PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Japan vs China Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 26 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 80-87
21-11 26-22 9-25 24-29
Position#16
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game68.5
vs
China 🏆
Position#30
Record0-2
FormWWLLL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game85.0
EuropeWorld CupRound 3· Okinawa Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Japan v China
26 Feb 2026
JAPA80
CHIN87
25 Feb 2024
JAPA76
CHIN73
28 Nov 2021
JAPA73
CHIN106
16 Jun 2021
JAPA57
CHIN66
27 Sep 2014
JAPA79
CHIN72
14 Jul 2014
JAPA66
CHIN79
20 Sep 2012
JAPA60
CHIN50
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Japan winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
China winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

JapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJapan
Date
Competition
Mongolia
#15
W
93-75
93
75
+18
no box
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
no box
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
58-100
58
100
-42
no box
A20/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
89-79
89
79
+10
no box
A23/02
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
W
99-68
99
68
+31
95avg 82
H06/08
Asia Cup
Iran
#3
L
70-78
70
78
-8
66avg 82
A08/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
102-63
102
63
+39
109avg 82
A10/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
L
73-97
73
97
-24
64avg 82
H12/08
Asia Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
90-64
90
64
+26
no box
H28/11
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
80-73
80
73
+7
no box
A01/12
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-22
25-14
20-15
26-24
20-15
28-16
20-22
15-25
12-19
21-31
12-19
13-31
23-22
23-22
21-18
22-17
18-13
14-28
28-10
39-17
13-16
21-18
24-24
12-20
27-15
25-18
26-19
24-11
19-23
22-30
23-28
9-16
23-10
22-12
20-20
25-22
17-22
25-14
15-21
23-16
161.2Avg total
83.7Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)85.068.5153.5+16.5100%
Season at home (1)90.064.0154.0+26.0100%
Season away (1)80.073.0153.0+7.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.777.5161.2+6.270%
Last 5 (5)83.075.0158.0+8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.684.6155.1-14.029%
vs Similar (6)80.387.5167.8-7.233%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)85.867.2152.9+18.694%
This opponent (China) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormChina
Date
Competition
Japan
#6
W
100-58
100
58
+42
no box
H20/02
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
86-78
86
78
+8
no box
A23/02
Asia Cup
Saudi Arabia
#10
W
93-88
93
88
+5
88avg 87
H05/08
Asia Cup
India
#23
W
100-69
100
69
+31
100avg 87
A07/08
Asia Cup
Jordan
#7
W
90-68
90
68
+22
86avg 87
H09/08
Asia Cup
South Korea
#8
W
79-71
79
71
+8
73avg 87
H14/08
Asia Cup
New Zealand
#4
W
98-84
98
84
+14
95avg 87
H16/08
Asia Cup
Australia
#1
L
89-90
89
90
-1
83avg 87
A17/08
Asia Cup
South Korea
#46
L
76-80
76
80
-4
no box
H28/11
World Cup
South Korea
#46
L
76-90
76
90
-14
no box
A01/12
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-12
31-21
19-12
31-13
19-16
25-17
22-23
20-22
30-22
23-21
27-22
13-23
29-14
24-17
22-17
25-21
24-14
23-24
18-12
25-18
25-24
21-11
18-20
15-16
28-19
14-21
26-26
30-18
25-17
21-25
25-26
18-22
16-24
18-23
18-14
24-19
13-28
16-24
23-28
24-10
166.3Avg total
88.7Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)76.085.0161.0-9.00%
Season at home (1)76.080.0156.0-4.00%
Season away (1)76.090.0166.0-14.00%
Last 10 (10)88.777.6166.3+11.170%
Last 5 (5)83.683.0166.6+0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)65.992.8158.6-26.912%
vs Similar (5)79.889.8169.6-10.020%
vs Weaker (17)89.666.8156.4+22.988%
This opponent (Japan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +4.3+4.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +4.3+4.3
JapanChina
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
JapanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mongolia
#15
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A24/11
Asia Cup
China
#2
L
33-50
33
50
-17
A20/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A23/02
Asia Cup
Syria
#20
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H06/08
Asia Cup
Iran
#3
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A08/08
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
52-33
52
33
+19
A10/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H12/08
Asia Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H28/11
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A01/12
World Cup
80.0Avg total
42.0Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.838.978.7+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.937.077.9+3.947%-
Last 30 away (15)38.740.879.5-2.147%-
Last 10 (10)42.038.080.0+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)42.835.678.4+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.144.378.4-10.114%-
vs Similar (6)34.746.381.0-11.70%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)44.034.178.1+9.976%-
This opponent (China) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Japan
#6
W
50-33
50
33
+17
H20/02
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
44-33
44
33
+11
A23/02
Asia Cup
Saudi Arabia
#10
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H05/08
Asia Cup
India
#23
W
53-31
53
31
+22
A07/08
Asia Cup
Jordan
#7
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H09/08
Asia Cup
South Korea
#8
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H14/08
Asia Cup
New Zealand
#4
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H16/08
Asia Cup
Australia
#1
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A17/08
Asia Cup
South Korea
#46
L
34-47
34
47
-13
H28/11
World Cup
South Korea
#46
L
29-52
29
52
-23
A01/12
World Cup
83.8Avg total
44.4Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.138.679.7+2.657%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.036.080.0+8.071%-
Last 30 away (16)38.640.879.4-2.244%-
