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Illinois State vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 06 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 20:30
Final 70-54
38-23 32-31
Position#141
Record18-13
FormLWWLW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game72.4
vs
Position#334
Record9-22
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.4
Allowed / game70.9
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Illinois State v Missouri State
06 Mar 2025
ILLI70
MISS54
18 Jan 2025
ILLI74
MISS68
28 Feb 2024
ILLI75
MISS74
11 Jan 2023
ILLI76
MISS66
01 Dec 2021
ILLI79
MISS74
07 Feb 2021
ILLI62
MISS72
06 Feb 2021
ILLI67
MISS74
07 Jan 2020
ILLI63
MISS67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belmont
#79
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H30/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
86-78
86
78
+8
H01/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
W
81-79
81
79
+2
A06/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
65-68
65
68
-3
A08/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
76-85
76
85
-9
A15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
82-71
82
71
+11
H20/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
70-68
70
68
+2
A23/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
79-88
79
88
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
62-53
62
53
+9
H02/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-31
46-47
45-38
41-40
45-37
36-42
36-32
29-36
32-40
45-44
33-40
43-45
35-27
47-44
35-32
35-36
35-43
44-45
34-23
28-30
151.1Avg total
75.9Scored
75.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)76.172.4148.5+3.758%
Season at home (17)79.970.6150.5+9.376%
Season away (14)71.574.6146.1-3.136%
Last 10 (10)75.975.2151.1+0.760%
Last 5 (5)73.873.0146.8+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.271.6140.8-2.420%
vs Similar (16)79.277.9157.1+1.362%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)75.763.7139.3+12.078%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#254
L
67-72
67
72
-5
A30/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
W
77-56
77
56
+21
H01/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
61-66
61
66
-5
H06/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
68-85
68
85
-17
A08/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
71-54
71
54
+17
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A16/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A20/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
68-70
68
70
-2
H23/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
65-74
65
74
-9
H27/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
60-68 OT
60
68
-8
A02/03
NCAA
1H
2H
36-25
31-47
43-19
34-37
30-34
31-32
44-45
24-40
36-26
35-28
30-35
28-28
30-26
34-40
32-35
36-35
24-34
41-40
28-29
31-30
133.3Avg total
65.9Scored
67.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)68.470.9139.3-2.529%
Season at home (16)70.669.4140.0+1.244%
Season away (15)66.172.5138.6-6.513%
Last 10 (10)65.967.4133.3-1.520%
Last 5 (5)63.068.2131.2-5.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)64.869.7134.5-4.920%
vs Similar (13)71.874.7146.5-2.931%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.2+2.21st half: +2.5+2.52nd half2nd half: -1.5-1.52nd half: -3.2-3.2
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.2+2.21st half: +2.5+2.52nd half2nd half: -1.5-1.52nd half: -3.2-3.2
Illinois StateMissouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belmont
#79
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H30/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H01/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A06/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A08/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H20/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A23/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
34-23
34
23
+11
H02/03
NCAA
70.8Avg total
36.5Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.733.970.6+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.732.169.8+5.675%-
Last 30 away (14)35.636.171.6-0.543%-
Last 10 (10)36.534.370.8+2.270%-
Last 5 (5)34.433.067.4+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)31.834.466.2-2.620%-
vs Similar (16)39.136.275.4+2.969%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)35.129.664.7+5.667%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#254
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A30/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
W
43-19
43
19
+24
H01/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H06/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A08/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A16/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A20/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H23/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
24-34
24
34
-10
H27/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A02/03
NCAA
64.1Avg total
33.3Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.831.862.5-1.033%-
Last 30 at home (16)31.131.862.8-0.738%-
Last 30 away (14)30.431.862.2-1.429%-
Last 10 (10)33.330.864.1+2.540%-
Last 5 (5)28.831.860.6-3.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)30.932.363.2-1.527%-
vs Similar (13)30.331.962.2-1.638%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Illinois State wins
4
Missouri State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25HEvansville62-53
26/02/25ASouthern Illinois79-88
23/02/25AMissouri State70-68
20/02/25HBradley82-71
15/02/25AIndiana State76-85
13/02/25HDrake77-84
08/02/25ANorthern Iowa65-68
06/02/25AIllinois (Chi.)81-79
01/02/25HValparaiso86-78
30/01/25HBelmont81-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25ADrake60-68 OT
27/02/25HBelmont65-74
23/02/25HIllinois State68-70
20/02/25AValparaiso64-66
16/02/25AIllinois (Chi.)58-63
13/02/25HEvansville71-54
08/02/25ABelmont68-85
06/02/25HNorthern Iowa61-66
01/02/25HMurray State77-56
30/01/25AIndiana State67-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW58%
HomeWWLWW76%
AwayWLLWL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %58%76%36%
Points / game76.179.971.5
Allowed / game72.470.674.6
Point differential+3.7+9.3-3.1
Avg total148.5150.5146.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%35%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)67% (6)43% (7)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Missouri State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL29%
HomeWLWLL44%
AwayLLLLL13%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %29%44%13%
Points / game68.470.666.1
Allowed / game70.969.472.5
Point differential-2.5+1.2-6.5
Avg total139.3140.0138.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%38%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (10)20% (5)20% (5)
Overtime %16%12%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake3027390%70.859.2+11.5
2 Bradley3124777%78.269.3+8.9
3 Belmont31211068%80.477.7+2.7
4 Northern Iowa31201165%73.967.3+6.6
5 Illinois State31181358%76.172.4+3.7
6 Illinois (Chi.)31181358%77.474.0+3.3
7 Murray State31151648%72.169.6+2.5
8 Indiana State32141844%80.179.5+0.6
9 Southern Illinois32141844%73.574.6-1.1
10 Valparaiso31131842%75.675.2+0.4
11 Evansville31112035%66.570.6-4.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty2923679%75.461.7+13.7
2 Middle Tenn. St.2920969%75.971.4+4.5
3 Jacksonville State30201067%74.668.6+6.1
4 Louisiana Tech29191066%74.468.5+5.9
5 UTEP29171259%72.769.8+2.9
6 Kennesaw State30171357%76.473.0+3.5
7 New Mexico State29161355%69.565.5+4.0
8 Western Kentucky29161355%75.874.9+0.9
9 Delaware31121939%76.478.7-2.3
10 Sam Houston St.29111838%75.275.8-0.6
11 Florida International2992031%70.472.4-2.0
12 Missouri State3192229%68.470.9-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois State383270
Missouri State233154
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