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Bauru vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 75-73
18-21 23-12 18-20 16-20
Position#4
Record10-9
FormLLLLL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game79.8
Bauru 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#13
Record10-8
FormLWWLL
Points / game78.7
Allowed / game78.4
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Panela de Pressao
Other2024-25
Meetings · Bauru v Sao Paulo
14 May 2025
BAUR89
SAO 85
12 May 2025
BAUR84
SAO 67
11 Jan 2025
BAUR75
SAO 73
24 Oct 2023
BAUR87
SAO 66
02 Mar 2023
BAUR74
SAO 81
03 May 2022
BAUR71
SAO 88
01 May 2022
BAUR62
SAO 85
18 Feb 2022
BAUR102
SAO 87
28 Dec 2020
BAUR79
SAO 68
08 Dec 2019
BAUR70
SAO 73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bauru winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BauruBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBauru
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
80-71
80
71
+9
72avg 73
H27/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
70-61
70
61
+9
66avg 73
H30/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
71-66
71
66
+5
61avg 73
A03/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
77-83
77
83
-6
68avg 73
A05/12
NBB
Pato
#14
W
97-91
97
91
+6
89avg 73
H13/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
92-93 OT
92
93
-1
78avg 73
A18/12
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
79-94
79
94
-15
72avg 73
A20/12
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
63-81
63
81
-18
48avg 73
A23/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
73-83
73
83
-10
58avg 73
A27/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
67-77
67
77
-10
63avg 73
A29/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-12
21-24
20-18
18-17
19-13
20-20
17-22
14-6
13-24
21-14
21-15
16-13
21-19
17-16
17-29
22-19
16-18
26-29
26-20
29-24
18-14
19-24
15-22
27-19
20-16
15-39
27-21
17-18
9-13
16-22
20-29
18-17
27-28
16-22
10-18
20-15
18-26
18-18
20-18
11-15
156.9Avg total
76.9Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)78.279.8157.9-1.653%
Season at home (8)79.874.9154.6+4.988%
Season away (11)77.083.4160.4-6.427%
Last 10 (10)76.980.0156.9-3.140%
Last 5 (5)74.885.6160.4-10.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)72.488.4160.9-16.014%
vs Similar (16)78.277.2155.4+1.162%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)79.476.1155.6+3.371%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
52avg 76
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
72avg 76
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
84-88
84
88
-4
79avg 76
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
84-87
84
87
-3
83avg 76
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
91avg 76
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
70-80
70
80
-10
55avg 76
H12/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
82-71
82
71
+11
74avg 76
H15/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
85-83
85
83
+2
76avg 76
A21/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
58avg 76
A23/12
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
76-80
76
80
-4
77avg 76
A28/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-15
13-25
23-20
22-19
17-13
20-16
15-24
21-20
15-22
21-23
26-20
22-23
23-21
17-12
21-22
23-32
15-21
17-18
28-19
29-21
12-25
20-20
21-19
17-16
27-19
18-14
20-25
17-13
30-23
27-25
13-21
15-14
21-14
19-13
13-24
10-26
15-24
29-19
18-21
14-16
158.4Avg total
78.1Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)78.778.4157.1+0.356%
Season at home (9)79.776.2155.9+3.467%
Season away (9)77.880.6158.3-2.844%
Last 10 (10)78.180.3158.4-2.240%
Last 5 (5)75.278.2153.4-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)81.383.4164.7-2.157%
vs Similar (11)78.580.3158.7-1.845%
vs Weaker (5)83.478.6162.0+4.860%
This opponent (Bauru) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -1.0-1.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -1.0-1.0
BauruSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BauruLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H27/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H30/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A03/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
38-35
38
35
+3
A05/12
NBB
Pato
#14
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H13/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A18/12
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
35-55
35
55
-20
A20/12
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
25-35
25
35
-10
A23/12
NBB
Minas
#1
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A27/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A29/12
NBB
78.2Avg total
37.1Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.939.377.2-1.550%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.037.675.6+0.457%-
Last 30 away (16)37.840.978.6-3.144%-
Last 10 (10)37.141.178.2-4.030%-
Last 5 (5)35.244.479.6-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)35.647.683.1-12.014%-
