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Brescia vs Virtus Roma Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 13 Apr 2020
Tip-off: 16:15
Postponed
Position#3
Record14-7
FormWWLLW
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game74.0
vs
Position#15
Record7-15
FormLLLLL
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game85.5
ItalyLega ARound 31
Domestic2019-20
Meetings · Brescia v Virtus Roma
31 Oct 2020
BRE64
VRO70
13 Apr 2020
BRE v VRO
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brescia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Roma win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pistoia
#16
W
86-74
86
74
+12
H08/12
Lega A
Virtus Roma
#15
W
83-53
83
53
+30
A22/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
91-76
91
76
+15
H26/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
W
93-82
93
82
+11
A29/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
70-64
70
64
+6
H04/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
W
87-81
87
81
+6
A11/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
W
78-72
78
72
+6
H19/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
82-86
82
86
-4
H26/01
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
56-63
56
63
-7
A02/02
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
76-74
76
74
+2
H09/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
20-20
14-14
24-21
25-15
22-13
16-12
20-13
20-29
19-22
28-15
24-10
23-28
27-18
31-19
12-17
10-14
15-18
16-15
29-17
24-22
24-15
18-21
21-23
9-15
20-19
27-17
22-21
15-22
26-18
25-22
16-24
15-19
18-14
12-15
11-15
16-17
18-20
14-25
28-12
152.7Avg total
80.2Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)81.374.0155.3+7.367%
Season at home (11)85.274.9160.1+10.382%
Season away (10)77.073.0150.0+4.050%
Last 10 (10)80.272.5152.7+7.780%
Last 5 (5)75.875.2151.0+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)83.889.0172.8-5.225%
vs Similar (10)80.279.5159.7+0.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)83.372.8156.1+10.681%
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#8
W
88-82
88
82
+6
A14/12
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
53-83
53
83
-30
H22/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
L
77-79
77
79
-2
A26/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A29/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
68-97
68
97
-29
H12/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
81-88 OT
81
88
-7
A19/01
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
92-103
92
103
-11
A26/01
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
L
80-81
80
81
-1
H02/02
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
L
92-95
92
95
-3
A08/02
Lega A
Sassari
#2
L
88-93
88
93
-5
H07/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-30
17-22
13-15
28-15
15-25
13-22
12-16
13-20
17-10
26-30
21-18
13-21
19-31
22-27
25-16
22-22
14-22
15-28
21-21
18-26
15-20
20-12
23-23
18-21
22-32
29-26
24-22
17-23
21-21
27-15
14-25
18-20
18-22
23-19
16-28
35-26
19-24
16-30
27-19
26-20
170.4Avg total
80.7Scored
89.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)78.585.5164.0-7.032%
Season at home (11)76.783.2159.9-6.536%
Season away (11)80.387.7168.0-7.527%
Last 10 (10)80.789.7170.4-9.010%
Last 5 (5)86.692.0178.6-5.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)78.587.8166.3-9.420%
vs Similar (5)75.275.2150.4+0.040%
vs Weaker (5)88.275.4163.6+12.8100%
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -0.6-0.6
BresciaVirtus Roma
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pistoia
#16
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H08/12
Lega A
Virtus Roma
#15
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A22/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H26/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A29/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H04/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A11/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
29-34
29
34
-5
H19/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H26/01
Lega A
Trento
#8
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A02/02
Lega A
Trieste
#14
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H09/02
Lega A
77.1Avg total
39.4Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.939.179.0+0.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.238.979.2+1.362%-
Last 30 away (14)39.639.378.9+0.343%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.777.1+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)37.036.273.2+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.842.281.0-3.550%-
