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Jurbarkas vs Ukmerges Stekas Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 93-75
Projected total 167.2
Scheduled
Position#2
Record11-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game88.6
Allowed / game78.3
Vs
94%
■ JURB 94%■ UKME 6%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
3.3/10
Below normal
Position#13
Record5-9
FormLLLWW
Points / game78.9
Allowed / game88.1
LithuaniaNKLRound 15· Jurbarko Antano Giedraicio Gymnasium Sport Hall
Other2026-27
Meetings · Jurbarkas v Ukmerges Stekas
19 Nov 2026
JURB v UKME
upcoming
15 Nov 2025
JURB80
UKME77
02 Nov 2024
JURB77
UKME65
12 Oct 2023
JURB70
UKME73
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Jurbarkas host Ukmerges Stekas on 19 November 2026 in the NKL, and the Pythia model names Jurbarkas the clear favourite with a 94% chance of victory, a reflection of their 11-2 season record, 88.6 points scored per game and only 78.3 allowed, placing them second in the league. Ukmerges Stekas trail with a 5-9 record, 78.9 points per game and 88.1 allowed, sitting thirteenth. Jurbarkas have won five of their last six home games, including a 93-82 win over Plunges Olimpas and a 102-101 win over Telsiai, while Ukmerges Stekas have won two of their last six away games, notably a 96-91 win over Plunges Olimpas. In their seven prior encounters Jurbarkas have edged out Ukmerges Stekas four times, the most recent being an 87-79 win on 3 March 2026. Pythia projects a 93-75 scoreline, a total of 167.2 points, and a 1% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jurbarkas win
93.8%fair 1.07
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Ukmerges Stekas win
6.2%fair 16.02
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

JurbarkasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJurbarkas
Date
Competition
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
81-72
81
72
+9
69avg 80
H17/10
NKL
Nevezis
#2
L
69-93
69
93
-24
59avg 80
H20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
W
93-79
93
79
+14
88avg 80
A22/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
W
86-79
86
79
+7
76avg 80
A29/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
72-79
72
79
-7
62avg 80
H31/10
NKL
Taurage
#4
W
91-77
91
77
+14
no box
H03/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
97-86
97
86
+11
no box
A05/11
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
102-101
102
101
+1
no box
H07/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
93-82
93
82
+11
no box
H12/11
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
67-82
67
82
-15
no box
A14/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
19-17
20-23
26-19
20-27
25-21
13-24
11-21
26-22
19-23
26-19
22-15
21-23
19-18
27-25
19-13
21-22
12-14
19-21
20-22
28-21
15-18
23-13
25-25
38-15
18-24
16-22
25-25
27-25
32-23
21-26
22-27
21-16
23-11
22-29
27-26
20-17
12-20
12-17
23-28
168.1Avg total
85.1Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)88.678.3166.9+10.385%
Season at home (6)88.780.0168.7+8.783%
Season away (7)88.676.9165.4+11.786%
Last 10 (10)85.183.0168.1+2.170%
Last 5 (5)90.085.6175.6+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.196.0176.1-15.929%
vs Similar (6)85.575.7161.2+9.8100%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)90.579.9170.5+10.688%
This opponent (Ukmerges Stekas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ukmerges StekasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormStekas
Date
Competition
Omega-Tauras
#9
L
73-87
73
87
-14
55avg 72
H15/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
76-107
76
107
-31
67avg 72
H17/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
70-104
70
104
-34
62avg 72
A22/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
74-70
74
70
+4
71avg 72
H24/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#14
L
76-97
76
97
-21
62avg 72
A29/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
64-87
64
87
-23
no box
H03/11
NKL
Vilkaviskis
#11
L
74-97
74
97
-23
no box
A05/11
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#8
L
58-73
58
73
-15
no box
H07/11
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
76-69
76
69
+7
no box
H12/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
96-91
96
91
+5
no box
A14/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-27
18-25
14-16
16-19
13-30
27-27
21-26
15-24
16-31
20-27
18-21
16-25
14-19
17-17
18-17
25-17
20-32
14-27
19-20
23-18
9-20
21-23
16-21
18-23
12-24
15-29
22-22
25-22
12-14
17-27
17-9
12-23
19-16
25-20
11-20
21-13
23-21
12-26
29-26
32-18
161.9Avg total
73.7Scored
88.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)78.988.1167.1-9.236%
Season at home (8)77.283.8161.0-6.538%
Season away (6)81.294.0175.2-12.833%
Last 10 (10)73.788.2161.9-14.530%
Last 5 (5)73.683.4157.0-9.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)78.289.2167.5-11.021%
vs Similar (6)79.885.8165.7-6.050%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Jurbarkas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 163
Over 163
60.3%
Under 163
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 168
Over 168
47.8%
Under 168
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173
Over 173
35.5%
Under 173
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Jurbarkas total 81
Over 81
88.6%
Under 81
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jurbarkas total 85
Over 85
78.7%
Under 85
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jurbarkas total 89
Over 89
64.7%
Under 89
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 79
Over 79
32.3%
Under 79
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 83
Over 83
19.4%
Under 83
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 87
Over 87
10.5%
Under 87
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Jurbarkas -3
JURB -3
91.2%
UKME +3
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
JURB
No market prices yet.
UKME
No market prices yet.
