-13
17-9
9-12
19-20
22-19
21-20
16-20
22-27
14-19
12-18
16-11
20-14
24-20
17-26
19-19
25-31
155.5Avg total
77.4Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)76.379.1155.4-2.841%
Season at home (20)76.477.0153.4-0.655%
Season away (19)76.281.3157.5-5.226%
Last 10 (10)77.478.1155.5-0.750%
Last 5 (5)75.875.0150.8+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)72.583.1155.6-10.612%
vs Similar (16)76.378.9155.2-2.638%
vs Weaker (5)78.078.4156.4-0.440%
This opponent (Bauru) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -1.8-1.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -1.8-1.8
BauruSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BauruLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H04/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H13/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H17/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H19/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A22/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H25/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
43-26
43
26
+17
A30/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H03/05
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A09/05
NBB
78.4Avg total
42.0Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.838.378.1+1.550%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.936.277.1+4.771%-
Last 30 away (16)38.840.178.9-1.431%-
Last 10 (10)42.036.478.4+5.670%-
Last 5 (5)40.832.873.6+8.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)39.050.889.8-11.80%-
vs Similar (16)38.635.874.4+2.962%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)41.937.479.3+4.550%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H24/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A28/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A30/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
26-37
26
37
-11
H03/05
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H09/05
NBB
76.4Avg total
37.5Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.139.877.0-2.737%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.838.774.5-2.933%-
Last 30 away (15)38.540.979.4-2.540%-
Last 10 (10)37.538.976.4-1.430%-
Last 5 (5)36.835.071.8+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)34.039.473.4-5.412%-
vs Similar (16)38.439.277.7-0.850%-
vs Weaker (5)37.843.281.0-5.420%-
This opponent (Bauru) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Baurutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bauru: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.620.1
58.1%
50.9%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.9
33.0%
33.0%26.7
🏀 Free throws18.014.1
78.3%
72.7%14.1
They take 61.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 76.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.418.1
55.9%
50.9%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.08.8
31.4%
33.0%26.4
🏀 Free throws20.014.2
71.0%
72.7%14.2
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bauru
WWWLWLLWLW
Sao Paulo
LWLWWWWLLL
#4
League position
#13
+10.0
Net rating
-0.5
109.0
Offensive rating
102.5
99.0
Defensive rating
103.0
54.3%
Effective FG%
51.8%
47.7%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
19.1%
Turnover %
17.4%
28.3%
Off. rebound %
22.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.33
33.0%
3-point %
31.4%
67.2%
Assist %
71.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.0 · 102.5Defence99.0 · 103.0Shooting54.3% · 51.8%3-point %33.0% · 31.4%Ball care19.1% · 17.4%Off. rebounds28.3% · 22.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Bauru   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Bauru wins
6
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
09/05/25Sao Paulo v Bauru85-96
11/01/25Bauru v Sao Paulo75-73
26/10/24Sao Paulo v Bauru78-68
06/01/24Sao Paulo v Bauru89-93 OT
24/10/23Bauru v Sao Paulo87-66
02/03/23Bauru v Sao Paulo74-81
17/11/22Sao Paulo v Bauru82-73
03/05/22Bauru v Sao Paulo71-88
01/05/22Bauru v Sao Paulo62-85
28/04/22Sao Paulo v Bauru90-65
Baurulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/05/25ASao Paulo96-85
03/05/25HPaulistano85-80 OT
30/04/25APaulistano84-54
27/04/25HPaulistano60-62
25/04/25HPaulistano81-63
22/04/25APaulistano77-93
19/04/25HBotafogo84-85
17/04/25HVasco75-69
13/04/25HFlamengo84-88
04/04/25HUniao Corinthians89-69
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/05/25HBauru85-96
03/05/25HBrasilia78-77 OT
30/04/25ABrasilia81-86
28/04/25ABrasilia69-54
24/04/25HBrasilia66-62
19/04/25HBrasilia88-79
12/04/25HMinas71-67
05/04/25ABotafogo85-86
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bauru
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW57%
HomeWLWLW75%
AwayLLLWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402020
Win %57%75%40%
Points / game79.079.378.8
Allowed / game77.774.281.0
Point differential+1.4+5.0-2.3
Avg total156.7153.6159.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%20%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (15)56% (9)50% (6)
Overtime %8%10%5%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL41%
HomeWWWWL55%
AwayLLLWL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392019
Win %41%55%26%
Points / game76.376.476.2
Allowed / game79.177.081.3
Point differential-2.8-0.6-5.2
Avg total155.4153.4157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%20%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (18)67% (9)33% (9)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3934587%82.670.9+11.6
2 Flamengo3930977%84.975.5+9.4
3 Franca3829976%85.475.9+9.5
4 Bauru40231757%79.077.7+1.4
5 Pinheiros40221855%76.574.5+2.0
6 Brasilia38201853%79.979.6+0.3
7 Vasco40211952%77.577.2+0.4
8 Corinthians Paulista39201951%82.180.5+1.6
9 Uniao Corinthians38191950%78.780.9-2.1
10 Sao Jose38182047%78.478.8-0.4
11 Unifacisa39182146%74.775.3-0.6
12 Paulistano39172244%76.876.4+0.5
13 Sao Paulo39162341%76.379.1-2.8
14 Pato37132435%81.384.2-2.9
15 Caxias do Sul38122632%73.681.5-7.9
16 Mogi37112630%73.781.3-7.6
17 Cearense34102429%72.178.0-5.9
18 Botafogo34102429%73.182.1-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bauru2323172184
Sao Paulo1615162067
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