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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 24 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 131-130
41-27 25-29 37-47 28-27
Position#24
Record11-19
FormWLWLL
Points / game113.0
Allowed / game116.9
vs
Position#6
Record21-7
FormWWWLW
Points / game125.1
Allowed / game116.0
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets
31 Mar 2027
DAL v DEN
upcoming
14 Jan 2026
DAL109
DEN118
23 Dec 2025
DAL131
DEN130
14 Jan 2025
DAL99
DEN118
12 Jan 2025
DAL101
DEN112
17 Mar 2024
DAL107
DEN105
20 Nov 2022
DAL97
DEN98
18 Nov 2022
DAL127
DEN99
03 Jan 2022
DAL103
DEN89
15 Nov 2021
DAL111
DEN101
25 Jan 2021
DAL113
DEN117
11 Mar 2020
DAL113
DEN97
08 Jan 2020
DAL106
DEN107
22 Feb 2019
DAL104
DEN114
06 Mar 2018
DAL118
DEN107
04 Dec 2017
DAL122
DEN105
11 Apr 2017
DAL91
DEN109
12 Dec 2016
DAL112
DEN92
26 Feb 2016
DAL122
DEN116
28 Nov 2015
DAL92
DEN81
16 Jan 2015
DAL97
DEN89
21 Mar 2014
DAL122
DEN106
25 Nov 2013
DAL96
DEN110
12 Apr 2013
DAL108
DEN105
28 Dec 2012
DAL85
DEN106
15 Feb 2012
DAL102
DEN84
26 Dec 2011
DAL93
DEN115
06 Apr 2011
DAL96
DEN104
06 Nov 2010
DAL92
DEN103
29 Mar 2010
DAL109
DEN93
11 May 2009
DAL119
DEN117
09 May 2009
DAL105
DEN106
27 Mar 2009
DAL101
DEN103
15 Dec 2008
DAL88
DEN98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
114-110
114
110
+4
99avg 103
A30/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
131-121
131
121
+10
130avg 103
A02/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
118-108
118
108
+10
119avg 103
H04/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
111-132
111
132
-21
102avg 103
A06/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
122-109
122
109
+13
114avg 103
H07/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
119-111
119
111
+8
113avg 103
H13/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
133-140 OT
133
140
-7
122avg 103
A16/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
116-114 OT
116
114
+2
109avg 103
H19/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
114-121
114
121
-7
112avg 103
A21/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
113-119
113
119
-6
103avg 103
A23/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-28
24-28
34-27
31-27
27-41
42-27
33-36
29-17
28-33
36-21
29-26
25-28
27-27
21-36
26-41
37-28
29-26
28-31
37-20
28-32
32-33
33-28
25-31
29-19
43-37
32-34
24-21
30-37
35-30
31-27
25-22
19-31
33-38
29-30
35-23
17-30
34-36
29-21
24-22
26-40
237.6Avg total
119.1Scored
118.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)113.0116.9230.0-3.937%
Season at home (17)113.6115.0228.6-1.447%
Season away (13)112.3119.5231.8-7.223%
Last 10 (10)119.1118.5237.6+0.660%
Last 5 (5)119.0121.0240.0-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)114.2118.9233.1-4.737%
vs Similar (8)110.5114.5225.0-4.025%
vs Weaker (3)112.3111.0223.3+1.367%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
130-112
130
112
+18
139avg 115
A30/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
121-131
121
131
-10
119avg 115
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
135-120
135
120
+15
129avg 115
A04/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
134-133
134
133
+1
129avg 115
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
115-106
115
106
+9
110avg 115
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
136-105
136
105
+31
139avg 115
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
128-125 OT
128
125
+3
119avg 115
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
126-115
126
115
+11
124avg 115
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
101-115
101
115
-14
84avg 115
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
135-112
135
112
+23
139avg 115
H23/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-25
33-35
33-25
34-27
41-27
27-42
36-33
17-29
33-28
39-20
30-31
33-41
23-41
31-32
40-30
40-30
34-34
23-24
30-23
28-25
41-26
36-28
32-27
27-24
24-30
34-21
31-35
28-31
25-32
43-22
31-31
27-30
29-26
16-27
21-29
35-33
40-15
29-31
34-38
32-28
243.5Avg total
126.1Scored
117.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)125.1116.0241.1+9.175%
Season at home (14)125.0116.7241.7+8.364%
Season away (14)125.1115.3240.4+9.986%
Last 10 (10)126.1117.4243.5+8.780%
Last 5 (5)125.2114.4239.6+10.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)106.0116.0222.0-10.050%
vs Similar (12)124.2117.0241.2+7.283%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)125.7115.2240.9+10.469%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A30/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
69-68
69
68
+1
A02/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
64-54
64
54
+10
H04/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
48-63
48
63
-15
A06/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
65-61
65
61
+4
H13/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
75-71
75
71
+4
A16/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
66-57
66
57
+9
H19/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
62-68
62
68
-6
A21/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
63-57
63
57
+6
A23/12
NBA
123.0Avg total
61.8Scored
61.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.758.8114.5-3.237%-
Last 30 at home (17)54.756.8111.5-2.129%-
Last 30 away (13)56.961.5118.5-4.646%-
Last 10 (10)61.861.2123.0+0.660%-
Last 5 (5)66.262.8129.0+3.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)55.459.2114.6-3.826%-
