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Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 25 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 126-116
40-28 31-30 29-31 26-27
Position#20
Record15-15
FormLLLWW
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game112.3
vs
Position#24
Record12-19
FormLWLLW
Points / game113.6
Allowed / game117.4
USANBA· Chase Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks
25 Feb 2027
GSW v DAL
upcoming
22 Dec 2026
GSW v DAL
upcoming
25 Dec 2025
GSW126
DAL116
23 Feb 2025
GSW126
DAL102
15 Dec 2024
GSW133
DAL143
12 Nov 2024
GSW120
DAL117
02 Apr 2024
GSW104
DAL100
30 Dec 2023
GSW122
DAL132
04 Feb 2023
GSW119
DAL113
26 May 2022
GSW120
DAL110
20 May 2022
GSW126
DAL117
18 May 2022
GSW112
DAL87
27 Feb 2022
GSW101
DAL107
25 Jan 2022
GSW130
DAL92
27 Apr 2021
GSW103
DAL133
14 Jan 2020
GSW97
DAL124
28 Dec 2019
GSW121
DAL141
23 Mar 2019
GSW91
DAL126
22 Dec 2018
GSW120
DAL116
08 Feb 2018
GSW121
DAL103
14 Dec 2017
GSW112
DAL97
30 Dec 2016
GSW108
DAL99
09 Nov 2016
GSW116
DAL95
25 Mar 2016
GSW128
DAL120
27 Jan 2016
GSW127
DAL107
06 Mar 2015
GSW104
DAL89
04 Feb 2015
GSW128
DAL114
11 Mar 2014
GSW108
DAL85
11 Dec 2013
GSW95
DAL93
31 Jan 2013
GSW100
DAL97
12 Apr 2012
GSW103
DAL112
10 Mar 2012
GSW111
DAL87
02 Apr 2011
GSW99
DAL92
16 Mar 2011
GSW106
DAL112
27 Mar 2010
GSW90
DAL111
08 Feb 2010
GSW117
DAL127
13 Mar 2009
GSW119
DAL110
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Golden State Warriors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
104-96
104
96
+8
96avg 105
H30/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
112-124
112
124
-12
104avg 105
H03/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
98-99
98
99
-1
89avg 105
A05/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
99-94
99
94
+5
91avg 105
A07/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
123-91
123
91
+32
121avg 105
A08/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
120-127
120
127
-7
108avg 105
H13/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
131-136
131
136
-5
128avg 105
A15/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
98-99
98
99
-1
95avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
119-116
119
116
+3
114avg 105
H21/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
120-97
120
97
+23
120avg 105
H23/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-18
25-20
31-34
31-24
26-32
18-31
44-28
24-33
10-30
24-26
32-24
32-19
12-18
33-18
27-26
27-32
38-25
22-21
27-30
36-15
27-28
36-33
28-27
29-39
31-34
31-27
37-35
32-40
29-26
24-20
18-24
27-29
32-44
32-23
29-20
26-29
26-30
32-27
31-26
31-14
220.3Avg total
112.4Scored
107.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)114.2112.3226.4+1.950%
Season at home (13)117.7109.7227.4+8.069%
Season away (17)111.5114.2225.7-2.835%
Last 10 (10)112.4107.9220.3+4.550%
Last 5 (5)117.6115.0232.6+2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)112.7120.3233.0-7.643%
vs Similar (16)112.4110.1222.6+2.350%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)119.6109.1228.7+10.457%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
131-121
131
121
+10
130avg 103
A02/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
118-108
118
108
+10
119avg 103
H04/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
111-132
111
132
-21
102avg 103
A06/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
122-109
122
109
+13
114avg 103
H07/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
119-111
119
111
+8
113avg 103
H13/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
133-140 OT
133
140
-7
122avg 103
A16/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
116-114 OT
116
114
+2
109avg 103
H19/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
114-121
114
121
-7
112avg 103
A21/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
113-119
113
119
-6
103avg 103
A23/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
131-130
131
130
+1
128avg 103
H24/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-41
42-27
33-36
29-17
28-33
36-21
29-26
25-28
27-27
21-36
26-41
37-28
29-26
28-31
37-20
28-32
32-33
33-28
25-31
29-19
43-37
32-34
24-21
30-37
35-30
31-27
25-22
19-31
33-38
29-30
35-23
17-30
34-36
29-21
24-22
26-40
41-27
25-29
37-47
28-27
241.3Avg total
120.8Scored
120.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)113.6117.4231.0-3.739%
Season at home (18)114.6115.8230.4-1.350%
Season away (13)112.3119.5231.8-7.223%
Last 10 (10)120.8120.5241.3+0.360%
Last 5 (5)121.4124.8246.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)116.3119.2235.4-2.942%
vs Similar (8)110.5114.5225.0-4.025%
vs Weaker (3)112.3111.0223.3+1.367%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.7-3.7Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -2.1-2.1
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.7-3.7Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -2.1-2.1
Golden State WarriorsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H30/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
44-63
44
63
-19
H03/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
34-56
34
56
-22
A05/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A07/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
60-46
60
46
+14
A08/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H13/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
62-61
62
61
+1
A15/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A19/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H21/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H23/12
NBA
105.6Avg total
52.5Scored
53.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.255.2110.4-0.060%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.255.6113.8+2.669%-
Last 30 away (17)52.854.9107.7-2.153%-
