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Virginia vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 75-60
36-20 39-40
Position#36
Record22-6
FormWWLLW
Points / game67.9
Allowed / game60.5
Virginia 🏆
USA
vs
Louisville
USA
Position#367
Record4-26
FormLWLLL
Points / game64.1
Allowed / game75.7
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Virginia v Louisville
04 Jan 2025
VIRG50
LOUI70
03 Jan 2024
VIRG77
LOUI53
04 Mar 2023
VIRG75
LOUI60
09 Mar 2022
VIRG51
LOUI50
24 Jan 2022
VIRG64
LOUI52
06 Feb 2021
VIRG v LOUI
upcoming
07 Mar 2020
VIRG57
LOUI54
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#221
W
76-57
76
57
+19
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#180
W
67-62
67
62
+5
A31/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
L
68-74
68
74
-6
A04/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
63-50
63
50
+13
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
W
69-62 OT
69
62
+7
H11/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A16/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#221
L
48-63
48
63
-15
A23/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A25/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
64-57
64
57
+7
H01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-27
41-30
36-35
31-27
30-32
38-42
34-20
29-30
25-27
33-31
29-26
32-32
29-25
28-30
21-28
27-35
26-42
37-29
28-23
36-34
124.5Avg total
63.6Scored
60.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)67.960.5128.4+7.479%
Season at home (16)68.356.5124.8+11.894%
Season away (12)67.465.8133.2+1.658%
Last 10 (10)63.660.9124.5+2.770%
Last 5 (5)58.660.8119.4-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.059.5117.5-1.550%
vs Similar (16)68.263.1131.3+5.269%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)68.057.2125.2+10.892%
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#302
L
62-76
62
76
-14
A28/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#241
W
68-58
68
58
+10
H02/02
NCAA
Florida State
#342
L
78-81
78
81
-3
H04/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#72
L
57-91
57
91
-34
A08/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
85-93
85
93
-8
A12/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H16/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
83-73
83
73
+10
H19/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
62-79
62
79
-17
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#241
L
67-83
67
83
-16
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
L
54-71
54
71
-17
H01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
24-46
38-30
33-28
35-30
36-45
42-36
27-47
30-44
41-42
44-51
26-29
32-32
39-36
44-37
33-42
29-37
32-45
35-38
27-35
27-36
144.0Avg total
67.4Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)64.175.7139.8-11.513%
Season at home (18)64.471.8136.2-7.322%
Season away (12)63.781.5145.2-17.80%
Last 10 (10)67.476.6144.0-9.220%
Last 5 (5)64.873.4138.2-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)64.276.4140.6-12.110%
vs Similar (1)61.055.0116.0+6.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.8+0.81st half: -7.7-7.72nd half2nd half: +1.2+1.22nd half: -1.5-1.5
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.8+0.81st half: -7.7-7.72nd half2nd half: +1.2+1.22nd half: -1.5-1.5
VirginiaLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#221
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#180
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A31/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A04/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
34-20
34
20
+14
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
25-27
25
27
-2
H11/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A16/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
29-25
29
25
+4
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#221
L
21-28
21
28
-7
A23/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A25/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
28-23
28
23
+5
H01/03
NCAA
57.8Avg total
29.3Scored
28.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.927.858.8+3.160%-
Last 30 at home (17)30.925.256.2+5.765%-
Last 30 away (13)30.931.262.2-0.354%-
Last 10 (10)29.328.557.8+0.860%-
Last 5 (5)26.628.855.4-2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)26.525.051.5+1.550%-
vs Similar (16)30.229.359.5+0.944%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)32.726.359.0+6.383%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#302
L
24-46
24
46
-22
A28/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#241
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H02/02
NCAA
Florida State
#342
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H04/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#72
L
27-47
27
47
-20
A08/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A12/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H16/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H19/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#241
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H01/03
NCAA
71.3Avg total
31.8Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)29.736.966.5-7.223%-
Last 30 at home (18)29.435.364.8-5.933%-
Last 30 away (12)30.039.269.2-9.28%-
Last 10 (10)31.839.571.3-7.720%-
Last 5 (5)31.437.468.8-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)29.937.467.4-7.521%-
vs Similar (1)22.020.042.0+2.0100%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Virginia wins
1
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
16/02/23Louisville v Virginia58-61
10/03/22Virginia v Louisville51-50
05/03/22Louisville v Virginia61-71
25/01/22Virginia v Louisville64-52
06/03/21Louisville v Virginia58-68
07/03/20Virginia v Louisville57-54
08/02/20Louisville v Virginia80-73
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/23HClemson64-57
25/02/23ANorth Carolina63-71
23/02/23ABoston College48-63
18/02/23HNotre Dame57-55
16/02/23ALouisville61-58
11/02/23HDuke69-62 OT
08/02/23HNC State63-50
04/02/23AVirginia Tech68-74
31/01/23ASyracuse67-62
28/01/23HBoston College76-57
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/23HVirginia Tech54-71
25/02/23AGeorgia Tech67-83
21/02/23ADuke62-79
19/02/23HClemson83-73
16/02/23HVirginia58-61
12/02/23AMiami (FL)85-93
08/02/23APittsburgh57-91
04/02/23HFlorida State78-81
02/02/23HGeorgia Tech68-58
28/01/23ANotre Dame62-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW79%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWLWLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281612
Win %79%94%58%
Points / game67.968.367.4
Allowed / game60.556.565.8
Point differential+7.4+11.8+1.6
Avg total128.4124.8133.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%44%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)100% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %4%6%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL13%
HomeWLLWL22%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %13%22%0%
Points / game64.164.463.7
Allowed / game75.771.881.5
Point differential-11.5-7.3-17.8
Avg total139.8136.2145.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (6)0% (6)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virginia2822679%67.960.5+7.4
2 Duke3022873%72.164.0+8.1
3 NC State3122971%78.470.3+8.1
4 Clemson3021970%75.168.2+6.9
5 Pittsburgh3021970%75.969.0+6.9
6 North Carolina30191163%77.171.6+5.5
7 Wake Forest30181260%77.273.8+3.4
8 Miami (FL)60352558%76.572.8+3.7
9 Virginia Tech30171357%74.169.4+4.7
10 Syracuse30161453%74.273.1+1.1
11 Boston College30151550%66.469.9-3.5
12 Stanford30131743%69.967.5+2.3
13 Georgia Tech30131743%69.570.7-1.2
14 Notre Dame30111937%70.071.8-1.8
15 SMU Mustangs30102033%70.174.8-4.7
16 Florida State3092130%70.076.5-6.6
17 Louisville3042613%64.175.7-11.5
18 California3032710%58.370.2-11.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia363975
Louisville204060
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