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Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 04 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 105-86
17-18 28-23 30-17 30-28
Position#3
Record22-7
FormWWLWW
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game75.1
Flamengo 🏆
Brazil
vs
Sao Paulo
Brazil
Position#13
Record11-19
FormLLLLL
Points / game75.5
Allowed / game79.1
BrazilNBB· Maracanãzinho
Other2024-25
Meetings · Flamengo v Sao Paulo
03 Apr 2025
FLAM105
SAO 86
28 Mar 2024
FLAM88
SAO 78
12 May 2023
FLAM72
SAO 80
01 Apr 2023
FLAM79
SAO 70
02 Apr 2022
FLAM88
SAO 78
22 May 2021
FLAM96
SAO 93
27 Feb 2021
FLAM93
SAO 74
25 Oct 2019
FLAM95
SAO 102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flamengo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FlamengoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFlamengo
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
84-79
84
79
+5
79avg 81
H13/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
85-71
85
71
+14
87avg 81
H15/02
NBB
Pato
#14
W
91-81
91
81
+10
92avg 81
H28/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
82-77
82
77
+5
78avg 81
A03/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
82-85
82
85
-3
81avg 81
A05/03
NBB
Paisas
#7
W
89-72
89
72
+17
68avg 81
A09/03
Champions League Americas
Paisas
#7
W
102-65
102
65
+37
101avg 81
H14/03
Champions League Americas
Minas
#1
L
70-94
70
94
-24
59avg 81
A19/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
84-78
84
78
+6
79avg 81
H27/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
92-85
92
85
+7
92avg 81
A29/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
21-19
24-17
19-22
17-22
30-19
24-17
14-13
19-12
27-22
25-22
20-25
21-20
18-19
25-17
18-21
20-15
20-22
19-21
23-27
23-19
25-24
20-17
21-12
29-12
37-21
23-17
13-15
23-27
15-20
21-22
11-25
16-19
16-22
29-15
23-22
20-26
21-21
22-15
29-23
164.8Avg total
86.1Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)84.075.1159.1+8.976%
Season at home (15)83.774.0157.7+9.780%
Season away (14)84.476.3160.7+8.171%
Last 10 (10)86.178.7164.8+7.480%
Last 5 (5)87.478.8166.2+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)76.080.0156.0-4.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)88.875.2164.1+13.685%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-89
80
89
-9
75avg 71
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
L
66-82
66
82
-16
60avg 71
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
66-90
66
90
-24
50avg 71
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 71
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 71
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 71
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
78-88
78
88
-10
65avg 71
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 71
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 71
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 71
H28/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-22
18-20
19-28
20-19
24-16
14-20
18-25
10-21
18-22
14-31
18-18
16-19
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
15-23
16-18
17-31
30-16
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
152.2Avg total
70.8Scored
81.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)75.579.1154.6-3.637%
Season at home (15)76.077.3153.3-1.347%
Season away (15)75.180.9156.0-5.927%
Last 10 (10)70.881.4152.2-10.610%
Last 5 (5)71.481.4152.8-10.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)72.676.2148.8-3.640%
vs Similar (14)76.681.9158.5-5.229%
vs Weaker (5)75.876.8152.6-1.040%
This opponent (Flamengo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: -4.7-4.7Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: +0.0+0.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: -4.7-4.7Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: +0.0+0.0
FlamengoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FlamengoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H13/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H15/02
NBB
Pato
#14
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H28/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A05/03
NBB
Paisas
#7
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A09/03
Champions League Americas
Paisas
#7
W
66-33
66
33
+33
H14/03
Champions League Americas
Minas
#1
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A19/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H27/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A29/03
NBB
84.0Avg total
43.8Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.839.483.2+4.463%-
