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Virginia vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 04 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 77-53
37-22 40-31
Position#66
Record10-3
FormWWLWL
Points / game65.8
Allowed / game56.2
vs
Position#348
Record5-7
FormLLLWL
Points / game74.6
Allowed / game75.4
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Virginia v Louisville
04 Jan 2025
VIRG50
LOUI70
03 Jan 2024
VIRG77
LOUI53
04 Mar 2023
VIRG75
LOUI60
09 Mar 2022
VIRG51
LOUI50
24 Jan 2022
VIRG64
LOUI52
06 Feb 2021
VIRG v LOUI
upcoming
07 Mar 2020
VIRG57
LOUI54
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#210
W
62-33
62
33
+29
H17/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
41-65
41
65
-24
A20/11
NCAA
West Virginia
#338
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H22/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#139
W
59-47
59
47
+12
H30/11
NCAA
Syracuse
#110
W
84-62
84
62
+22
H02/12
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#142
W
77-47
77
47
+30
H06/12
NCAA
Northeastern
#298
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H16/12
NCAA
Memphis
#57
L
54-77
54
77
-23
A20/12
NCAA
Morgan State
#308
W
79-44
79
44
+35
H28/12
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
L
54-76
54
76
-22
A30/12
NCAA
1H
2H
26-14
36-19
18-28
23-37
26-23
30-31
27-26
32-21
37-24
47-38
41-17
36-30
24-30
32-24
32-38
22-39
43-16
36-28
24-41
30-35
118.1Avg total
62.2Scored
55.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)65.856.2121.9+9.677%
Season at home (10)70.651.2121.8+19.4100%
Season away (3)49.772.7122.3-23.00%
Last 10 (10)62.255.9118.1+6.370%
Last 5 (5)64.059.6123.6+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)77.047.0124.0+30.0100%
vs Similar (17)65.860.5126.2+5.365%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)65.458.4123.8+7.083%
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coppin State
#368
W
61-41
61
41
+20
H16/11
NCAA
Texas
#112
L
80-81
80
81
-1
H19/11
NCAA
Indiana
#153
L
66-74
66
74
-8
H20/11
NCAA
New Mexico State
#285
W
90-84 OT
90
84
+6
H26/11
NCAA
Bellarmine
#342
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H30/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A03/12
NCAA
DePaul
#367
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A09/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#186
L
63-75
63
75
-12
H14/12
NCAA
Pepperdine
#287
W
85-63
85
63
+22
H17/12
NCAA
Kentucky
#50
L
76-95
76
95
-19
H21/12
NCAA
1H
2H
32-21
29-20
38-41
42-40
29-34
37-40
28-30
45-43
22-27
51-41
31-30
37-45
22-38
46-37
31-29
32-46
39-25
46-38
33-53
43-42
146.1Avg total
73.0Scored
73.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)74.675.4150.0-0.842%
Season at home (10)75.975.5151.4+0.450%
Season away (2)68.075.0143.0-7.00%
Last 10 (10)73.073.1146.1-0.140%
Last 5 (5)72.076.6148.6-4.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)68.877.7146.5-9.015%
vs Similar (2)81.576.0157.5+5.5100%
vs Weaker (2)64.558.0122.5+6.550%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.1+4.11st half: -2.3-2.32nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +1.6+1.6
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.1+4.11st half: -2.3-2.32nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +1.6+1.6
VirginiaLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#210
W
26-14
26
14
+12
H17/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
18-28
18
28
-10
A20/11
NCAA
West Virginia
#338
W
26-23
26
23
+3
H22/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#139
W
27-26
27
26
+1
H30/11
NCAA
Syracuse
#110
W
37-24
37
24
+13
H02/12
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#142
W
41-17
41
17
+24
H06/12
NCAA
Northeastern
#298
L
24-30
24
30
-6
H16/12
NCAA
Memphis
#57
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A20/12
NCAA
Morgan State
#308
W
43-16
43
16
+27
H28/12
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
L
24-41