vs Similar (10)38.938.677.5+0.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)40.938.679.5+2.256%-
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#8
L
47-52
47
52
-5
A14/12
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
28-47
28
47
-19
H22/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A26/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
L
41-58
41
58
-17
A29/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H12/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A19/01
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A26/01
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
48-36
48
36
+12
H02/02
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A08/02
Lega A
Sassari
#2
L
35-54
35
54
-19
H07/03
Lega A
86.6Avg total
39.8Scored
46.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.443.283.6-2.847%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.741.782.3-1.067%-
Last 30 away (15)40.144.884.9-4.727%-
Last 10 (10)39.846.886.6-7.030%-
Last 5 (5)42.044.286.2-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)38.546.084.5-7.530%-
vs Similar (5)42.835.478.2+7.480%-
vs Weaker (5)45.639.885.4+5.880%-
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 79.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.419.4
50.5%
52.0%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.09.2
41.8%
35.1%27.6
🏀 Free throws16.713.0
77.8%
73.6%13.0
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Roma: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.6 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.524.3
54.6%
52.0%48.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.96.7
32.1%
35.1%20.1
🏀 Free throws16.511.3
68.5%
73.6%11.3
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Apr 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Brescia
WLLWWWWWWW
Virtus Roma
LLLLLLLLLW
#3
League position
#15
+11.9
Net rating
-9.5
117.1
Offensive rating
107.4
105.1
Defensive rating
116.9
55.0%
Effective FG%
52.5%
48.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
16.7%
Turnover %
16.9%
31.4%
Off. rebound %
29.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.25
41.8%
3-point %
32.1%
59.1%
Assist %
51.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence117.1 · 107.4Defence105.1 · 116.9Shooting55.0% · 52.5%3-point %41.8% · 32.1%Ball care16.7% · 16.9%Off. rebounds31.4% · 29.2%Free throws0.28 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 10%
■ Brescia   ■ Virtus Roma
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Brescia wins
0
Virtus Roma wins
DateGameScore
22/12/19Virtus Roma v Brescia53-83
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/20HTrieste76-74
02/02/20ATrento56-63
26/01/20HBrindisi82-86
19/01/20HOlimpia Milano78-72
11/01/20AReggiana87-81
04/01/20HVenezia70-64
29/12/19ACantu93-82
26/12/19HCremona91-76
22/12/19AVirtus Roma83-53
08/12/19HPistoia86-74
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/20HSassari88-93
08/02/20AFortitudo Bologna92-95
02/02/20HPistoia80-81
26/01/20ACremona92-103
19/01/20ABrindisi81-88 OT
12/01/20HVirtus Bologna68-97
29/12/19AReggiana88-96
26/12/19AVenezia77-79
22/12/19HBrescia53-83
14/12/19ATrento88-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brescia
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeWWWLW82%
AwayLWWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %67%82%50%
Points / game81.385.277.0
Allowed / game74.074.973.0
Point differential+7.3+10.3+4.0
Avg total155.3160.1150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%45%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virtus Roma
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL32%
HomeWLLLL36%
AwayLLLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %32%36%27%
Points / game78.576.780.3
Allowed / game85.583.287.7
Point differential-7.0-6.5-7.5
Avg total164.0159.9168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%18%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)33% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %5%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2018290%86.075.0+10.9
2 Sassari2116576%85.575.9+9.6
3 Brescia2114767%81.374.0+7.3
4 Olimpia Milano2114767%80.374.0+6.3
5 Brindisi2113862%84.680.8+3.8
6 Cremona2012860%81.380.8+0.5
7 Venezia21111052%78.075.3+2.7
8 Trento21111052%77.979.3-1.4
9 Fortitudo Bologna21111052%77.379.5-2.2
10 Varese1991047%82.680.1+2.5
11 Cantu2091145%76.779.0-2.4
12 Reggiana2191243%82.984.0-1.0
13 Treviso2181338%77.179.2-2.1
14 Trieste2271532%76.080.5-4.5
15 Virtus Roma2271532%78.585.5-7.0
16 Pistoia2271532%74.583.3-8.8
17 Pesaro201195%79.292.5-13.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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