vs Similar (8)55.458.5113.9-3.150%-
vs Weaker (3)58.057.3115.3+0.767%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A30/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
72-48
72
48
+24
A04/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
54-73
54
73
-19
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-54
77
54
+23
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
58-51
58
51
+7
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
68-54
68
54
+14
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
45-53
45
53
-8
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
69-46
69
46
+23
H23/12
NBA
119.7Avg total
63.1Scored
56.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.957.1119.0+4.767%-
Last 30 at home (15)63.755.8119.5+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)60.158.5118.5+1.653%-
Last 10 (10)63.156.6119.7+6.560%-
Last 5 (5)63.451.6115.0+11.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)52.060.5112.5-8.50%-
vs Similar (12)59.259.2118.4+0.142%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)65.155.2120.2+9.994%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 119.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers70.2 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.935.1
56.7%
54.8%70.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.3
35.2%
35.8%30.9
🏀 Free throws23.618.0
76.3%
78.1%18.0
They take 91.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 126.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.530.2
57.5%
54.8%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.915.5
44.4%
35.8%46.5
🏀 Free throws24.219.2
79.3%
78.1%19.2
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
LLWLWWLWWW
Denver Nuggets
WLWWWWWWLW
#24
League position
#6
+0.6
Net rating
+8.6
113.6
Offensive rating
124.8
113.1
Defensive rating
116.2
55.4%
Effective FG%
61.2%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.5%
12.5%
Turnover %
11.0%
22.6%
Off. rebound %
20.0%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.2%
3-point %
44.4%
59.5%
Assist %
65.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence113.6 · 124.8Defence113.1 · 116.2Shooting55.4% · 61.2%3-point %35.2% · 44.4%Ball care12.5% · 11.0%Off. rebounds22.6% · 20.0%Free throws0.26 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 80%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/25ANew Orleans Pelicans113-119
21/12/25APhiladelphia 76ers114-121
19/12/25HDetroit Pistons116-114 OT
16/12/25AUtah Jazz133-140 OT
13/12/25HBrooklyn Nets119-111
07/12/25HHouston Rockets122-109
06/12/25AOklahoma City Thunder111-132
04/12/25HMiami Heat118-108
02/12/25ADenver Nuggets131-121
30/11/25ALos Angeles Clippers114-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/25HUtah Jazz135-112
20/12/25HHouston Rockets101-115
19/12/25HOrlando Magic126-115
16/12/25HHouston Rockets128-125 OT
12/12/25ASacramento Kings136-105
07/12/25ACharlotte Hornets115-106
06/12/25AAtlanta Hawks134-133
04/12/25AIndiana Pacers135-120
02/12/25HDallas Mavericks121-131
30/11/25APhoenix Suns130-112

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL37%
HomeLWWWW47%
AwayWLLLL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %37%47%23%
Points / game113.0113.6112.3
Allowed / game116.9115.0119.5
Point differential-3.9-1.4-7.2
Avg total230.0228.6231.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%18%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)57% (7)50% (2)
Overtime %13%18%8%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW75%
HomeLWWLW64%
AwayWWWWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %75%64%86%
Points / game125.1125.0125.1
Allowed / game116.0116.7115.3
Point differential+9.1+8.3+9.9
Avg total241.1241.7240.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%50%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)25% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %7%7%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2725293%122.3106.7+15.6
2 Detroit Pistons2923679%118.6111.8+6.8
3 Denver Nuggets2821775%125.1116.0+9.1
4 San Antonio Spurs2619773%120.0113.7+6.3
5 Los Angeles Lakers2619773%118.0116.3+1.7
6 New York Knicks2618869%120.3113.0+7.3
7 Minnesota Timberwolves29191066%118.6113.8+4.8
8 Houston Rockets2617965%121.0112.2+8.8
9 Boston Celtics29181162%116.0110.0+6.0
10 Toronto Raptors30181260%113.8111.5+2.4
11 Philadelphia 76ers28161257%116.6115.4+1.2
12 Orlando Magic27151256%117.3114.8+2.6
13 Phoenix Suns27151256%115.2113.2+2.0
14 Cleveland Cavaliers31171455%120.0117.5+2.5
15 Miami Heat29151452%119.6117.7+2.0
16 Golden State Warriors30151550%114.2112.3+1.9
17 Atlanta Hawks31151648%118.8119.6-0.8
18 Chicago Bulls29141548%119.7123.0-3.3
19 Memphis Grizzlies29131645%114.3115.8-1.6
20 Portland Trail Blazers29121741%117.5120.9-3.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks30121840%113.0116.2-3.1
22 Dallas Mavericks30111937%113.0116.9-3.9
23 Utah Jazz28101836%119.6127.1-7.5
24 Charlotte Hornets30102033%115.4118.8-3.4
25 Brooklyn Nets2891932%109.3113.9-4.6
26 New Orleans Pelicans3182326%115.5122.8-7.3
27 Los Angeles Clippers2872125%110.6116.0-5.4
28 Sacramento Kings2972224%111.5122.0-10.5
29 Indiana Pacers3062420%109.2117.7-8.5
30 Washington Wizards2852318%112.6126.1-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Dallas Mavericks41253728131
Denver Nuggets27294727130
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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