Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 08:30

Final 94-74

28-19 15-20 27-16 24-19

Position#3

Record5-5

FormWLLWW

Points / game96.7

Allowed / game92.5

Melbourne United 🏆

70%

30%

■ MELB 70%■ NEW 30%

Pythia win probability

Projected 97-91

Projected total 187.7

New Zealand Breakers

Position#9

Record4-6

FormLWLLL

Points / game92.2

Allowed / game90.6

NBLRound 7· John Cain Arena

Other2026-27

Meetings · Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

On 2 November 2026 the NBL will see Melbourne United host the New Zealand Breakers in a matchup that the Pythia model deems a comfortable 70% win for the home side, with a projected 97-91 scoreline and a 187.7 total; the Breakers carry a 30% chance of victory. Melbourne United finish the season 5-5, averaging 96.7 points and allowing 92.5, and sit in fifth place, while the Breakers are 4-6, 92.2 points for and 90.6 against, ninth in the standings. In the last five games Melbourne won three and lost two, highlighted by a 113-97 win over Cairns Taipans away on 31 October and a 105-95 home victory over Sydney on 25 October, though they fell 102-103 to Perth on 23 October; the Breakers have won only one of their last five, with losses to Adelaide, Cairns and Tasmania in the most recent outings. Historically the teams have met ten times, with Melbourne winning seven and New Zealand three, the most recent encounter ending 97-95 in favour of the Breakers on 30 January 2026. The model sets the home line at -8.5 with a 42% chance of covering, and the 190-point total carries a 43% over probability, while the chance of overtime sits at 5%.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winWon

70.4%fair 1.42

Best odds1.30

Implied75.3%

Edge-4.9pp

New Zealand Breakers winLost

29.6%fair 3.38

Best odds3.87

Implied24.7%

Edge+4.9pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 14:21 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne United Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormUnited

Date

Competition

Adelaide

95-97

-2

85avg 82

H19/09

NBL

South East Melbourne

86-61

+25

78avg 82

A24/09

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

82-84

-2

69avg 82

A01/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

95-107

107

-12

82avg 82

H03/10

NBL

Adelaide

96-91

93avg 82

A07/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

104-99

104

102avg 82

A10/10

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

#10

89-91

-2

81avg 82

H18/10

NBL

Perth

102-103

102

103

-1

96avg 82

A23/10

NBL

Sydney

105-95

105

+10

93avg 82

H25/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

113-97

113

+16

109avg 82

A31/10

NBL

23-25

25-24

22-26

25-22

16-14

29-21

24-22

17-4

14-23

21-29

19-16

28-16

14-18

32-29

35-25

14-35

31-21

25-17

20-21

20-32

17-30

28-23

29-21

30-25

27-21

16-35

22-22

24-13

26-25

22-21

31-31

23-26

32-31

24-20

21-13

28-31

26-33

25-21

34-19

28-24

189.2Avg total

96.7Scored

92.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (10)	96.7	92.5	189.2	+4.2	50%
Season at home (4)	96.0	97.5	193.5	-1.5	25%
Season away (6)	97.2	89.2	186.3	+8.0	67%
Last 10 (10)	96.7	92.5	189.2	+4.2	50%
Last 5 (5)	102.6	97.0	199.6	+5.6	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	95.0	94.7	189.7	+0.3	33%
vs Similar (10)	86.9	91.1	178.0	-4.2	40%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	91.4	88.8	180.2	+2.5	47%

This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

New Zealand Breakers Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormBreakers

