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Louisville vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 27 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 52-69
13-41 39-28
Position#348
Record6-13
FormWLLLL
Points / game72.9
Allowed / game78.1
Louisville
USA
vs
Virginia 🏆
USA
Position#66
Record14-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game65.2
Allowed / game57.9
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Louisville v Virginia
13 Jan 2026
LOUI70
VIRG79
18 Jan 2025
LOUI81
VIRG67
27 Jan 2024
LOUI52
VIRG69
15 Feb 2023
LOUI58
VIRG61
05 Mar 2022
LOUI61
VIRG71
06 Mar 2021
LOUI58
VIRG68
08 Feb 2020
LOUI80
VIRG73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#186
L
63-75
63
75
-12
H14/12
NCAA
Pepperdine
#287
W
85-63
85
63
+22
H17/12
NCAA
Kentucky
#50
L
76-95
76
95
-19
H21/12
NCAA
Virginia
#66
L
53-77
53
77
-24
A04/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
70-83
70
83
-13
H06/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A11/01
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
83-89
83
89
-6
H13/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A18/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A20/01
NCAA
Duke
#32
L
69-83
69
83
-14
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
31-29
32-46
39-25
46-38
33-53
43-42
22-37
31-40
34-40
36-43
37-41
43-30
35-44
48-45
29-46
41-40
33-48
32-42
34-45
35-38
152.6Avg total
71.4Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)72.978.1151.0-5.232%
Season at home (13)75.577.7153.2-2.238%
Season away (6)67.379.0146.3-11.717%
Last 10 (10)71.481.2152.6-9.820%
Last 5 (5)73.483.8157.2-10.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)70.379.3149.5-9.019%
vs Similar (2)81.576.0157.5+5.5100%
vs Weaker (2)64.558.0122.5+6.550%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northeastern
#298
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H16/12
NCAA
Memphis
#57
L
54-77
54
77
-23
A20/12
NCAA
Morgan State
#308
W
79-44
79
44
+35
H28/12
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
L
54-76
54
76
-22
A30/12
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
77-53
77
53
+24
H04/01
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
60-76
60
76
-16
A06/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
47-66
47
66
-19
A13/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
65-57
65
57
+8
H18/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#265
W
75-66
75
66
+9
A20/01
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
59-53 OT
59
53
+6
H25/01
NCAA
1H
2H
24-30
32-24
32-38
22-39
43-16
36-28
24-41
30-35
37-22
40-31
28-35
32-41
21-27
26-39
25-18
40-39
33-29
42-37
27-15
20-32
124.8Avg total
62.6Scored
62.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)65.257.9123.1+7.274%
Season at home (13)69.851.9121.7+17.8100%
Season away (6)55.271.0126.2-15.817%
Last 10 (10)62.662.2124.8+0.460%
Last 5 (5)61.263.6124.8-2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.056.5118.5+5.550%
vs Similar (17)64.360.1124.4+4.265%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)65.357.6122.9+7.682%
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -8.1-8.11st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: -1.7-1.72nd half: -2.5-2.5
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -8.1-8.11st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: -1.7-1.72nd half: -2.5-2.5
LouisvilleVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#186
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H14/12
NCAA
Pepperdine
#287
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H17/12
NCAA
Kentucky
#50
L
33-53
33
53
-20
H21/12
NCAA
Virginia
#66
L
22-37
22
37
-15
A04/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H06/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A11/01
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H13/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A18/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
33-48
33
48
-15
A20/01
NCAA
Duke
#32
L
34-45
34
45
-11
H24/01
NCAA
73.5Avg total
32.7Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.537.569.0-6.123%-
Last 30 at home (18)32.435.768.1-3.328%-
Last 30 away (12)30.140.270.3-10.217%-
Last 10 (10)32.740.873.5-8.120%-
Last 5 (5)33.644.878.4-11.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)32.338.871.2-6.523%-
vs Similar (2)25.028.553.5-3.50%-
vs Weaker (2)27.029.556.5-2.550%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northeastern
#298
L
24-30
24
30
-6
H16/12
NCAA
Memphis
#57
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A20/12
NCAA
Morgan State
#308
W
43-16
43
16
+27
H28/12
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
L
24-41
24
41
-17
A30/12
NCAA
Louisville
#348
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H04/01
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A06/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#119
L
21-27
21
27
-6
A13/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
W
25-18
25
18
+7
H18/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#265
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A20/01
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
27-15
27
15
+12
H25/01
NCAA
56.5Avg total
29.4Scored
27.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.225.655.7+4.667%-
Last 30 at home (21)32.022.554.6+9.586%-
Last 30 away (9)25.832.758.4-6.922%-
Last 10 (10)29.427.156.5+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)26.824.851.6+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.022.053.0+9.050%-
vs Similar (17)28.926.155.1+2.865%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)31.925.457.3+6.573%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Louisville wins
8
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
04/01/24Virginia v Louisville77-53
04/03/23Virginia v Louisville75-60
16/02/23Louisville v Virginia58-61
10/03/22Virginia v Louisville51-50
05/03/22Louisville v Virginia61-71
25/01/22Virginia v Louisville64-52
06/03/21Louisville v Virginia58-68
07/03/20Virginia v Louisville57-54
08/02/20Louisville v Virginia80-73
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/24HDuke69-83
20/01/24AWake Forest65-90
18/01/24ANorth Carolina70-86
13/01/24HNC State83-89
11/01/24AMiami (FL)80-71
06/01/24HPittsburgh70-83
04/01/24AVirginia53-77
21/12/23HKentucky76-95
17/12/23HPepperdine85-63
14/12/23HArkansas State63-75
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/24HNC State59-53 OT
20/01/24AGeorgia Tech75-66
18/01/24HVirginia Tech65-57
13/01/24AWake Forest47-66
06/01/24ANC State60-76
04/01/24HLouisville77-53
30/12/23ANotre Dame54-76
28/12/23HMorgan State79-44
20/12/23AMemphis54-77
16/12/23HNortheastern56-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL32%
HomeWLLLL38%
AwayLLWLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19136
Win %32%38%17%
Points / game72.975.567.3
Allowed / game78.177.779.0
Point differential-5.2-2.2-11.7
Avg total151.0153.2146.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%15%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %5%8%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW74%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLLLW17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19136
Win %74%100%17%
Points / game65.269.855.2
Allowed / game57.951.971.0
Point differential+7.2+17.8-15.8
Avg total123.1121.7126.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%62%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (3)-
Overtime %5%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina1916384%83.569.1+14.5
2 Duke1814478%81.767.0+14.7
3 Virginia1914574%65.257.9+7.2
4 Clemson1813572%80.773.1+7.7
5 SMU Mustangs1913668%75.762.7+13.1
6 Wake Forest1913668%80.270.6+9.6
7 NC State1913668%76.169.6+6.4
8 Syracuse1913668%75.372.4+2.9
9 Miami (FL)2013765%81.072.2+8.8
10 Pittsburgh1912763%76.366.6+9.6
11 Virginia Tech1912763%73.868.3+5.6
12 Florida State1912763%77.073.3+3.7
13 Boston College1911858%77.073.2+3.8
14 Stanford1910953%78.876.3+2.6
15 Georgia Tech1991047%73.175.1-2.0
16 California2081240%75.576.3-0.8
17 Notre Dame1971237%62.765.5-2.8
18 Louisville1961332%72.978.1-5.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville133952
Virginia412869
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