PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Florida State vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 58-61
32-32 26-29
Position#167
Record11-12
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game79.6
vs
Position#19
Record20-4
FormLWWWW
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game69.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Florida State v Virginia
10 Feb 2026
FLOR58
VIRG61
10 Feb 2024
FLOR76
VIRG80
14 Jan 2023
FLOR58
VIRG67
15 Feb 2021
FLOR81
VIRG60
15 Jan 2020
FLOR54
VIRG50
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
69-113
69
113
-44
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
86-94
86
94
-8
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H17/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
65-63
65
63
+2
A21/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
80-83
80
83
-3
A24/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H29/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
82-79
82
79
+3
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-40
32-39
42-42
45-49
31-56
38-57
40-43
46-51
34-31
34-38
38-37
27-26
34-46
46-37
36-23
27-38
41-33
47-47
41-32
41-47
156.6Avg total
75.4Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)80.879.6160.4+1.348%
Season at home (15)84.578.3162.9+6.260%
Season away (8)73.981.9155.8-8.025%
Last 10 (10)75.481.2156.6-5.840%
Last 5 (5)75.673.2148.8+2.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)73.587.3160.8-13.823%
vs Similar (11)79.478.3157.6+1.145%
vs Weaker (6)88.363.3151.7+25.083%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
W
76-61
76
61
+15
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
79-70
79
70
+9
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
80-85
80
85
-5
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-97 OT
100
97
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
67-47
67
47
+20
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
72-59
72
59
+13
H07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
40-20
36-41
43-33
41-27
41-34
29-21
33-28
46-42
40-37
32-31
43-34
37-51
35-44
38-29
27-32
46-34
33-20
34-27
38-35
34-24
144.1Avg total
77.3Scored
66.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)81.669.5151.0+12.183%
Season at home (16)83.264.7147.9+18.588%
Season away (8)78.479.0157.4-0.675%
Last 10 (10)77.366.8144.1+10.590%
Last 5 (5)78.470.8149.2+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)69.075.7144.7-6.733%
vs Similar (8)73.170.0143.1+3.162%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)82.369.2151.4+13.184%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -1.2-1.21st half: +5.6+5.62nd half2nd half: -4.6-4.62nd half: +4.6+4.6
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -1.2-1.21st half: +5.6+5.62nd half2nd half: -4.6-4.62nd half: +4.6+4.6
Florida StateVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
31-56
31
56
-25
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H17/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A21/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A24/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
36-23
36
23
+13
H29/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A07/02
NCAA
75.4Avg total
37.1Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.237.174.3+0.153%-
Last 30 at home (19)38.835.674.4+3.263%-
Last 30 away (11)34.539.774.3-5.236%-
Last 10 (10)37.138.375.4-1.250%-
Last 5 (5)38.034.272.2+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)34.843.678.4-8.831%-
vs Similar (11)37.733.671.4+4.173%-
vs Weaker (6)41.729.371.0+12.367%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
33-20
33
20
+13
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H07/02
NCAA
69.0Avg total
37.3Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.931.269.1+6.773%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.529.970.4+10.689%-
Last 30 away (12)34.133.267.2+0.950%-
Last 10 (10)37.331.769.0+5.680%-
Last 5 (5)35.233.068.2+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.735.372.0+1.367%-
vs Similar (8)35.030.265.2+4.862%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)39.430.970.3+8.479%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Florida State wins
5
Virginia wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26ANotre Dame82-79
31/01/26HStanford88-80
29/01/26HCalifornia63-61
24/01/26ASMU Mustangs80-83
21/01/26AMiami (FL)65-63
17/01/26HWake Forest68-69
14/01/26ASyracuse86-94
10/01/26HNC State69-113
03/01/26HDuke87-91
31/12/25ANorth Carolina66-79
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26HSyracuse72-59
04/02/26HPittsburgh67-47
31/01/26ABoston College73-66
28/01/26ANotre Dame100-97 OT
24/01/26HNorth Carolina80-85
17/01/26ASMU Mustangs72-68
14/01/26ALouisville79-70
10/01/26HStanford70-55
08/01/26HCalifornia84-60
03/01/26ANC State76-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW48%
HomeLLLWW60%
AwayLLWLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games23158
Win %48%60%25%
Points / game80.884.573.9
Allowed / game79.678.381.9
Point differential+1.3+6.2-8.0
Avg total160.4162.9155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%47%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)33% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW83%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayWWWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games24168
Win %83%88%75%
Points / game81.683.278.4
Allowed / game69.564.779.0
Point differential+12.1+18.5-0.6
Avg total151.0147.9157.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+58%75%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %8%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2321291%83.463.9+19.5
2 Virginia2420483%81.669.5+12.1
3 Clemson2420483%76.064.1+11.9
4 North Carolina2319483%82.670.5+12.1
5 Miami (FL)2318578%84.270.0+14.2
6 Louisville2418675%87.170.9+16.2
7 NC State2518772%85.374.3+11.0
8 California2417771%77.871.5+6.3
9 SMU Mustangs2316770%86.477.3+9.1
10 Virginia Tech2416867%79.774.4+5.3
11 Stanford2415962%76.273.1+3.1
12 Syracuse24131154%75.170.8+4.4
13 Wake Forest23111248%80.078.0+2.0
14 Florida State23111248%80.879.6+1.3
15 Notre Dame24111346%73.872.8+1.0
16 Georgia Tech24111346%74.875.5-0.7
17 Boston College2391439%67.368.6-1.3
18 Pittsburgh2491538%70.871.5-0.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Florida State322658
Virginia322961
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.