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Virginia vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 12 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 49-59
17-24 32-35
Position#36
Record25-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game68.4
Allowed / game60.3
Virginia
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#39
Record25-8
FormWWWWW
Points / game72.9
Allowed / game64.4
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Virginia v Duke
17 Feb 2025
VIRG62
DUKE80
11 Mar 2023
VIRG49
DUKE59
11 Feb 2023
VIRG69
DUKE62
23 Feb 2022
VIRG61
DUKE65
29 Feb 2020
VIRG52
DUKE50
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#66
W
63-50
63
50
+13
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
W
69-62 OT
69
62
+7
H11/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A16/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#221
L
48-63
48
63
-15
A23/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A25/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
64-57
64
57
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
75-60
75
60
+15
H04/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H10/03
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-20
29-30
25-27
33-31
29-26
32-32
29-25
28-30
21-28
27-35
26-42
37-29
28-23
36-34
36-20
39-40
25-24
43-35
37-25
39-31
123.5Avg total
64.4Scored
59.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)68.460.3128.7+8.181%
Season at home (19)69.156.8125.8+12.395%
Season away (12)67.465.8133.2+1.658%
Last 10 (10)64.459.1123.5+5.380%
Last 5 (5)69.260.6129.8+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.059.5117.5-1.550%
vs Similar ◀ (15)69.462.8132.2+6.673%
vs Weaker (13)68.557.5126.0+11.192%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#122
L
59-81
59
81
-22
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
L
62-69 OT
62
69
-7
A11/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H15/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#180
W
77-55
77
55
+22
A18/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H21/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H26/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H01/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A04/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#72
W
96-69
96
69
+27
H09/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
W
85-78
85
78
+7
A11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
26-40
33-41
27-25
31-33
31-23
37-41
40-27
37-28
42-33
37-29
43-32
38-33
33-29
38-38
33-31
29-26
48-32
48-37
41-36
44-42
140.7Avg total
74.0Scored
66.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)72.964.4137.3+8.576%
Season at home (18)77.661.3138.9+16.3100%
Season away (15)67.368.1135.4-0.747%
Last 10 (10)74.066.7140.7+7.380%
Last 5 (5)79.067.2146.2+11.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)70.268.3138.5+1.862%
vs Weaker (17)75.163.9138.9+11.288%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: +5.6+5.62nd half2nd half: +1.6+1.62nd half: +2.4+2.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: +5.6+5.62nd half2nd half: +1.6+1.62nd half: +2.4+2.4
VirginiaDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#66
W
34-20
34
20
+14
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
25-27
25
27
-2
H11/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A16/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
29-25
29
25
+4
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#221
L
21-28
21
28
-7
A23/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A25/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
28-23
28
23
+5
H01/03
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
36-20
36
20
+16
H04/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
W
25-24
25
24
+1
H10/03
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H11/03
NCAA
55.0Avg total
29.0Scored
26.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.527.659.1+3.963%-
Last 30 at home (18)31.624.856.4+6.872%-
Last 30 away (12)31.331.863.2-0.550%-
Last 10 (10)29.026.055.0+3.070%-
Last 5 (5)30.426.857.2+3.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)26.525.051.5+1.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)30.929.560.5+1.447%-
vs Weaker (13)32.925.858.8+7.185%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#122
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
W
27-25
27
25
+2
A11/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
31-23
31
23
+8
H15/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#180
W
40-27
40
27
+13
A18/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H26/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H01/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A04/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#72
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H09/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A11/03
NCAA
67.2Avg total
36.4Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.432.568.9+3.877%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.530.969.4+7.688%-
Last 30 away (14)33.934.468.4-0.564%-
Last 10 (10)36.430.867.2+5.690%-
Last 5 (5)39.632.071.6+7.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)35.034.969.9+0.169%-
vs Weaker (17)37.430.768.1+6.782%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Virginia wins
2
Duke wins
DateGameScore
11/02/23Virginia v Duke69-62 OT
24/02/22Virginia v Duke61-65
08/02/22Duke v Virginia68-69
21/02/21Duke v Virginia66-65
29/02/20Virginia v Duke52-50
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/23HClemson76-56
10/03/23HNorth Carolina68-59
04/03/23HLouisville75-60
01/03/23HClemson64-57
25/02/23ANorth Carolina63-71
23/02/23ABoston College48-63
18/02/23HNotre Dame57-55
16/02/23ALouisville61-58
11/02/23HDuke69-62 OT
08/02/23HNC State63-50
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/23AMiami (FL)85-78
09/03/23HPittsburgh96-69
04/03/23ANorth Carolina62-57
01/03/23HNC State71-67
26/02/23HVirginia Tech81-65
21/02/23HLouisville79-62
18/02/23ASyracuse77-55
15/02/23HNotre Dame68-64
11/02/23AVirginia62-69 OT
07/02/23AMiami (FL)59-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW81%
HomeWWWWW95%
AwayWLWLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311912
Win %81%95%58%
Points / game68.469.167.4
Allowed / game60.356.865.8
Point differential+8.1+12.3+1.6
Avg total128.7125.8133.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%47%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)100% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %3%5%0%
Duke
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW76%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLWWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331815
Win %76%100%47%
Points / game72.977.667.3
Allowed / game64.461.368.1
Point differential+8.5+16.3-0.7
Avg total137.3138.9135.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%61%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won78% (9)100% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virginia3125681%68.460.3+8.1
2 Duke3325876%72.964.4+8.5
3 NC State33231070%78.270.8+7.4
4 Clemson33231070%75.067.9+7.2
5 Pittsburgh33221167%76.170.5+5.6
6 North Carolina33201361%76.270.9+5.3
7 Miami (FL)64372758%76.573.3+3.2
8 Virginia Tech33191458%74.269.8+4.5
9 Wake Forest33191458%76.673.8+2.8
10 Syracuse32171553%74.172.9+1.2
11 Boston College33161748%66.670.2-3.6
12 Georgia Tech33151845%69.770.8-1.0
13 Stanford33141942%70.368.4+2.0
14 Notre Dame32112134%69.672.1-2.5
15 SMU Mustangs32102231%70.275.6-5.3
16 Florida State3292328%69.376.2-6.9
17 Louisville3242812%63.975.8-11.8
18 California323299%58.370.1-11.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia173249
Duke243559
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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