Date

Competition

Illawarra Hawks

#10

95-81

+14

84avg 83

H20/09

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

85-88

-3

69avg 83

A22/09

NBL

Perth

93-97

-4

84avg 83

A26/09

NBL

Cairns Taipans

98-75

+23

99avg 83

H30/09

NBL

Adelaide

88-72

+16

84avg 83

A04/10

NBL

Perth

84-100

100

-16

63avg 83

A10/10

NBL

Sydney

102-101

102

101

99avg 83

A14/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

92-98

-6

89avg 83

A18/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

84-86

-2

75avg 83

A25/10

NBL

Adelaide

101-108

101

108

-7

92avg 83

H30/10

NBL

28-24

26-23

22-14

19-20

26-19

18-18

19-28

22-23

26-22

25-25

22-29

20-21

19-18

23-17

30-25

26-15

23-19

25-23

12-15

28-15

22-21

16-20

28-29

18-30

31-29

20-32

24-12

27-28

32-31

19-22

14-17

27-28

25-16

21-23

16-21

22-26

24-28

20-28

28-18

29-34

182.8Avg total

92.2Scored

90.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (10)	92.2	90.6	182.8	+1.6	40%
Season at home (3)	98.0	88.0	186.0	+10.0	67%
Season away (7)	89.7	91.7	181.4	-2.0	29%
Last 10 (10)	92.2	90.6	182.8	+1.6	40%
Last 5 (5)	92.6	98.6	191.2	-6.0	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	90.9	101.7	192.6	-10.8	33%
vs Similar (15)	94.6	92.3	186.9	+2.3	47%
vs Weaker (6)	99.3	90.8	190.2	+8.5	67%

This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 185Actual: Under 185

Over 185

55.7%

@ 1.57-3.8pp

Under 185

44.3%

@ 2.30+3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.57

Marathon Be

1.50

Under

Bet365

2.30

Over/Under 190 · main lineActual: Under 190

Over 190

43.4%

@ 1.95-6.6pp

Under 190

56.6%

@ 1.91+6.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.95

Pinnacle

1.91

1xBet

1.90

Marathon Be

1.88

SBO

1.84

Under

Pinnacle

1.91

Marathon Be

1.90

Bet365

1.85

1xBet

1.84

SBO

1.84

Over/Under 195Actual: Under 195

Over 195

31.9%

@ 2.45-6.4pp

Under 195

68.1%

@ 1.52+6.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.45

Under

Bet365

1.52

Marathon Be

1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Melbourne United total 94.5Actual: Melbourne United under 94.5

Over 94.5

59.1%

@ 1.43-5.6pp

Under 94.5

40.9%

@ 2.65+5.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.43

Betano

1.42

Under

Bet365

2.65

Betano

2.57

Melbourne United total 98.5 · main lineActual: Melbourne United under 98.5

Over 98.5

43.6%

@ 1.87-8.5pp

Under 98.5

56.4%

@ 1.98+8.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.87

BetVictor

1.85

Marathon Be

1.79

1xBet

1.77

Betano

1.70

Under

Betano

1.98

1xBet

1.98

Marathon Be

1.94

Bet365

1.87

BetVictor

1.85

Melbourne United total 102.5Actual: Melbourne United under 102.5

Over 102.5

29.0%

@ 2.30-11.6pp

Under 102.5

71.0%

@ 1.57+11.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.30

Bet365

2.25

Under

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.53

New Zealand Breakers total 87Actual: New Zealand Breakers under 87

Over 87

64.2%

Under 87

35.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

New Zealand Breakers total 91 · main lineActual: New Zealand Breakers under 91

Over 91

48.4%

@ 1.87-1.6pp

Under 91

51.6%

@ 1.87+1.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.87

Under

Marathon Be

1.87

New Zealand Breakers total 95Actual: New Zealand Breakers under 95

Over 95

33.2%

Under 95

66.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Melbourne United -11.5Actual: Melbourne United -11.5