24
41
-17
A30/12
NCAA
55.5Avg total
29.8Scored
25.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.726.658.3+5.170%-
Last 30 at home (21)33.023.656.6+9.486%-
Last 30 away (9)28.733.662.2-4.933%-
Last 10 (10)29.825.755.5+4.160%-
Last 5 (5)32.828.461.2+4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)41.017.058.0+24.0100%-
vs Similar (17)30.427.057.4+3.465%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)32.826.859.7+6.075%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coppin State
#368
W
32-21
32
21
+11
H16/11
NCAA
Texas
#112
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H19/11
NCAA
Indiana
#153
L
29-34
29
34
-5
H20/11
NCAA
New Mexico State
#285
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H26/11
NCAA
Bellarmine
#342
L
22-27
22
27
-5
H30/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A03/12
NCAA
DePaul
#367
L
22-38
22
38
-16
A09/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#186
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H14/12
NCAA
Pepperdine
#287
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H17/12
NCAA
Kentucky
#50
L
33-53
33
53
-20
H21/12
NCAA
63.3Avg total
30.5Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.736.467.1-5.630%-
Last 30 at home (19)31.335.066.3-3.732%-
Last 30 away (11)29.738.768.5-9.027%-
Last 10 (10)30.532.863.3-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)31.235.066.2-3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)31.537.569.0-6.031%-
vs Similar (2)25.028.553.5-3.50%-
vs Weaker (2)27.029.556.5-2.550%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Virginia wins
1
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
04/03/23Virginia v Louisville75-60
16/02/23Louisville v Virginia58-61
10/03/22Virginia v Louisville51-50
05/03/22Louisville v Virginia61-71
25/01/22Virginia v Louisville64-52
06/03/21Louisville v Virginia58-68
07/03/20Virginia v Louisville57-54
08/02/20Louisville v Virginia80-73
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/23ANotre Dame54-76
28/12/23HMorgan State79-44
20/12/23AMemphis54-77
16/12/23HNortheastern56-54
06/12/23HN. Carolina Central77-47
02/12/23HSyracuse84-62
30/11/23HTexas A&M59-47
22/11/23HWest Virginia56-54
20/11/23AWisconsin41-65
17/11/23HTexas Southern62-33
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/23HKentucky76-95
17/12/23HPepperdine85-63
14/12/23HArkansas State63-75
09/12/23ADePaul68-75
03/12/23AVirginia Tech68-75
30/11/23HBellarmine73-68
26/11/23HNew Mexico State90-84 OT
20/11/23HIndiana66-74
19/11/23HTexas80-81
16/11/23HCoppin State61-41

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL77%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %77%100%0%
Points / game65.870.649.7
Allowed / game56.251.272.7
Point differential+9.6+19.4-23.0
Avg total121.9121.8122.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%70%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL42%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games12102
Win %42%50%0%
Points / game74.675.968.0
Allowed / game75.475.575.0
Point differential-0.8+0.4-7.0
Avg total150.0151.4143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %8%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Clemson1211192%82.269.2+13.1
2 Duke1310377%83.566.6+16.9
3 Miami (FL)1310377%83.169.9+13.2
4 North Carolina1310377%85.072.0+13.0
5 Wake Forest1310377%81.568.7+12.8
6 Virginia1310377%65.856.2+9.6
7 NC State129375%79.870.2+9.7
8 SMU Mustangs1410471%75.661.6+14.0
9 Syracuse1410471%77.571.5+6.0
10 Boston College139469%79.371.8+7.5
11 Virginia Tech139469%73.466.1+7.3
12 Georgia Tech128467%71.771.1+0.6
13 Pittsburgh149564%78.865.1+13.6
14 Stanford126650%79.875.3+4.4
15 Florida State126650%76.273.8+2.4
16 Notre Dame136746%63.665.6-2.0
17 Louisville125742%74.675.4-0.8
18 California134931%75.877.4-1.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia374077
Louisville223153
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