Last 10 (10)44.439.483.8+5.080%-
Last 5 (5)39.443.282.6-3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)34.246.480.6-12.112%-
vs Similar (5)37.047.084.0-10.020%-
vs Weaker (17)45.632.478.0+13.288%-
This opponent (Japan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Japantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀35%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.014.2
52.6%
-28.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.212.6
33.9%
-37.8
🏀 Free throws18.914.8
78.3%
-14.8
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 58% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Chinatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

China: 91.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.022.4
56.0%
-44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.710.1
39.3%
-30.3
🏀 Free throws21.116.7
79.1%
-16.7
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Japan
WWLWLWWLWW
China
LLLWWWWWWW
#16
League position
#30
+6.7
Net rating
+29.3
106.5
Offensive rating
123.9
99.8
Defensive rating
94.6
51.6%
Effective FG%
57.2%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
45.2%
16.8%
Turnover %
15.1%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
37.3%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.32
33.9%
3-point %
39.3%
73.5%
Assist %
62.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Japan   ■ China
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Japan wins
6
China wins
DateGameScore
20/02/25China v Japan100-58
25/02/24Japan v China76-73
28/11/21Japan v China73-106
27/11/21China v Japan79-63
19/06/21China v Japan90-84
16/06/21Japan v China57-66
27/09/14Japan v China79-72
14/07/14Japan v China66-79
20/09/12Japan v China60-50
Japanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/25AChinese Taipei80-73
28/11/25HChinese Taipei90-64
12/08/25HLebanon73-97
10/08/25AGuam102-63
08/08/25AIran70-78
06/08/25HSyria99-68
23/02/25AMongolia89-79
20/02/25AChina58-100
24/11/24AGuam83-78
21/11/24HMongolia93-75
Chinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/25ASouth Korea76-90
28/11/25HSouth Korea76-80
17/08/25AAustralia89-90
16/08/25HNew Zealand98-84
14/08/25HSouth Korea79-71
09/08/25HJordan90-68
07/08/25AIndia100-69
05/08/25HSaudi Arabia93-88
23/02/25AGuam86-78
20/02/25HJapan100-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Japan
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game85.090.080.0
Allowed / game68.564.073.0
Point differential+16.5+26.0+7.0
Avg total153.5154.0153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
China
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game76.076.076.0
Allowed / game85.080.090.0
Point differential-9.0-4.0-14.0
Avg total161.0156.0166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Argentina220100%92.558.5+34.0
2 Jordan220100%87.053.5+33.5
3 Philippines220100%91.058.5+32.5
4 Croatia660100%94.566.5+28.0
5 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
6 Saudi Arabia220100%78.054.0+24.0
7 Turkey220100%89.065.5+23.5
8 Canada220100%102.581.5+21.0
9 Iran220100%90.069.5+20.5
10 Germany220100%86.066.5+19.5
11 Spain220100%82.062.5+19.5
12 Greece220100%83.566.0+17.5
13 Uruguay220100%88.571.0+17.5
14 Japan220100%85.068.5+16.5
15 Brazil220100%80.064.0+16.0
16 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
17 Czech Republic220100%97.086.0+11.0
18 South Korea220100%85.076.0+9.0
19 Poland220100%87.580.5+7.0
20 Australia330100%85.378.7+6.7
21 Jamaica220100%94.591.0+3.5
22 Serbia220100%82.079.0+3.0
23 Colombia110100%80.078.0+2.0
24 Ukraine65183%82.572.8+9.7
25 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
26 Switzerland128467%75.466.5+8.9
27 Hungary64267%82.874.8+8.0
28 Netherlands64267%80.375.0+5.3
29 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
30 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
31 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
32 Romania106460%75.674.6+1.0
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Austria105550%86.078.6+7.4
35 Portugal21150%75.569.0+6.5
36 Latvia21150%82.077.0+5.0
37 Slovenia21150%93.588.5+5.0
38 France21150%77.573.0+4.5
39 Dominican Republic21150%90.087.0+3.0
40 Great Britain21150%89.086.5+2.5
41 Qatar21150%80.079.0+1.0
42 Finland21150%82.582.5+0.0
43 Lithuania21150%85.085.0+0.0
44 Iceland21150%82.583.0-0.5
45 Lebanon21150%79.080.0-1.0
46 Estonia21150%93.095.0-2.0
47 Italy21150%79.081.0-2.0
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Mexico21150%87.090.0-3.0
50 Montenegro21150%71.079.0-8.0
51 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
52 Denmark62433%75.080.3-5.3
53 Nigeria31233%69.375.3-6.0
54 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
55 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
56 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
57 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
58 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
59 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
60 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
61 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
62 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
63 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
64 Venezuela1010%78.080.0-2.0
65 New Zealand2020%78.081.5-3.5
66 Puerto Rico2020%91.094.5-3.5
67 Belgium2020%74.083.0-9.0
68 China2020%76.085.0-9.0
69 Rwanda3030%68.378.7-10.3
70 Bosnia & Herzegovina2020%71.583.5-12.0
71 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
72 Sweden2020%81.595.5-14.0
73 Chile2020%64.080.0-16.0
74 Chinese Taipei2020%68.585.0-16.5
75 Israel2020%70.087.0-17.0
76 Panama2020%71.088.5-17.5
77 Iraq2020%69.590.0-20.5
78 Bahamas2020%81.5102.5-21.0
79 Georgia2020%70.091.0-21.0
80 India2020%54.078.0-24.0
81 Guam3030%65.791.7-26.0
82 Cyprus2020%62.091.5-29.5
83 Syria2020%53.587.0-33.5
84 Cuba2020%58.592.5-34.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 84 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Japan212692480
China1122252987
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.