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Canberra Capitals W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 77-74
22-14 16-24 22-18 17-18
Position#5
Record6-8
FormWWWLL
Points / game72.1
Allowed / game78.5
Canberra Capitals W 🏆
Australia
vs
Perth Lynx W
Australia
Position#2
Record12-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game74.8
AustraliaNBL WRound 12· AIS Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W
04 Jan 2026
CANB77
PERT74
29 Nov 2025
CANB67
PERT91
29 Dec 2024
CANB80
PERT89
14 Nov 2024
CANB90
PERT92
11 Jan 2024
CANB81
PERT75
04 Mar 2023
CANB94
PERT107
21 Dec 2022
CANB83
PERT97
14 Jan 2022
CANB69
PERT88
26 Nov 2020
CANB73
PERT70
22 Jan 2020
CANB89
PERT75
24 Nov 2019
CANB84
PERT66
25 Jan 2019
CANB95
PERT76
16 Dec 2018
CANB92
PERT60
29 Dec 2017
CANB74
PERT69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canberra Capitals W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
71-73
71
73
-2
59avg 68
A08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
96-56
96
56
+40
97avg 68
H15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
61-101
61
101
-40
40avg 68
A22/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
67-91
67
91
-24
55avg 68
H29/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
76-75
76
75
+1
70avg 68
A07/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
76-71
76
71
+5
70avg 68
H09/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
97-71
97
71
+26
96avg 68
H12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
77-73
77
73
+4
76avg 68
H20/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
49-75
49
75
-26
32avg 68
A23/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
61-91
61
91
-30
43avg 68
H27/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-28
19-16
21-11
13-18
34-10
21-16
25-9
16-21
18-26
13-31
13-23
17-21
17-23
19-20
21-27
10-21
16-18
16-17
19-18
25-22
20-18
24-25
16-17
16-11
34-23
13-17
23-19
27-12
21-19
15-19
17-15
24-20
14-21
15-13
12-23
8-18
9-26
16-24
21-17
15-24
150.8Avg total
73.1Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)72.178.5150.6-6.443%
Season at home (7)77.779.7157.4-2.057%
Season away (7)66.677.3143.9-10.729%
Last 10 (10)73.177.7150.8-4.650%
Last 5 (5)72.076.2148.2-4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)70.686.2156.8-15.623%
vs Similar (14)78.077.1155.1+0.950%
vs Weaker (3)84.368.7153.0+15.7100%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
69-88
69
88
-19
59avg 77
A11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
79-64
79
64
+15
76avg 77
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
58-87
58
87
-29
46avg 77
A23/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
91-67
91
67
+24
83avg 77
A29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
98-81
98
81
+17
93avg 77
H05/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
97-81
97
81
+16
97avg 77
A14/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
109-82
109
82
+27
108avg 77
A21/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
75-49
75
49
+26
69avg 77
H23/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
106-78
106
78
+28
108avg 77
H28/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
93-75
93
75
+18
93avg 77
H02/01
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-23
19-15
14-26
11-24
21-19
17-16
28-15
13-14
20-16
13-21
10-23
15-27
23-17
20-19
27-21
21-10
33-21
30-14
23-25
12-21
25-26
24-23
25-19
23-13
31-29
30-17
25-20
23-16
21-14
13-15
23-12
18-8
27-15
33-23
23-18
23-22
27-19
24-21
22-12
20-23
162.7Avg total
87.5Scored
75.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)83.374.8158.1+8.580%
Season at home (8)84.171.1155.2+13.088%
Season away (7)82.379.0161.3+3.371%
Last 10 (10)87.575.2162.7+12.380%
Last 5 (5)96.073.0169.0+23.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.581.5160.0-3.050%
vs Similar (5)83.488.8172.2-5.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)85.175.7160.8+9.583%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +5.4+5.4Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +0.1+0.1
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +5.4+5.4Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +0.1+0.1
Canberra Capitals WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
55-26
55
26
+29
H15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
31-57
31
57
-26
A22/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H29/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A07/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H09/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H12/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H20/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A23/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
25-50
25
50
-25
H27/12
NBL W
78.2Avg total
37.2Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.541.680.1-3.240%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.340.381.5+1.060%-
