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Illinois State vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 29 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 75-74
33-36 42-38
Position#240
Record14-15
FormLWWWL
Points / game66.5
Allowed / game67.5
vs
Position#198
Record15-14
FormLLWLL
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game72.7
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Illinois State v Missouri State
06 Mar 2025
ILLI70
MISS54
18 Jan 2025
ILLI74
MISS68
28 Feb 2024
ILLI75
MISS74
11 Jan 2023
ILLI76
MISS66
01 Dec 2021
ILLI79
MISS74
07 Feb 2021
ILLI62
MISS72
06 Feb 2021
ILLI67
MISS74
07 Jan 2020
ILLI63
MISS67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belmont
#128
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H24/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
54-58
54
58
-4
A27/01
NCAA
Murray State
#296
W
61-59
61
59
+2
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
60-73
60
73
-13
H03/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H08/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A11/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
80-67
80
67
+13
A14/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
86-79
86
79
+7
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
81-73
81
73
+8
H22/02
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
41-30
36-37
21-27
33-31
24-26
37-33
20-39
40-34
28-33
28-28
25-42
41-27
35-29
45-38
44-36
42-43
37-34
44-39
21-21
24-27
132.0Avg total
66.6Scored
65.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)66.567.5134.0-1.048%
Season at home (16)68.265.8134.0+2.462%
Season away (13)64.469.5133.9-5.231%
Last 10 (10)66.665.4132.0+1.250%
Last 5 (5)71.667.2138.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)62.873.0135.8-10.28%
vs Similar ◀ (15)68.565.1133.6+3.373%
vs Weaker (2)67.561.5129.0+6.050%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#15
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H25/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
81-70
81
70
+11
A27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
W
76-75 OT
76
75
+1
A01/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
W
87-80
87
80
+7
H03/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
65-72
65
72
-7
A08/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
72-82
72
82
-10
A15/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
82-74
82
74
+8
H17/02
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
62-86
62
86
-24
H22/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
78-93
78
93
-15
A24/02
NCAA
1H
2H
29-42
36-23
40-37
41-33
31-42
32-21
36-37
51-43
32-30
33-42
36-35
35-38
37-35
35-47
38-41
44-33
27-33
35-53
38-46
40-47
154.2Avg total
75.7Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)72.072.7144.7-0.752%
Season at home (15)74.570.8145.3+3.767%
Season away (14)69.474.7144.1-5.336%
Last 10 (10)75.778.5154.2-2.850%
Last 5 (5)73.081.6154.6-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)68.078.2146.2-10.238%
vs Similar ◀ (16)70.669.8140.4+0.850%
vs Weaker (6)77.769.8147.5+7.867%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -2.1-2.11st half: -3.4-3.42nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -2.1-2.11st half: -3.4-3.42nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +0.2+0.2
Illinois StateMissouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belmont
#128
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H24/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
21-27
21
27
-6
A27/01
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
24-26
24
26
-2
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
20-39
20
39
-19
H03/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H08/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
25-42
25
42
-17
A11/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A14/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Bradley
#71
D
21-21
21
21
+0
A25/02
NCAA
61.3Avg total
29.6Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.333.563.9-3.237%-
Last 30 at home (16)31.731.262.9+0.456%-
Last 30 away (14)28.836.164.9-7.414%-
Last 10 (10)29.631.761.3-2.140%-
Last 5 (5)32.432.464.8+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)26.337.063.3-10.78%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)32.931.864.7+1.153%-
vs Weaker (2)31.028.059.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#15
L
29-42
29
42
-13
H25/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H03/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A08/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#296
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A15/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H17/02
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
27-33
27
33
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A24/02
NCAA
72.2Avg total
34.4Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.734.167.8-0.453%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.533.167.6+1.353%-
Last 30 away (15)32.935.067.9-2.153%-
Last 10 (10)34.437.872.2-3.440%-
Last 5 (5)35.238.073.2-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)29.638.267.9-8.612%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)35.133.468.4+1.769%-
vs Weaker (6)35.530.365.8+5.267%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Illinois State wins
5
Missouri State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/24ABradley45-48
22/02/24HNorthern Iowa81-73
18/02/24HEvansville86-79
14/02/24AIndiana State80-67
11/02/24ASouthern Illinois66-69
08/02/24HIllinois (Chi.)56-61
03/02/24HBradley60-73
31/01/24AMurray State61-59
27/01/24AEvansville54-58
24/01/24HBelmont77-67
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/24ABelmont78-93
22/02/24HBradley62-86
17/02/24HValparaiso82-74
15/02/24AMurray State72-82
10/02/24HIndiana State71-73
08/02/24ANorthern Iowa65-72
03/02/24HBelmont87-80
01/02/24ASouthern Illinois76-75 OT
27/01/24AValparaiso81-70
25/01/24HDrake83-80 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL48%
HomeWLLWW62%
AwayLWLWL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291613
Win %48%62%31%
Points / game66.568.264.4
Allowed / game67.565.869.5
Point differential-1.0+2.4-5.2
Avg total134.0134.0133.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%25%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)67% (3)33% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Missouri State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL52%
HomeWWLWL67%
AwayWWLLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %52%67%36%
Points / game72.074.569.4
Allowed / game72.770.874.7
Point differential-0.7+3.7-5.3
Avg total144.7145.3144.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%33%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %10%7%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State2924583%84.472.0+12.3
2 Drake2923679%80.069.7+10.3
3 Bradley2920969%74.867.3+7.4
4 Southern Illinois29191066%72.666.6+6.0
5 Belmont29171259%77.877.2+0.6
6 Northern Iowa30171357%73.270.7+2.5
7 Evansville29151452%72.873.4-0.6
8 Illinois State29141548%66.567.5-1.0
9 Murray State29121741%71.069.1+1.9
10 Illinois (Chi.)29111838%69.870.0-0.2
11 Valparaiso3062420%67.675.3-7.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisiana Tech2820871%74.563.2+11.3
2 Western Kentucky2719870%80.073.8+6.2
3 Sam Houston St.28171161%71.669.8+1.8
4 Liberty27161159%75.165.1+10.0
5 Delaware29171259%74.170.0+4.1
6 Kennesaw State29151452%82.880.0+2.7
7 Missouri State29151452%72.072.7-0.7
8 Jacksonville State28141450%70.465.4+5.0
9 UTEP28131546%73.169.9+3.1
10 Middle Tenn. St.28121643%65.769.3-3.6
11 New Mexico State28111739%67.771.9-4.1
12 Florida International2891932%73.776.3-2.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois State334275
Missouri State363874
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