MELB -11.5

31.4%

@ 2.65-8.4pp

NEW +11.5

68.6%

@ 1.55+8.4pp

Best 5 market prices

MELB

Bet365

2.65

Marathon Be

2.35

1xBet

2.31

BetVictor

2.30

Betano

2.25

NEW

Betano

1.55

1xBet

1.53

BetVictor

1.53

Marathon Be

1.51

Bet365

1.45

Spread Melbourne United -8.5 · main lineActual: Melbourne United -8.5

MELB -8.5

41.6%

@ 2.05-8.6pp

NEW +8.5

58.4%

@ 1.92+8.6pp

Best 5 market prices

MELB

Bet365

2.05

Marathon Be

1.95

1xBet

1.93

Pinnacle

1.90

BetVictor

1.85

NEW

Pinnacle

1.92

1xBet

1.87

SBO

1.86

Marathon Be

1.85

Betano

1.83

Spread Melbourne United -5.5Actual: Melbourne United -5.5

MELB -5.5

52.9%

@ 1.72-4.2pp

NEW +5.5

47.1%

@ 2.30+4.2pp

Best 5 market prices

MELB

Bet365

1.72

Pinnacle

1.66

Marathon Be

1.59

1xBet

1.57

Betano

1.57

NEW

BetVictor

2.30

1xBet

2.22

Betano

2.22

Pinnacle

2.21

Marathon Be

2.18

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Melbourne UnitedNew Zealand Breakers

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 48.5
Last 30 (30)	22.2	24.3	46.5	-2.2	37%	50%
Last 30 at home (14)	23.8	23.4	47.2	+0.4	50%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	20.8	25.1	45.9	-4.4	25%	56%
Last 10 (10)	22.6	24.1	46.7	-1.5	50%	40%
Last 5 (5)	25.6	28.0	53.6	-2.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	26.7	27.0	53.7	-0.3	67%	100%
vs Similar (10)	19.8	25.7	45.5	-5.9	20%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	22.8	23.1	45.8	-0.3	41%	41%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 48.5
Last 30 (30)	25.0	22.8	47.9	+2.2	67%	37%
Last 30 at home (12)	24.3	22.7	47.0	+1.7	50%	50%
Last 30 away (18)	25.5	22.9	48.4	+2.6	78%	28%
Last 10 (10)	25.6	22.7	48.3	+2.9	90%	40%
Last 5 (5)	26.8	25.0	51.8	+1.8	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	25.0	26.7	51.7	-1.7	44%	67%
vs Similar (15)	25.3	20.9	46.3	+4.4	80%	27%
vs Weaker (6)	24.3	21.8	46.2	+2.5	67%	17%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 47.5
Last 30 (30)	24.0	22.2	46.3	+1.8	60%	43%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.6	20.9	43.5	+1.8	64%	21%
Last 30 away (16)	25.2	23.4	48.7	+1.8	56%	62%
Last 10 (10)	24.7	24.0	48.7	+0.7	80%	60%
Last 5 (5)	23.0	24.0	47.0	-1.0	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	24.7	23.7	48.3	+1.0	67%	33%
vs Similar (10)	24.4	22.5	46.9	+1.9	50%	60%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	23.7	21.8	45.5	+1.9	65%	35%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 47.5
Last 30 (30)	22.1	24.8	46.9	-2.7	30%	57%
Last 30 at home (12)	23.5	24.5	48.0	-1.0	50%	58%
Last 30 away (18)	21.2	24.9	46.1	-3.8	17%	56%
Last 10 (10)	21.3	23.1	44.4	-1.8	30%	50%
Last 5 (5)	19.2	25.0	44.2	-5.8	0%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	20.9	26.3	47.2	-5.4	33%	44%
vs Similar (15)	21.3	23.1	44.5	-1.8	27%	47%
vs Weaker (6)	25.8	26.5	52.3	-0.7	33%	100%

Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Adelaide

48-49

-1

H19/09

NBL

South East Melbourne

45-35

+10

A24/09

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

35-52

-17

A01/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

46-47

-1

H03/10

NBL

Adelaide

56-38

+18

A07/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

45-53

-8

A10/10

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

#10

43-56

-13

H18/10

NBL

Perth

48-46

A23/10

NBL

Sydney

56-51

H25/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

51-54

-3

A31/10

NBL

95.4Avg total

47.3Scored

48.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 96
Last 30 (30)	46.2	46.6	92.8	-0.4	43%	43%
Last 30 at home (14)	46.4	44.3	90.7	+2.1	57%	29%
Last 30 away (16)	46.0	48.6	94.6	-2.6	31%	56%
Last 10 (10)	47.3	48.1	95.4	-0.8	40%	50%
Last 5 (5)	48.6	52.0	100.6	-3.4	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	51.3	50.7	102.0	+0.7	67%	67%
vs Similar (10)	44.2	48.2	92.4	-4.0	30%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	46.5	44.9	91.4	+1.6	47%	35%

