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Kentucky vs Mississippi St. Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 92-68
44-39 48-29
Position#107
Record9-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game69.5
Kentucky 🏆
USA
vs
Mississippi St.
USA
Position#257
Record11-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game74.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Kentucky v Mississippi St.
10 Jan 2026
KENT92
MISS68
17 Jan 2024
KENT90
MISS77
25 Jan 2022
KENT82
MISS74
11 Mar 2021
KENT73
MISS74
04 Feb 2020
KENT80
MISS72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mississippi St. winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
88-46
88
46
+42
H22/11
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
104-54
104
54
+50
H27/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H03/12
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
59-94
59
94
-35
H06/12
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
103-67
103
67
+36
H10/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
72-60
72
60
+12
H14/12
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H20/12
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
99-85
99
85
+14
H23/12
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
74-89
74
89
-15
A03/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
68-73
68
73
-5
H08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
50-20
38-26
43-28
61-26
31-31
33-36
20-43
39-51
52-31
51-36
32-39
40-21
25-32
53-34
46-38
53-47
34-50
40-39
32-33
36-40
151.0Avg total
80.9Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)83.169.5152.6+13.560%
Season at home (13)83.466.0149.4+17.469%
Season away (2)81.092.5173.5-11.50%
Last 10 (10)80.970.1151.0+10.860%
Last 5 (5)78.274.6152.8+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)72.891.8164.5-19.00%
vs Similar (17)77.277.3154.5-0.153%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)94.759.6154.2+35.1100%
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mississippi St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans
#226
W
81-78 OT
81
78
+3
H25/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
81-87 OT
81
87
-6
H29/11
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
85-73
85
73
+12
A04/12
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
62-65
62
65
-3
H07/12
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
82-74
82
74
+8
A14/12
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
87-83
87
83
+4
H17/12
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
71-66
71
66
+5
H20/12
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
94-56
94
56
+38
H30/12
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
101-98 OT
101
98
+3
A03/01
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
W
72-53
72
53
+19
H08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
28-34
40-34
43-39
31-35
37-28
48-45
22-30
40-35
32-42
50-32
39-38
48-45
34-30
37-36
49-31
45-25
48-43
38-43
27-27
45-26
154.9Avg total
81.6Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)81.974.7156.6+7.173%
Season at home (10)80.569.8150.3+10.780%
Season away (5)84.684.6169.2+0.060%
Last 10 (10)81.673.3154.9+8.380%
Last 5 (5)85.071.2156.2+13.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)78.083.2161.2-5.233%
vs Similar (14)80.475.8156.1+4.664%
vs Weaker (4)80.863.2144.0+17.5100%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +8.8+8.82nd half: +6.6+6.6
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +8.8+8.82nd half: +6.6+6.6
KentuckyMississippi St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Maryland
#314
W
50-20
50
20
+30
H22/11
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H27/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H03/12
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
20-43
20
43
-23
H06/12
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
52-31
52
31
+21
H10/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H14/12
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H20/12
NCAA
Bellarmine
#279
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H23/12
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A03/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H08/01
NCAA
71.0Avg total
36.5Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.835.172.8+2.757%-
Last 30 at home (21)37.831.168.9+6.767%-
Last 30 away (9)37.744.382.0-6.733%-
Last 10 (10)36.534.571.0+2.040%-
Last 5 (5)33.838.472.2-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.847.279.0-15.50%-
vs Similar (17)35.237.973.1-2.647%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.224.369.6+20.9100%-
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mississippi St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans
#226
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H25/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H29/11
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A04/12
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H07/12
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A14/12
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H17/12
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H20/12
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
49-31
49
31
+18
H30/12
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A03/01
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H08/01
NCAA
70.1Avg total
35.9Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.435.972.3+0.550%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.134.770.8+1.450%-
Last 30 away (12)36.837.874.6-0.950%-
Last 10 (10)35.934.270.1+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)39.433.873.2+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)36.338.875.2-2.542%-
vs Similar (14)36.535.271.7+1.350%-
vs Weaker (4)36.229.565.8+6.875%-
This opponent (Kentucky) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Kentucky wins
1
Mississippi St. wins
DateGameScore
12/01/25Mississippi St. v Kentucky90-95
28/02/24Mississippi St. v Kentucky89-91
18/01/24Kentucky v Mississippi St.90-77
16/02/23Mississippi St. v Kentucky68-71
26/01/22Kentucky v Mississippi St.82-74 OT
11/03/21Kentucky v Mississippi St.73-74
02/01/21Mississippi St. v Kentucky73-78 OT
05/02/20Kentucky v Mississippi St.80-72
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26HMissouri68-73
03/01/26AAlabama74-89
23/12/25HBellarmine99-85
20/12/25HSt. John's (N.Y.)78-66
14/12/25HIndiana72-60
10/12/25HN. Carolina Central103-67
06/12/25HGonzaga59-94
03/12/25HNorth Carolina64-67
27/11/25HTennessee Tech104-54
22/11/25HLoyola Maryland88-46
Mississippi St.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26HOklahoma72-53
03/01/26ATexas101-98 OT
30/12/25HAlabama State94-56
20/12/25HMemphis71-66
17/12/25HLIU Sharks87-83
14/12/25AUtah Utes82-74
07/12/25HSan Francisco62-65
04/12/25AGeorgia Tech85-73
29/11/25HSMU Mustangs81-87 OT
25/11/25HNew Orleans81-78 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL60%
HomeWWWWL69%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15132
Win %60%69%0%
Points / game83.183.481.0
Allowed / game69.566.092.5
Point differential+13.5+17.4-11.5
Avg total152.6149.4173.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%69%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mississippi St.
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW73%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLWWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15105
Win %73%80%60%
Points / game81.980.584.6
Allowed / game74.769.884.6
Point differential+7.1+10.7+0.0
Avg total156.6150.3169.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%40%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)75% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %20%20%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vanderbilt16160100%93.072.1+20.9
2 Georgia1614288%96.474.9+21.6
3 Texas A&M1613381%93.777.4+16.2
4 LSU1612475%85.672.5+13.1
5 Arkansas1612475%89.476.9+12.5
6 Missouri1612475%81.771.7+10.0
7 Mississippi St.1511473%81.974.7+7.1
8 Tennessee1611569%82.467.2+15.1
9 Florida1611569%85.270.9+14.2
10 Oklahoma1611569%84.472.9+11.6
11 Alabama1611569%93.582.7+10.8
12 Texas1610662%87.875.1+12.7
13 South Carolina1610662%79.569.6+9.9
14 Auburn1610662%87.579.1+8.4
15 Kentucky159660%83.169.5+13.5
16 Ole Miss169756%75.269.6+5.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Kentucky444892
Mississippi St.392968
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