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Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 21 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 02:00
Scheduled
Position#143
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game83.0
vs
Position#1
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game114.3
Allowed / game71.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Fresno State v Boise State
20 Jan 2027
FRES v BOIS
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
FRES53
BOIS69
01 Mar 2025
FRES61
BOIS66
23 Jan 2024
FRES68
BOIS72
28 Jan 2022
FRES63
BOIS68
25 Jan 2020
FRES53
BOIS87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fresno State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Boise State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
L
78-80
78
80
-2
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
53-69
53
69
-16
H01/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
82-68
82
68
+14
H04/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
60-85
60
85
-25
A08/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#354
W
88-79
88
79
+9
H03/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#169
L
65-81
65
81
-16
A08/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#299
W
95-92 OT
95
92
+3
H11/11
NCAA
UC Riverside
#109
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-32
34-48
39-32
31-42
23-28
30-41
45-34
37-34
29-44
31-41
32-27
31-40
41-38
47-41
36-32
29-49
39-38
39-40
50-28
39-52
151.8Avg total
74.3Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.283.0167.2+1.275%
Season at home (3)90.783.7174.3+7.0100%
Season away (1)65.081.0146.0-16.00%
Last 10 (10)74.377.5151.8-3.240%
Last 5 (5)80.079.8159.8+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)68.876.1144.9-7.322%
vs Similar (5)81.485.2166.6-3.840%
vs Weaker (6)78.562.8141.3+15.783%
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boise StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
56-75
56
75
-19
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
69-53
69
53
+16
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
86-77
86
77
+9
H04/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
78-67
78
67
+11
A07/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
74-84
74
84
-10
H12/03
NCAA
West Coast Baptist
#536
W
132-53
132
53
+79
H05/11
NCAA
Butler
#200
W
100-81
100
81
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
111-79
111
79
+32
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
23-30
33-45
36-31
48-38
32-30
40-32
28-23
41-30
34-27
52-50
36-28
42-39
39-41
35-43
69-26
63-27
51-31
49-50
52-42
59-37
156.2Avg total
86.2Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)114.371.0185.3+43.3100%
Season at home (3)114.371.0185.3+43.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.270.0156.2+16.280%
Last 5 (5)99.072.8171.8+26.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.075.6144.6-6.660%
vs Similar (15)79.278.1157.3+1.153%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)92.467.7160.1+24.780%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: -8.0-8.02nd half: +7.1+7.1
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: -8.0-8.02nd half: +7.1+7.1
Fresno StateBoise State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H01/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A08/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#354
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H03/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#169
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A08/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#299
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H11/11
NCAA
UC Riverside
#109
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H14/11
NCAA
71.1Avg total
37.8Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.834.268.9+0.653%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.132.468.4+3.762%-
Last 30 away (14)33.336.269.5-2.943%-
Last 10 (10)37.833.371.1+4.580%-
Last 5 (5)39.632.672.2+7.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)31.132.463.5-1.339%-
vs Similar (5)40.841.081.8-0.260%-
vs Weaker (6)39.733.272.8+6.583%-
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boise StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H04/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
36-28
36
28
+8
A07/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H12/03
NCAA
West Coast Baptist
#536
W
69-26
69
26
+43
H05/11
NCAA
Butler
#200
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H08/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H12/11
NCAA
70.9Avg total
40.0Scored
30.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.933.069.9+3.967%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.432.070.4+6.472%-
Last 30 away (12)34.634.469.0+0.258%-
Last 10 (10)40.030.970.9+9.180%-
Last 5 (5)49.433.683.0+15.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)29.433.863.2-4.460%-
vs Similar (15)35.132.767.8+2.360%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)43.432.976.3+10.580%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Fresno State wins
9
Boise State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUC Riverside89-80
11/11/26HGeorgia State95-92 OT
08/11/26AUC San Diego65-81
03/11/26HFresno Pacific88-79
12/03/26AColorado State63-67
08/03/26AGrand Canyon60-85
04/03/26HSan Jose State82-68
01/03/26HBoise State53-69
25/02/26AColorado State70-74
22/02/26HNew Mexico78-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HOakland111-79
08/11/26HButler100-81
05/11/26HWest Coast Baptist132-53
12/03/26HSan Jose State74-84
07/03/26AColorado State78-67
04/03/26HSan Diego State86-77
01/03/26AFresno State69-53
25/02/26HWyoming72-62
21/02/26HSan Jose State84-69
19/02/26AUtah State56-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fresno State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game84.290.765.0
Allowed / game83.083.781.0
Point differential+1.2+7.0-16.0
Avg total167.2174.3146.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %25%33%0%
Boise State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game114.3114.3-
Allowed / game71.071.0-
Point differential+43.3+43.3-
Avg total185.3185.3-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State330100%114.371.0+43.3
2 Utah State440100%105.570.5+35.0
3 Grand Canyon440100%97.270.8+26.5
4 San Diego State330100%89.073.0+16.0
5 UNLV330100%84.374.7+9.7
6 New Mexico43175%93.271.0+22.2
7 Wyoming43175%81.859.8+22.0
8 Air Force43175%93.583.8+9.8
9 Colorado State43175%76.871.2+5.5
10 Fresno State43175%84.283.0+1.2
11 Nevada42250%79.073.2+5.8
12 San Jose State31233%83.081.7+1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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