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Canberra Capitals W vs Perth Lynx W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 29 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 06:00
Final 67-91
17-23 19-20 21-27 10-21
Position#5
Record2-5
FormLLLWL
Points / game72.4
Allowed / game78.9
vs
Position#2
Record5-3
FormLWLWL
Points / game72.5
Allowed / game76.1
AustraliaNBL WRound 7· AIS Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Canberra Capitals W v Perth Lynx W
04 Jan 2026
CANB77
PERT74
29 Nov 2025
CANB67
PERT91
29 Dec 2024
CANB80
PERT89
14 Nov 2024
CANB90
PERT92
11 Jan 2024
CANB81
PERT75
04 Mar 2023
CANB94
PERT107
21 Dec 2022
CANB83
PERT97
14 Jan 2022
CANB69
PERT88
26 Nov 2020
CANB73
PERT70
22 Jan 2020
CANB89
PERT75
24 Nov 2019
CANB84
PERT66
25 Jan 2019
CANB95
PERT76
16 Dec 2018
CANB92
PERT60
29 Dec 2017
CANB74
PERT69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canberra Capitals W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth Lynx W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
W
91-77
91
77
+14
85avg 67
A01/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
71-86
71
86
-15
60avg 67
H09/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
83-74
83
74
+9
76avg 67
H15/02
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
80-71
80
71
+9
76avg 67
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
70-105
70
105
-35
58avg 67
H25/10
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
65-73
65
73
-8
54avg 67
A01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
64-73
64
73
-9
55avg 67
A06/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
71-73
71
73
-2
59avg 67
A08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
96-56
96
56
+40
97avg 67
H15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
61-101
61
101
-40
40avg 67
A22/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-25
18-16
24-13
21-23
17-16
19-22
14-16
21-32
17-17
22-21
21-21
23-15
24-16
24-22
18-18
14-15
21-28
12-26
25-21
12-30
21-22
19-19
10-17
15-15
14-17
12-14
12-21
26-21
18-28
19-16
21-11
13-18
34-10
21-16
25-9
16-21
18-26
13-31
13-23
17-21
154.1Avg total
75.2Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)72.478.9151.3-6.429%
Season at home (2)83.080.5163.5+2.550%
Season away (5)68.278.2146.4-10.020%
Last 10 (10)75.278.9154.1-3.740%
Last 5 (5)71.475.2146.6-3.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)73.788.3161.9-14.620%
vs Similar (12)80.380.8161.1-0.433%
vs Weaker (3)84.368.7153.0+15.7100%
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
L
87-92
87
92
-5
79avg 71
H22/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
76-106
76
106
-30
53avg 71
A26/02
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
75-72
75
72
+3
64avg 71
A19/10
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
73-67
73
67
+6
68avg 71
H26/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
77-76
77
76
+1
68avg 71
A01/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
70-79
70
79
-9
56avg 71
H04/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
79-76
79
76
+3
64avg 71
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
69-88
69
88
-19
59avg 71
A11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
79-64
79
64
+15
76avg 71
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
58-87
58
87
-29
46avg 71
A23/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-27
20-16
30-26
21-23
21-26
19-28
13-24
23-28
26-9
18-24
13-18
18-21
16-22
18-20
14-16
25-9
20-15
20-22
18-20
19-19
17-26
26-18
7-18
20-17
18-22
21-20
13-24
27-10
25-23
19-15
14-26
11-24
21-19
17-16
28-15
13-14
20-16
13-21
10-23
15-27
155.0Avg total
74.3Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)72.576.1148.6-3.662%
Season at home (4)75.271.5146.8+3.875%
Season away (4)69.880.8150.5-11.050%
Last 10 (10)74.380.7155.0-6.450%
Last 5 (5)71.078.8149.8-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.378.3152.7-4.033%
vs Similar (6)84.387.8172.2-3.533%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)83.077.9160.9+5.181%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -5.0-5.0Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -5.0-5.0Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
Canberra Capitals WPerth Lynx W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A01/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H09/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/02
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
33-54
33
54
-21
H25/10
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
26-31
26
31
-5
A06/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
55-26
55
26