Last 10 (10)52.553.1105.6-0.670%-
Last 5 (5)60.058.4118.4+1.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.458.6109.0-8.129%-
vs Similar (16)55.254.6109.8+0.762%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)59.753.3113.0+6.486%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
69-68
69
68
+1
A02/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
64-54
64
54
+10
H04/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
48-63
48
63
-15
A06/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
65-61
65
61
+4
H13/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
75-71
75
71
+4
A16/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
66-57
66
57
+9
H19/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
62-68
62
68
-6
A21/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
63-57
63
57
+6
A23/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
66-56
66
56
+10
H24/12
NBA
124.7Avg total
63.5Scored
61.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.258.7114.9-2.540%-
Last 30 at home (17)55.656.5112.1-0.935%-
Last 30 away (13)56.961.5118.5-4.646%-
Last 10 (10)63.561.2124.7+2.370%-
Last 5 (5)66.461.8128.2+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)56.259.0115.2-2.832%-
vs Similar (8)55.458.5113.9-3.150%-
vs Weaker (3)58.057.3115.3+0.767%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 112.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.025.0
53.2%
54.8%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.415.6
35.9%
35.8%46.8
🏀 Free throws19.915.6
78.4%
78.1%15.6
They take 90.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 120.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers72.8 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.436.4
57.4%
54.8%72.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.110.3
36.7%
35.8%30.9
🏀 Free throws22.317.1
76.7%
78.1%17.1
They take 91.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Golden State Warriors
WWLLLWWLLW
Dallas Mavericks
WLLWLWWLWW
#20
League position
#24
+4.4
Net rating
+0.3
111.1
Offensive rating
116.1
106.7
Defensive rating
115.8
53.5%
Effective FG%
56.7%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
14.7%
Turnover %
12.8%
27.8%
Off. rebound %
24.6%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.9%
3-point %
36.7%
70.7%
Assist %
60.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.1 · 116.1Defence106.7 · 115.8Shooting53.5% · 56.7%3-point %35.9% · 36.7%Ball care14.7% · 12.8%Off. rebounds27.8% · 24.6%Free throws0.22 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Golden State Warriors   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/25HOrlando Magic120-97
21/12/25HPhoenix Suns119-116
19/12/25APhoenix Suns98-99
15/12/25APortland Trail Blazers131-136
13/12/25HMinnesota Timberwolves120-127
08/12/25AChicago Bulls123-91
07/12/25ACleveland Cavaliers99-94
05/12/25APhiladelphia 76ers98-99
03/12/25HOklahoma City Thunder112-124
30/11/25HNew Orleans Pelicans104-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/25HDenver Nuggets131-130
23/12/25ANew Orleans Pelicans113-119
21/12/25APhiladelphia 76ers114-121
19/12/25HDetroit Pistons116-114 OT
16/12/25AUtah Jazz133-140 OT
13/12/25HBrooklyn Nets119-111
07/12/25HHouston Rockets122-109
06/12/25AOklahoma City Thunder111-132
04/12/25HMiami Heat118-108
02/12/25ADenver Nuggets131-121

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Golden State Warriors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW50%
HomeWLLWW69%
AwayLWWLL35%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301317
Win %50%69%35%
Points / game114.2117.7111.5
Allowed / game112.3109.7114.2
Point differential+1.9+8.0-2.8
Avg total226.4227.4225.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%46%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)33% (3)38% (8)
Overtime %3%8%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW39%
HomeWWWWW50%
AwayWLLLL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311813
Win %39%50%23%
Points / game113.6114.6112.3
Allowed / game117.4115.8119.5
Point differential-3.7-1.3-7.2
Avg total231.0230.4231.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%17%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)62% (8)50% (2)
Overtime %13%17%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2925486%121.1107.9+13.3
2 Detroit Pistons3024680%119.2112.3+6.9
3 San Antonio Spurs2821775%120.2113.1+7.1
4 Denver Nuggets2921872%125.2116.5+8.7
5 Los Angeles Lakers2719870%117.6116.9+0.8
6 New York Knicks2819968%120.0113.5+6.5
7 Minnesota Timberwolves30201067%118.5113.5+5.0
8 Houston Rockets27171063%120.5112.7+7.8
9 Boston Celtics29181162%116.0110.0+6.0
10 Toronto Raptors30181260%113.8111.5+2.4
11 Phoenix Suns28161257%115.8113.0+2.8
12 Orlando Magic28161257%117.1114.5+2.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers28161257%116.6115.4+1.2
14 Cleveland Cavaliers32171553%120.2117.8+2.4
15 Miami Heat29151452%119.6117.7+2.0
16 Golden State Warriors30151550%114.2112.3+1.9
17 Atlanta Hawks31151648%118.8119.6-0.8
18 Chicago Bulls29141548%119.7123.0-3.3
19 Memphis Grizzlies30141647%115.0116.2-1.2
20 Milwaukee Bucks30121840%113.0116.2-3.1
21 Portland Trail Blazers30121840%117.1120.5-3.4
22 Dallas Mavericks31121939%113.6117.4-3.7
23 Utah Jazz29101934%119.9127.4-7.6
24 Charlotte Hornets30102033%115.4118.8-3.4
25 Brooklyn Nets2891932%109.3113.9-4.6
26 Los Angeles Clippers2982128%111.2115.7-4.5
27 New Orleans Pelicans3182326%115.5122.8-7.3
28 Sacramento Kings3072323%112.0122.5-10.5
29 Indiana Pacers3062420%109.2117.7-8.5
30 Washington Wizards2852318%112.6126.1-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Golden State Warriors40312926126
Dallas Mavericks28303127116
← all games of the day
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