vs Similar (16)38.536.875.2+1.869%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)38.737.075.7+1.743%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
23-40
23
40
-17
A11/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A14/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A17/11
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
32-45
32
45
-13
H12/12
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H15/12
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A21/12
NBB
Minas
#1
W
40-27
40
27
+13
A23/12
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A28/12
NBB
76.8Avg total
38.6Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.939.879.7+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.738.679.4+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)39.140.980.0-1.844%-
Last 10 (10)38.638.276.8+0.460%-
Last 5 (5)43.639.282.8+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)39.540.379.8-0.843%-
vs Similar (11)39.641.280.8-1.545%-
vs Weaker (5)41.435.677.0+5.880%-
This opponent (Bauru) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Baurutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bauru: 75.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.217.2
46.2%
50.9%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.19.1
31.3%
33.0%27.3
🏀 Free throws21.413.8
64.5%
72.7%13.8
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 76.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.519.5
58.2%
50.9%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.17.8
29.9%
33.0%23.4
🏀 Free throws20.814.5
69.7%
72.7%14.5
They take 59.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bauru
LLLLLWLWWW
Sao Paulo
LLWWLWLLWL
#4
League position
#13
-5.1
Net rating
-3.5
99.2
Offensive rating
103.6
104.3
Defensive rating
107.1
46.5%
Effective FG%
52.3%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
17.8%
Turnover %
18.9%
30.9%
Off. rebound %
25.0%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.35
31.3%
3-point %
29.9%
60.1%
Assist %
61.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence99.2 · 103.6Defence104.3 · 107.1Shooting46.5% · 52.3%3-point %31.3% · 29.9%Ball care17.8% · 18.9%Off. rebounds30.9% · 25.0%Free throws0.32 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Bauru   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Bauru wins
7
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
26/10/24Sao Paulo v Bauru78-68
06/01/24Sao Paulo v Bauru89-93 OT
24/10/23Bauru v Sao Paulo87-66
02/03/23Bauru v Sao Paulo74-81
17/11/22Sao Paulo v Bauru82-73
03/05/22Bauru v Sao Paulo71-88
01/05/22Bauru v Sao Paulo62-85
28/04/22Sao Paulo v Bauru90-65
18/02/22Bauru v Sao Paulo102-87
16/01/22Sao Paulo v Bauru78-73
Baurulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24ABrasilia67-77
27/12/24AMinas73-83
23/12/24AVasco63-81
20/12/24AFlamengo79-94
18/12/24ABotafogo92-93 OT
13/12/24HPato97-91
05/12/24AUniao Corinthians77-83
03/12/24ACaxias do Sul71-66
30/11/24HUnifacisa70-61
27/11/24HCearense80-71
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/12/24APaulistano76-80
23/12/24AMinas63-77
21/12/24ABrasilia85-83
15/12/24HBotafogo82-71
12/12/24HUniao Corinthians70-80
10/12/24HCaxias do Sul89-79
06/12/24HVasco84-87
17/11/24AUnifacisa84-88
14/11/24ACearense80-79 OT
11/11/24ASao Jose68-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bauru
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL53%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayLLLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19811
Win %53%88%27%
Points / game78.279.877.0
Allowed / game79.874.983.4
Point differential-1.6+4.9-6.4
Avg total157.9154.6160.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)67% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %11%12%9%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL56%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayWLWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %56%67%44%
Points / game78.779.777.8
Allowed / game78.476.280.6
Point differential+0.3+3.4-2.8
Avg total157.1155.9158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%44%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)67% (3)50% (6)
Overtime %6%0%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas1917289%83.370.0+13.3
2 Flamengo1915479%83.972.0+11.9
3 Brasilia1913668%83.880.9+2.9
4 Franca1911858%81.178.3+2.8
5 Pinheiros1911858%76.374.7+1.6
6 Uniao Corinthians1911858%78.378.6-0.3
7 Sao Paulo1810856%78.778.4+0.3
8 Vasco1910953%74.573.7+0.8
9 Bauru1910953%78.279.8-1.6
10 Unifacisa20101050%75.475.7-0.2
11 Paulistano1991047%77.775.0+2.7
12 Sao Jose1991047%75.775.2+0.5
13 Corinthians Paulista1981142%80.780.9-0.3
14 Pato2071335%81.885.0-3.2
15 Botafogo1961332%72.580.6-8.1
16 Mogi2061430%71.979.5-7.6
17 Caxias do Sul1951426%72.279.1-6.9
18 Cearense1941521%69.277.4-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bauru1823181675
Sao Paulo2112202073
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