Last 30 at home (18)44.437.081.4+7.472%-
Last 30 away (12)42.943.085.9-0.150%-
Last 10 (10)43.840.284.0+3.660%-
Last 5 (5)45.042.287.2+2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)39.742.382.0-2.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)44.339.083.3+5.365%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
76.7Avg total
35.4Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.739.576.2-2.840%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.939.276.1-2.340%-
Last 30 away (15)36.439.876.2-3.440%-
Last 10 (10)35.441.376.7-5.930%-
Last 5 (5)35.243.078.2-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)34.438.873.2-4.430%-
vs Similar (14)38.240.478.6-2.243%-
vs Weaker (5)36.639.075.6-2.440%-
This opponent (Flamengo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Flamengotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Flamengo: 85.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.618.7
55.7%
50.9%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.111.2
37.2%
33.0%33.6
🏀 Free throws19.914.1
70.9%
72.7%14.1
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 69.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.316.2
48.6%
50.9%32.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.07.8
31.2%
33.0%23.4
🏀 Free throws20.714.0
67.6%
72.7%14.0
They take 58.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Flamengo
WWLWWLWWWW
Sao Paulo
LLLLLWLLLL
#3
League position
#13
+9.7
Net rating
-14.4
111.5
Offensive rating
94.7
101.8
Defensive rating
109.1
55.7%
Effective FG%
47.9%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
20.1%
Turnover %
20.4%
33.6%
Off. rebound %
23.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.36
37.2%
3-point %
31.2%
63.9%
Assist %
66.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence111.5 · 94.7Defence101.8 · 109.1Shooting55.7% · 47.9%3-point %37.2% · 31.2%Ball care20.1% · 20.4%Off. rebounds33.6% · 23.8%Free throws0.31 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)80% · 10%
■ Flamengo   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Flamengo wins
4
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
07/11/24Sao Paulo v Flamengo77-75
29/03/24Flamengo v Sao Paulo88-78
07/12/23Sao Paulo v Flamengo70-83
17/05/23Sao Paulo v Flamengo72-69
15/05/23Sao Paulo v Flamengo96-79
12/05/23Flamengo v Sao Paulo72-80
01/04/23Flamengo v Sao Paulo79-70
26/01/23Sao Paulo v Flamengo70-74
20/12/22Sao Paulo v Flamengo66-91
02/04/22Flamengo v Sao Paulo88-78
Flamengolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/03/25ABotafogo92-85
27/03/25HVasco84-78
19/03/25AMinas70-94
14/03/25HPaisas102-65
09/03/25APaisas89-72
05/03/25ACaxias do Sul82-85
03/03/25AUniao Corinthians82-77
28/02/25HPato91-81
15/02/25HUnifacisa85-71
13/02/25HCearense84-79
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
08/03/25AVasco78-88
04/03/25HCearense75-79
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
04/02/25HCorinthians Paulista66-90
25/01/25AMinas66-82
23/01/25HSao Jose80-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Flamengo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW76%
HomeWWWWW80%
AwayWWLLW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %76%80%71%
Points / game84.083.784.4
Allowed / game75.174.076.3
Point differential+8.9+9.7+8.1
Avg total159.1157.7160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%53%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL37%
HomeLLWLL47%
AwayLLLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %37%47%27%
Points / game75.576.075.1
Allowed / game79.177.380.9
Point differential-3.6-1.3-5.9
Avg total154.6153.3156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%27%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)50% (6)43% (7)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3026487%82.771.5+11.1
2 Flamengo2922776%84.075.1+8.9
3 Franca3021970%84.476.2+8.2
4 Brasilia30191163%81.879.9+2.0
5 Vasco30171357%77.275.6+1.6
6 Bauru30171357%78.278.6-0.4
7 Uniao Corinthians29161355%78.579.1-0.6
8 Pinheiros30161453%76.675.5+1.1
9 Sao Jose31161552%78.378.0+0.4
10 Unifacisa31151648%75.275.3-0.1
11 Corinthians Paulista30141647%80.479.2+1.2
12 Paulistano31141745%78.576.7+1.9
13 Pato31121939%81.983.6-1.7
14 Sao Paulo30111937%75.579.1-3.6
15 Caxias do Sul30102033%73.780.7-7.1
16 Mogi31102132%73.880.8-7.0
17 Botafogo3082227%73.181.5-8.3
18 Cearense3182326%71.678.4-6.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Flamengo17283030105
Sao Paulo1823172886
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