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Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 12 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#136
Record3-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game75.8
vs
Position#156
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game89.7
Allowed / game75.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Kentucky v Louisville
12 Dec 2026
KENT v LOUI
upcoming
14 Dec 2024
KENT93
LOUI85
31 Dec 2022
KENT86
LOUI63
28 Dec 2019
KENT78
LOUI70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida
#28
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
87-82
87
82
+5
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
63-82
63
82
-19
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#320
W
85-57
85
57
+28
H04/11
NCAA
James Madison
#286
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H07/11
NCAA
Kansas
#10
L
69-89
69
89
-20
H11/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#378
W
78-77
78
77
+1
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-49
45-35
46-43
41-39
38-29
40-43
28-37
35-34
29-31
44-42
30-31
33-51
48-22
37-35
39-39
50-41
36-46
33-43
45-37
33-40
155.6Avg total
77.8Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.275.8156.0+4.575%
Season at home (4)80.275.8156.0+4.575%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.877.8155.6+0.060%
Last 5 (5)76.877.0153.8-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)71.682.1153.7-10.614%
vs Similar (16)79.877.6157.3+2.269%
vs Weaker (7)83.970.4154.3+13.4100%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
92-89
92
89
+3
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#214
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#238
W
107-57
107
57
+50
H07/11
NCAA
Memphis
#142
L
78-98
78
98
-20
A15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
46-37
46-52
26-26
36-32
38-37
35-41
37-27
46-52
31-36
38-41
56-35
28-35
46-33
61-24
–
–
154.8Avg total
80.0Scored
74.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)89.775.0164.7+14.767%
Season at home (2)95.563.5159.0+32.0100%
Season away (1)78.098.0176.0-20.00%
Last 10 (10)80.074.8154.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)84.276.2160.4+8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar (7)74.780.3155.0-5.629%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)86.371.6158.0+14.781%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +0.9+0.9
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +0.9+0.9
KentuckyLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida
#28
L
32-49
32
49
-17
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#320
W
48-22
48
22
+26
H04/11
NCAA
James Madison
#286
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H07/11
NCAA
Kansas
#10
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H11/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#378
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H14/11
NCAA
73.5Avg total
37.1Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.437.072.3-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.736.774.4+1.144%-
Last 30 away (12)31.837.469.2-5.633%-
Last 10 (10)37.136.473.5+0.740%-
Last 5 (5)39.635.074.6+4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.740.072.7-7.314%-
vs Similar (16)34.638.172.7-3.631%-
vs Weaker (7)39.931.371.1+8.686%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
26-26
26
26
+0
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#214
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#238
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H07/11
NCAA
71.6Avg total
39.3Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)40.333.473.8+6.959%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.631.272.8+10.475%-
Last 30 away (13)38.836.274.9+2.638%-
Last 10 (9)39.332.271.6+7.167%-
Last 5 (5)41.633.675.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (7)35.034.769.7+0.343%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)42.532.575.0+10.065%-
This opponent (Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Kentucky wins
2
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
12/11/25Louisville v Kentucky96-88
14/12/24Kentucky v Louisville93-85
21/12/23Louisville v Kentucky76-95
31/12/22Kentucky v Louisville86-63
26/12/20Louisville v Kentucky62-59
28/12/19Kentucky v Louisville78-70 OT
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HNorthern Arizona78-77
11/11/26HKansas69-89
07/11/26HJames Madison89-80
04/11/26HManhattan85-57
22/03/26AIowa State63-82
20/03/26HSanta Clara89-84 OT
13/03/26AFlorida63-71
12/03/26AMissouri78-72
11/03/26HLSU87-82
07/03/26HFlorida77-84
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AMemphis78-98
07/11/26HMorehead State107-57
03/11/26HChattanooga Mocs84-70
21/03/26AMichigan State69-77
19/03/26HSouth Florida83-79
12/03/26AMiami (FL)73-78
11/03/26HSMU Mustangs62-58
07/03/26AMiami (FL)92-89
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLW75%
HomeWWLW75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game80.280.2-
Allowed / game75.875.8-
Point differential+4.5+4.5-
Avg total156.0156.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%25%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Louisville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game89.795.578.0
Allowed / game75.063.598.0
Point differential+14.7+32.0-20.0
Avg total164.7159.0176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
3 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
4 LSU440100%90.859.5+31.2
5 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
6 South Carolina440100%78.856.5+22.2
7 Alabama440100%97.076.0+21.0
8 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
9 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
10 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
11 Mississippi St.43175%87.267.5+19.8
12 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
13 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
14 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
15 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
16 Auburn32167%78.764.0+14.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
2 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
3 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
4 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
5 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
6 Boston College440100%74.053.5+20.5
7 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
8 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
9 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
10 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
13 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
14 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
15 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Louisville32167%89.775.0+14.7
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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