+29
H15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
31-57
31
57
-26
A22/11
NBL W
79.9Avg total
39.1Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.143.783.7-3.640%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.841.685.4+2.264%-
Last 30 away (16)36.845.582.3-8.719%-
Last 10 (10)39.140.879.9-1.740%-
Last 5 (5)37.839.877.6-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)39.047.586.5-8.533%-
vs Similar (12)40.840.381.1+0.442%-
vs Weaker (3)42.737.780.3+5.067%-
This opponent (Perth Lynx W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Perth Lynx WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#3
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H22/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A26/02
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
44-33
44
33
+11
A19/10
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H26/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A01/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H04/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A11/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H16/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A23/11
NBL W
79.6Avg total
39.1Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.041.784.7+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.240.683.8+2.650%-
Last 30 away (16)42.842.785.5+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)39.140.579.6-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)39.439.278.6+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)40.738.379.0+2.367%-
vs Similar (6)42.745.788.3-3.017%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)43.441.084.5+2.457%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 76.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.621.7
46.6%
47.8%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.17.0
30.3%
32.8%21.0
🏀 Free throws17.512.5
71.4%
73.3%12.5
They take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perth Lynx Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth Lynx W: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.2 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.619.9
44.6%
47.8%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.56.4
26.1%
32.8%19.2
🏀 Free throws19.914.5
72.9%
73.3%14.5
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Canberra Capitals W
LWLLLLWWLW
Perth Lynx W
LWLWLWWWLL
#5
League position
#2
+0.0
Net rating
-8.1
95.0
Offensive rating
92.7
95.0
Defensive rating
100.7
46.2%
Effective FG%
42.7%
46.4%
Opp. effective FG%
47.2%
19.8%
Turnover %
17.2%
29.8%
Off. rebound %
26.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.29
30.3%
3-point %
26.1%
59.6%
Assist %
59.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence95.0 · 92.7Defence95.0 · 100.7Shooting46.2% · 42.7%3-point %30.3% · 26.1%Ball care19.8% · 17.2%Off. rebounds29.8% · 26.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Canberra Capitals W   ■ Perth Lynx W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/25ATownsville W61-101
15/11/25HSydney W96-56
08/11/25ABendigo W71-73
06/11/25ASydney W64-73
01/11/25AAdelaide Lightning W65-73
25/10/25HTownsville W70-105
18/10/25ASouthside W80-71
15/02/25HBendigo W83-74
09/02/25HSydney W71-86
01/02/25AGeelong United W91-77
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/11/25ABendigo W58-87
16/11/25HBendigo W79-64
11/11/25AGeelong Venom W69-88
09/11/25HSouthside W79-76
04/11/25HTownsville W70-79
01/11/25AGeelong Venom W77-76
26/10/25HSydney W73-67
19/10/25AAdelaide Lightning W75-72
26/02/25ATownsville W76-106
22/02/25HTownsville W87-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL29%
HomeLW50%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games725
Win %29%50%20%
Points / game72.483.068.2
Allowed / game78.980.578.2
Point differential-6.4+2.5-10.0
Avg total151.3163.5146.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Perth Lynx W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL62%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game72.575.269.8
Allowed / game76.171.580.8
Point differential-3.6+3.8-11.0
Avg total148.6146.8150.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W87188%90.168.8+21.4
2 Bendigo W86275%75.268.8+6.5
3 Perth Lynx W85362%72.576.1-3.6
4 Southside W63350%77.376.7+0.7
5 Adelaide Lightning W83538%76.986.1-9.2
6 Geelong Venom W93633%80.078.3+1.7
7 Sydney W103730%74.083.4-9.4
8 Canberra Capitals W72529%72.478.9-6.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Canberra Capitals W1719211067
Perth Lynx W2320272191
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