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Geelong vs Mt Gambier Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 May 2024
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 81-93
10-18 28-19 23-36 20-20
Position#11
Record2-3
FormWLLWL
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game82.4
vs
Position#1
Record4-2
FormWWLWL
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game85.7
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2024
Meetings · Geelong v Mt Gambier
29 Mar 2025
GEEL58
MT G108
04 May 2024
GEEL81
MT G93
06 May 2023
GEEL106
MT G105
31 Jul 2022
GEEL86
MT G92
09 Jul 2021
GEEL90
MT G96
17 Jun 2017
GEEL72
MT G95
22 Apr 2016
GEEL74
MT G97
20 Jun 2015
GEEL73
MT G94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Geelong winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mt Gambier winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Frankston
#3
W
98-97 OT
98
97
+1
A01/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A07/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#11
L
104-107
104
107
-3
H08/07
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#16
W
116-85
116
85
+31
H15/07
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
93-72
93
72
+21
A16/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A07/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#15
L
81-88
81
88
-7
H12/04
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#10
L
97-103
97
103
-6
A14/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H20/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#6
L
74-78
74
78
-4
A27/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-24
24-18
22-23
17-22
13-12
23-20
16-19
16-24
28-32
16-26
30-25
30-24
28-27
40-17
25-19
23-22
26-25
18-15
23-18
26-14
18-18
18-25
23-19
22-17
24-23
11-28
24-21
22-16
25-28
25-16
19-33
28-26
12-18
21-22
13-15
21-9
11-16
19-21
23-20
21-21
172.7Avg total
87.9Scored
84.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)80.082.4162.4-2.440%
Season at home (2)74.076.0150.0-2.050%
Season away (3)84.086.7170.7-2.733%
Last 10 (10)87.984.8172.7+3.150%
Last 5 (5)80.082.4162.4-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)80.583.8164.2-3.262%
vs Similar (10)90.290.9181.1-0.740%
vs Weaker (12)88.387.1175.4+1.233%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Waverley
#9
W
83-78
83
78
+5
A15/07
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
L
88-95
88
95
-7
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
97-96 OT
97
96
+1
A22/07
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
63-68
63
68
-5
H04/08
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
97-79
97
79
+18
A06/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
W
67-63
67
63
+4
A07/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
W
93-87
93
87
+6
H13/04
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
94-105
94
105
-11
H14/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H19/04
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#10
L
83-96
83
96
-13
H26/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-25
22-13
20-23
21-17
27-24
21-24
22-27
18-20
17-30
27-20
14-18
26-16
22-20
12-13
13-13
16-22
28-25
27-11
20-22
22-21
18-17
16-17
16-9
17-20
19-38
26-14
23-17
25-18
28-30
26-23
20-26
20-26
19-28
26-16
27-25
19-15
24-27
26-26
10-25
23-18
170.7Avg total
85.6Scored
85.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.585.7173.2+1.867%
Season at home (4)90.293.0183.2-2.850%
Season away (2)82.071.0153.0+11.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.685.1170.7+0.560%
Last 5 (5)85.687.0172.6-1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)63.072.5135.5-9.50%
vs Similar (10)99.092.5191.5+6.570%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)89.783.4173.2+6.372%
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -4.2-4.2Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +5.2+5.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: +1.4+1.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -4.2-4.2Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +5.2+5.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: +1.4+1.4
GeelongMt Gambier
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Frankston
#3
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A01/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A07/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#11
L
44-58
44
58
-14
H08/07
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#16
W
68-44
68
44
+24
H15/07
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A16/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A07/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#15
L
35-51
35
51
-16
H12/04
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A14/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H20/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#6
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A27/04
NBL1 South
85.5Avg total
42.4Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.144.688.7-0.553%-
Last 30 at home (13)46.246.993.1-0.854%-
Last 30 away (17)42.542.885.3-0.453%-
Last 10 (10)42.443.185.5-0.750%-
Last 5 (5)36.843.079.8-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)38.544.182.6-5.638%-
vs Similar (10)45.846.392.1-0.550%-
vs Weaker (12)46.343.589.8+2.867%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Waverley
#9
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A15/07
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A22/07
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H04/08
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
55-36
55
36
+19
A06/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A07/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
45-52
45
52
-7
H13/04
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H14/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H19/04
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#10
L
50-53
50
53
-3
H26/04
NBL1 South
89.2Avg total
45.1Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.744.892.5+2.960%-
Last 30 at home (16)47.142.689.7+4.675%-
Last 30 away (14)48.447.395.6+1.143%-
Last 10 (10)45.144.189.2+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)45.647.292.8-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.035.567.5-3.550%-
vs Similar (10)50.450.0100.4+0.440%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)47.942.990.8+5.172%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Geelong wins
6
Mt Gambier wins
DateGameScore
23/06/23Mt Gambier v Geelong100-90
06/05/23Geelong v Mt Gambier106-105
31/07/22Geelong v Mt Gambier86-92
20/05/22Mt Gambier v Geelong82-83
09/07/21Geelong v Mt Gambier90-96
23/06/17Mt Gambier v Geelong104-94
17/06/17Geelong v Mt Gambier72-95
15/07/16Mt Gambier v Geelong87-98
22/04/16Geelong v Mt Gambier74-97
07/08/15Mt Gambier v Geelong68-69
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/04/24ADandenong74-78
20/04/24HFrankston67-64
14/04/24AKeilor Thunder97-103
12/04/24HBendigo Braves81-88
07/04/24ABallarat81-79
16/07/23AWaverley93-72
15/07/23HKeilor Thunder116-85
08/07/23HBallarat104-107
07/07/23ARingwood68-75
01/07/23AFrankston98-97 OT
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/04/24HKeilor Thunder83-96
19/04/24HNW Tasmania91-84
14/04/24HBallarat94-105
13/04/24HFrankston93-87
07/04/24AWaverley67-63
06/04/24ASandringham Sabres97-79
04/08/23HKnox63-68
22/07/23AFrankston97-96 OT
16/07/23AEltham88-95
15/07/23AWaverley83-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Geelong
NBL1 South 2024
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL40%
HomeLW50%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game80.074.084.0
Allowed / game82.476.086.7
Point differential-2.4-2.0-2.7
Avg total162.4150.0170.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL67%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game87.590.282.0
Allowed / game85.793.071.0
Point differential+1.8-2.8+11.0
Avg total173.2183.2153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nunawading75271%85.181.1+4.0
2 Knox64267%96.580.8+15.7
3 Eltham64267%93.579.2+14.3
4 Ballarat64267%96.086.5+9.5
5 Mt Gambier64267%87.585.7+1.8
6 Hobart Chargers85362%81.480.5+0.9
7 Keilor Thunder85362%96.199.1-3.0
8 Frankston74357%91.084.1+6.9
9 Dandenong95456%83.180.1+3.0
10 Ringwood95456%87.388.8-1.4
11 Waverley84450%88.185.6+2.5
12 Sandringham Sabres73443%93.984.3+9.6
13 NW Tasmania73443%85.090.4-5.4
14 Melbourne Tigers73443%79.685.3-5.7
15 Bendigo Braves73443%80.187.3-7.1
16 Geelong52340%80.082.4-2.4
17 Casey Cavaliers72529%81.684.4-2.9
18 Kilsyth61517%77.098.2-21.2
19 Diamond Valley6060%80.7100.8-20.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Geelong1028232081
Mt Gambier1819362093
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