Last 30 away (15)35.743.078.7-7.320%-
Last 10 (10)37.241.078.2-3.830%-
Last 5 (5)36.241.077.2-4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)37.245.582.7-8.431%-
vs Similar (14)38.838.977.6-0.143%-
vs Weaker (3)42.737.780.3+5.067%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A23/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
63-35
63
35
+28
H05/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A14/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
61-46
61
46
+15
A21/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H23/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
60-38
60
38
+22
H28/12
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H02/01
NBL W
85.9Avg total
47.6Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.140.384.4+3.757%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.438.183.4+7.364%-
Last 30 away (16)42.942.385.2+0.650%-
Last 10 (10)47.638.385.9+9.380%-
Last 5 (5)51.040.491.4+10.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.541.585.0+2.050%-
vs Similar (5)41.046.487.4-5.40%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)44.838.983.7+5.970%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 72.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.020.3
43.2%
47.8%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.57.2
35.1%
32.8%21.6
🏀 Free throws15.110.5
69.5%
73.3%10.5
They take 67.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 30% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 86.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.720.6
51.9%
47.8%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.310.9
36.0%
32.8%32.7
🏀 Free throws17.712.8
72.3%
73.3%12.8
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Canberra Capitals W
LLWWWWLLWL
Perth Lynx W
WWWWWWWLWL
#5
League position
#2
-1.7
Net rating
+16.1
96.3
Offensive rating
113.2
98.1
Defensive rating
97.2
46.1%
Effective FG%
52.8%
47.4%
Opp. effective FG%
44.2%
19.4%
Turnover %
17.8%
31.8%
Off. rebound %
36.8%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.1%
3-point %
36.0%
65.1%
Assist %
61.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence96.3 · 113.2Defence98.1 · 97.2Shooting46.1% · 52.8%3-point %35.1% · 36.0%Ball care19.4% · 17.8%Off. rebounds31.8% · 36.8%Free throws0.22 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Canberra Capitals W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Canberra Capitals W wins
9
Perth Lynx W wins
DateGameScore
23/12/25Perth Lynx W v Canberra Capitals W75-49
29/11/25Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W67-91
29/12/24Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W80-89
12/12/24Perth Lynx W v Canberra Capitals W87-63
14/11/24Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W90-92
18/02/24Perth Lynx W v Canberra Capitals W94-79
11/01/24Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W81-75
27/12/23Perth Lynx W v Canberra Capitals W98-90
04/03/23Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W94-107
21/12/22Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W83-97
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/12/25HSydney W61-91
23/12/25APerth Lynx W49-75
20/12/25HGeelong Venom W77-73
12/12/25HSouthside W97-71
09/12/25HAdelaide Lightning W76-71
07/12/25AGeelong Venom W76-75
29/11/25HPerth Lynx W67-91
22/11/25ATownsville W61-101
15/11/25HSydney W96-56
08/11/25ABendigo W71-73
Perth Lynx Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/01/26HAdelaide Lightning W93-75
28/12/25HGeelong Venom W106-78
23/12/25HCanberra Capitals W75-49
21/12/25AAdelaide Lightning W109-82
14/12/25ATownsville W97-81
05/12/25HSouthside W98-81
29/11/25ACanberra Capitals W91-67
23/11/25ABendigo W58-87
16/11/25HBendigo W79-64
11/11/25AGeelong Venom W69-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL43%
HomeLWWWL57%
AwayLLLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %43%57%29%
Points / game72.177.766.6
Allowed / game78.579.777.3
Point differential-6.4-2.0-10.7
Avg total150.6157.4143.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW80%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayLLWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %80%88%71%
Points / game83.384.182.3
Allowed / game74.871.179.0
Point differential+8.5+13.0+3.3
Avg total158.1155.2161.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%62%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1513287%75.766.6+9.1
2 Perth Lynx W1512380%83.374.8+8.5
3 Townsville W1411379%87.071.0+16.0
4 Southside W157847%78.977.3+1.6
5 Canberra Capitals W146843%72.178.5-6.4
6 Adelaide Lightning W1541127%76.184.9-8.8
7 Sydney W1641225%75.785.8-10.1
8 Geelong Venom W1631319%74.182.1-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Canberra Capitals W2216221777
Perth Lynx W1424181874
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