Spread Jurbarkas 0
JURB 0
93.8%
UKME 0
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
JURB
No market prices yet.
UKME
No market prices yet.
Spread Jurbarkas +3
JURB +3
96.0%
UKME -3
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
JURB
No market prices yet.
UKME
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: -7.1-7.1Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -6.2-6.2Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +0.1+0.1
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: -7.1-7.1Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -6.2-6.2Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +0.1+0.1
JurbarkasUkmerges Stekas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
JurbarkasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H17/10
NKL
Nevezis
#2
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A22/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A29/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H31/10
NKL
Taurage
#4
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H03/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A05/11
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H07/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
44-27
44
27
+17
H12/11
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A14/11
NKL
82.2Avg total
43.2Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.638.682.2+5.063%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.437.581.9+6.973%-
Last 30 away (15)42.739.782.5+3.053%-
Last 10 (10)43.239.082.2+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)46.838.084.8+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.447.689.0-6.129%-
vs Similar (6)44.036.280.2+7.883%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)44.335.880.1+8.571%-
This opponent (Ukmerges Stekas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ukmerges StekasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Omega-Tauras
#9
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H15/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
40-57
40
57
-17
H17/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
36-58
36
58
-22
A22/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H24/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#14
L
34-59
34
59
-25
A29/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H03/11
NKL
Vilkaviskis
#11
L
27-53
27
53
-26
A05/11
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#8
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H07/11
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H12/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A14/11
NKL
83.1Avg total
34.9Scored
48.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.745.281.9-8.517%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.544.180.6-7.622%-
Last 30 away (12)36.946.883.8-9.98%-
Last 10 (10)34.948.283.1-13.310%-
Last 5 (5)33.044.077.0-11.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)36.245.181.2-8.917%-
vs Similar (6)38.745.784.3-7.017%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Jurbarkas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Jurbarkastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Jurbarkas: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.420.7
51.2%
54.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.79.2
30.0%
31.3%27.6
🏀 Free throws21.314.7
69.0%
67.1%14.7
They take 71.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ukmerges Stekastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ukmerges Stekas: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.521.5
51.8%
54.5%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.29.3
31.8%
31.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws19.413.1
67.5%
67.1%13.1
They take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Jurbarkas
LWWWWLWWLW
Ukmerges Stekas
WWLLLLWLLL
#2
League position
#13
+8.7
Net rating
-9.0
90.6
Offensive rating
90.1
81.9
Defensive rating
99.1
48.5%
Effective FG%
50.1%
46.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.6%
14.8%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.27
30.0%
3-point %
31.8%
69.6%
Assist %
64.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence90.6 · 90.1Defence81.9 · 99.1Shooting48.5% · 50.1%3-point %30.0% · 31.8%Ball care14.8% · 15.0%Free throws0.30 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Jurbarkas   ■ Ukmerges Stekas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Jurbarkas wins
3
Ukmerges Stekas wins
Jurbarkaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANeptunas 267-82
12/11/26HPlunges Olimpas93-82
07/11/26HTelsiai102-101
05/11/26AOmega-Tauras97-86
03/11/26HTaurage91-77
31/10/26HSilute72-79
29/10/26AKretinga86-79
22/10/26AZalgiris Kaunas 293-79
20/10/26HNevezis69-93
17/10/26HKedainiai BC81-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APlunges Olimpas96-91
12/11/26HRytas 276-69
07/11/26HAlytaus Patriotai58-73
05/11/26AVilkaviskis74-97
03/11/26HNeptunas 264-87
29/10/26AKedainiai BC76-97
24/10/26HMazeikiai74-70
22/10/26ATelsiai70-104
17/10/26HBC Olimpas Palanga76-107
15/10/26HOmega-Tauras73-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Jurbarkas
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL85%
HomeWWLWW83%
AwayWWWWL86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %85%83%86%
Points / game88.688.788.6
Allowed / game78.380.076.9
Point differential+10.3+8.7+11.7
Avg total166.9168.7165.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%50%71%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ukmerges Stekas
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW36%
HomeLWLLW38%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1486
Win %36%38%33%
Points / game78.977.281.2
Allowed / game88.183.894.0
Point differential-9.2-6.5-12.8
Avg total167.1161.0175.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %7%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai1312192%90.573.6+16.9
2 Jurbarkas1311285%88.678.3+10.3
3 BC Olimpas Palanga1411379%96.384.6+11.6
4 Suduva-Mantinga1310377%91.577.8+13.8
5 Vytis VDU129375%96.189.1+7.0
6 Neptunas 21410471%78.474.1+4.2
7 Silute128467%84.382.2+2.2
8 Alytaus Patriotai148657%83.884.9-1.1
9 Omega-Tauras147750%89.485.9+3.4
10 Plunges Olimpas147750%83.181.1+2.1
11 Vilkaviskis146843%83.186.1-3.0
12 Zalgiris Kaunas 2125742%94.296.8-2.7
13 Ukmerges Stekas145936%78.988.1-9.2
14 Kedainiai BC1441029%76.885.0-8.2
15 Mazeikiai1431121%78.988.9-10.0
16 Kretinga1321115%81.590.7-9.2
17 Kauno Atletas1421214%79.194.4-15.3
18 Rytas 2141137%77.186.9-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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