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Illinois State vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 76-66 (OT)
30-34 31-27 15-5
Position#303
Record7-10
FormWLLLW
Points / game66.4
Allowed / game68.3
vs
Position#177
Record8-8
FormWWWWL
Points / game66.3
Allowed / game62.1
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Illinois State v Missouri State
06 Mar 2025
ILLI70
MISS54
18 Jan 2025
ILLI74
MISS68
28 Feb 2024
ILLI75
MISS74
11 Jan 2023
ILLI76
MISS66
01 Dec 2021
ILLI79
MISS74
07 Feb 2021
ILLI62
MISS72
06 Feb 2021
ILLI67
MISS74
07 Jan 2020
ILLI63
MISS67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murray State
#182
L
67-70 OT
67
70
-3
A02/12
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H04/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
W
87-81
87
81
+6
H08/12
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#141
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H10/12
NCAA
Ball State
#103
L
69-83
69
83
-14
A17/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#297
W
66-52
66
52
+14
H20/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A29/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H31/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
67-76
67
76
-9
H05/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
69-61
69
61
+8
A07/01
NCAA
1H
2H
27-35
35-27
30-31
57-46
41-35
46-46
33-34
44-37
34-41
35-42
33-23
33-29
17-33
34-22
25-31
35-35
29-47
38-29
34-31
35-30
139.2Avg total
70.0Scored
69.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)66.468.3134.7-1.941%
Season at home (8)72.470.5142.9+1.950%
Season away (9)61.166.3127.4-5.233%
Last 10 (10)70.069.2139.2+0.850%
Last 5 (5)62.662.0124.6+0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)68.474.1142.6-5.719%
vs Similar (12)63.364.9128.2-1.642%
vs Weaker (2)78.071.0149.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
66-51
66
51
+15
A01/12
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
40-58
40
58
-18
H04/12
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#32
L
46-66
46
66
-20
A08/12
NCAA
IPFW
#173
L
61-65
61
65
-4
H11/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#9
L
77-80
77
80
-3
A17/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
79-58
79
58
+21
H18/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
W
79-67
79
67
+12
A29/12
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H01/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
85-62
85
62
+23
H05/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
61-74
61
74
-13
A07/01
NCAA
1H
2H
32-26
34-25
18-26
22-32
21-26
25-40
29-30
32-35
32-45
45-35
40-30
39-28
40-29
39-38
30-23
22-26
40-25
45-37
35-37
26-37
127.6Avg total
64.6Scored
63.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)66.362.1128.4+4.250%
Season at home (7)67.755.7123.4+12.071%
Season away (9)65.267.0132.2-1.833%
Last 10 (10)64.663.0127.6+1.650%
Last 5 (5)71.262.0133.2+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)53.863.2117.0-9.525%
vs Similar (10)66.566.0132.5+0.540%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)77.465.8143.1+11.686%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.8-3.81st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: -0.4-0.4
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.8-3.81st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: -0.4-0.4
Illinois StateMissouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murray State
#182
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A02/12
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
30-31
30
31
-1
H04/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H08/12
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#141
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H10/12
NCAA
Ball State
#103
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A17/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#297
W
33-23
33
23
+10
H20/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
17-33
17
33
-16
A29/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
25-31
25
31
-6
H31/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
29-47
29
47
-18
H05/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A07/01
NCAA
64.4Avg total
30.3Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.434.264.6-3.833%-
Last 30 at home (15)32.934.467.3-1.540%-
Last 30 away (15)27.934.162.0-6.127%-
Last 10 (10)30.334.164.4-3.830%-
Last 5 (5)27.633.060.6-5.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)30.935.666.5-4.825%-
vs Similar (12)28.632.661.2-4.033%-
vs Weaker (2)37.533.070.5+4.5100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
32-26
32
26
+6
A01/12
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
18-26
18
26
-8
H04/12
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#32
L
21-26
21
26
-5
A08/12
NCAA
IPFW
#173
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H11/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#9
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A17/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H18/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A29/12
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H01/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
40-25
40
25
+15
H05/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A07/01
NCAA
61.4Avg total
31.7Scored
29.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.231.465.7+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (14)35.728.163.9+7.679%-
Last 30 away (16)32.934.367.2-1.438%-
Last 10 (10)31.729.761.4+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)37.028.865.8+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)25.230.055.2-4.825%-
vs Similar (10)33.930.964.8+3.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)35.431.666.9+3.871%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Illinois State wins
5
Missouri State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/23AEvansville69-61
05/01/23HIndiana State67-76
31/12/22HNorthern Iowa60-66
29/12/22AIllinois (Chi.)51-55
20/12/22HChicago State66-52
17/12/22ABall State69-83
10/12/22HSiu Edwardsville77-71
08/12/22HEastern Michigan87-81
04/12/22HBelmont87-77
02/12/22AMurray State67-70 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/23ABelmont61-74
05/01/23HEvansville85-62
01/01/23HDrake52-49
29/12/22ANorthern Iowa79-67
18/12/22HCentral Michigan79-58
17/12/22AOral Roberts77-80
11/12/22HIPFW61-65
08/12/22ASt. Marys (CA)46-66
04/12/22HBradley40-58
01/12/22AIllinois (Chi.)66-51

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW41%
HomeWWWLL50%
AwayLLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %41%50%33%
Points / game66.472.461.1
Allowed / game68.370.566.3
Point differential-1.9+1.9-5.2
Avg total134.7142.9127.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %6%0%11%
Missouri State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL50%
HomeLLWWW71%
AwayWLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %50%71%33%
Points / game66.367.765.2
Allowed / game62.155.767.0
Point differential+4.2+12.0-1.8
Avg total128.4123.4132.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%57%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)50% (2)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State1813572%79.769.3+10.4
2 Drake1813572%72.763.8+8.9
3 Southern Illinois1813572%66.760.4+6.3
4 Belmont1812667%74.270.2+4.1
5 Bradley1711665%69.759.6+10.1
6 Northern Iowa179853%69.965.6+4.3
7 Murray State179853%70.469.2+1.2
8 Illinois (Chi.)189950%66.969.2-2.3
9 Illinois State1771041%66.468.3-1.9
10 Valparaiso1861233%67.673.9-6.3
11 Evansville1741324%61.972.9-10.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sam Houston St.1612475%78.057.1+20.9
2 Liberty1712571%75.158.8+16.4
3 Kennesaw State1711665%73.868.1+5.8
4 Louisiana Tech1610662%77.268.4+8.8
5 Western Kentucky159660%74.167.4+6.7
6 Delaware1710759%70.470.3+0.1
7 Middle Tenn. St.169756%69.965.7+4.2
8 UTEP158753%69.566.7+2.7
9 Missouri State168850%66.362.1+4.2
10 Florida International168850%73.775.3-1.6
11 New Mexico State167944%75.168.0+7.1
12 Jacksonville State1771041%69.471.5-2.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Illinois State30311576
Missouri State3427566
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