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Illinois State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 10 Feb 2022
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 78-75 (OT)
33-37 37-33 8-5
Position#269
Record10-14
FormLLLLL
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game76.7
vs
Position#242
Record11-12
FormWWLLW
Points / game71.7
Allowed / game70.6
USANCAA
Other2021-22
Meetings · Illinois State v Valparaiso
16 Jan 2027
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
12 Feb 2026
ILLI86
VALP64
01 Feb 2025
ILLI86
VALP78
14 Jan 2024
ILLI50
VALP59
21 Jan 2023
ILLI51
VALP71
09 Feb 2022
ILLI78
VALP75
24 Jan 2021
ILLI66
VALP70
23 Jan 2021
ILLI60
VALP69
03 Jan 2021
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
02 Jan 2021
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
15 Feb 2020
ILLI62
VALP65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#242
L
76-81 OT
76
81
-5
A02/01
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
75-86
75
86
-11
A13/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
W
74-65
74
65
+9
H17/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
63-88
63
88
-25
A20/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
94-56
94
56
+38
H22/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
L
53-56
53
56
-3
A23/01
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
88-89 OT
88
89
-1
H27/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
64-79
64
79
-15
A29/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
64-78
64
78
-14
A03/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H06/02
NCAA
1H
2H
31-39
39-31
42-44
33-42
26-40
48-25
34-44
29-44
44-34
50-22
25-19
28-37
38-37
41-42
28-30
36-49
22-42
42-36
38-41
31-34
147.3Avg total
72.0Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)77.176.7153.8+0.442%
Season at home (14)79.673.4153.1+6.264%
Season away (10)73.581.3154.8-7.810%
Last 10 (10)72.075.3147.3-3.320%
Last 5 (5)67.675.4143.0-7.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)75.982.0157.9-6.125%
vs Similar ◀ (10)68.568.7137.2-0.230%
vs Weaker (6)85.375.0160.3+10.367%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#269
W
81-76 OT
81
76
+5
H02/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
65-92
65
92
-27
A06/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H09/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
74-81 OT
74
81
-7
A12/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
57-74
57
74
-17
H15/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H20/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
W
75-73
75
73
+2
A22/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
56-71
56
71
-15
H27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
W
79-72 OT
79
72
+7
H06/02
NCAA
1H
2H
39-31
31-39
22-43
43-49
22-32
38-31
30-22
25-33
26-34
31-40
34-39
38-33
35-40
40-33
22-37
34-34
28-43
27-34
33-34
27-26
144.4Avg total
68.5Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)71.770.6142.3+1.148%
Season at home (14)74.168.5142.6+5.650%
Season away (9)68.073.8141.8-5.844%
Last 10 (10)68.575.9144.4-7.440%
Last 5 (5)69.674.6144.2-5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)62.269.1131.3-6.911%
vs Similar ◀ (16)66.670.9137.6-4.344%
vs Weaker (4)83.062.5145.5+20.5100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -4.2-4.21st half: -6.4-6.42nd half2nd half: +1.5+1.52nd half: -1.8-1.8
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -4.2-4.21st half: -6.4-6.42nd half2nd half: +1.5+1.52nd half: -1.8-1.8
Illinois StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#242
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A02/01
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A13/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
26-40
26
40
-14
H17/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A20/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H22/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
25-19
25
19
+6
A23/01
NCAA
Drake
#64
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H27/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A29/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
22-42
22
42
-20
A03/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H06/02
NCAA
69.8Avg total
32.8Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.734.768.4-1.040%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.534.869.3-0.344%-
Last 30 away (14)32.834.667.4-1.836%-
Last 10 (10)32.837.069.8-4.230%-
Last 5 (5)30.233.864.0-3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)32.139.471.5-7.317%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)31.432.764.1-1.330%-
vs Weaker (6)37.831.269.0+6.783%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#269
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H02/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
22-43
22
43
-21
A06/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
22-32
22
32
-10
H09/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
30-22
30
22
+8
A12/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H15/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H20/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A22/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
22-37
22
37
-15
H27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H06/02
NCAA
64.6Avg total
29.1Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.432.963.2-2.530%-
Last 30 at home (17)31.931.163.0+0.835%-
Last 30 away (13)28.435.263.5-6.823%-
Last 10 (10)29.135.564.6-6.420%-
Last 5 (5)30.438.669.0-8.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)27.031.458.4-4.433%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)29.435.164.5-5.812%-
vs Weaker (4)38.830.068.8+8.875%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Illinois State wins
5
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/02/22HSouthern Illinois69-75
03/02/22ALoyola Chicago64-78
29/01/22ANorthern Iowa64-79
27/01/22HDrake88-89 OT
23/01/22AEvansville53-56
22/01/22HEvansville94-56
20/01/22AMissouri State63-88
17/01/22HBradley74-65
13/01/22ADrake75-86
02/01/22AValparaiso76-81 OT
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/02/22HIndiana State79-72 OT
30/01/22ASouthern Illinois55-77
27/01/22HBradley56-71
22/01/22AIndiana State75-73
20/01/22HNorthern Iowa83-80 OT
15/01/22HMissouri State57-74
12/01/22ALoyola Chicago74-81 OT
09/01/22HSouthern Illinois60-63
06/01/22ANorthern Iowa65-92
02/01/22HIllinois State81-76 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL42%
HomeWWWLL64%
AwayLLLLL10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241410
Win %42%64%10%
Points / game77.179.673.5
Allowed / game76.773.481.3
Point differential+0.4+6.2-7.8
Avg total153.8153.1154.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%36%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)75% (4)0% (4)
Overtime %21%21%20%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW48%
HomeLLWLW50%
AwayWLLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games23149
Win %48%50%44%
Points / game71.774.168.0
Allowed / game70.668.573.8
Point differential+1.1+5.6-5.8
Avg total142.3142.6141.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%29%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)33% (6)100% (2)
Overtime %22%29%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State2422292%81.262.9+18.3
2 Belmont2520580%81.969.9+12.0
3 Drake2417771%75.567.2+8.3
4 Northern Iowa2213959%74.769.6+5.0
5 Bradley24131154%71.865.3+6.5
6 Southern Illinois24121250%63.760.9+2.8
7 Valparaiso23111248%71.770.6+1.1
8 Illinois State24101442%77.176.7+0.4
9 Indiana State2391439%71.471.1+0.3
10 Illinois (Chi.)2181338%70.572.8-2.2
11 Evansville2261627%58.768.3-9.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Illinois State3337878
Valparaiso3733575
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