This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Illawarra Hawks

#10

54-47

H20/09

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

44-37

A22/09

NBL

Perth

51-47

A26/09

NBL

Cairns Taipans

42-35

H30/09

NBL

Adelaide

48-42

A04/10

NBL

Perth

38-41

-3

A10/10

NBL

Sydney

51-61

-10

A14/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

51-53

-2

A18/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

46-39

A25/10

NBL

Adelaide

44-56

-12

H30/10

NBL

92.7Avg total

46.9Scored

45.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 96
Last 30 (30)	47.1	47.6	94.7	-0.5	53%	47%
Last 30 at home (12)	47.8	47.2	95.0	+0.7	58%	50%
Last 30 away (18)	46.7	47.9	94.6	-1.2	50%	44%
Last 10 (10)	46.9	45.8	92.7	+1.1	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	46.0	50.0	96.0	-4.0	20%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	45.9	53.0	98.9	-7.1	22%	56%
vs Similar (15)	46.7	44.1	90.7	+2.6	67%	33%
vs Weaker (6)	50.2	48.3	98.5	+1.8	67%	67%

This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Melbourne United win

MELB win

no forecast

@ 1.42

NEW win

no forecast

@ 2.92

1st half Spread Melbourne United -4 · main linePush

MELB -4

no forecast

@ 1.88

NEW +4

no forecast

@ 1.97

1st half Over/Under 96 · main lineActual: Under 96

Over

no forecast

@ 1.93

Under

no forecast

@ 1.88

Melbourne United 1st half total 50 · main lineActual: Melbourne United under 50

Over

no forecast

@ 1.88

Under

no forecast

@ 1.87

New Zealand Breakers 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: New Zealand Breakers under 45.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.90

1st half: MELB + total 96.5

MELB & over

no forecast

@ 2.75

MELB & under

no forecast

@ 2.95

1st half: Draw + total 96.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 26.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: NEW + total 96.5

NEW & over

no forecast

@ 5.25

NEW & under

no forecast

@ 5.50

1st half Over/Under 94.5Actual: Under 94.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under

no forecast

@ 2.20

1st half Over/Under 97.5Actual: Under 97.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.07

Under

no forecast

@ 1.88

1st half Spread Melbourne United -5Actual: New Zealand Breakers +5

MELB -5

no forecast

@ 2.04

NEW +5

no forecast

@ 1.82

1st half Spread Melbourne United -3Actual: Melbourne United -3

MELB -3

no forecast

@ 1.73

NEW +3

no forecast

@ 2.11

1st half Spread Melbourne United -6Actual: New Zealand Breakers +6

MELB -6

no forecast

@ 2.12

NEW +6

no forecast

@ 1.72

1st half Over/Under 92.5Actual: Under 92.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.45

Under

no forecast

@ 2.60

1st half Over/Under 99.5Actual: Under 99.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.20

Under

no forecast

@ 1.62

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Melbourne United (regulation)

MELB

no forecast

@ 1.50

Draw

no forecast

@ 18.00

NEW

no forecast

@ 3.16

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46.5
Last 30 (30)	20.9	22.0	42.9	-1.1	40%	33%
Last 30 at home (14)	20.9	23.3	44.1	-2.4	36%	29%
Last 30 away (16)	21.0	20.9	41.9	+0.1	44%	38%
Last 10 (10)	25.7	21.6	47.3	+4.1	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	27.4	21.2	48.6	+6.2	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	22.0	20.0	42.0	+2.0	67%	33%
vs Similar (10)	17.9	21.5	39.4	-3.6	30%	10%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	22.5	22.6	45.2	-0.1	41%	47%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46.5
Last 30 (30)	23.2	23.5	46.7	-0.3	40%	57%
Last 30 at home (12)	24.1	25.2	49.3	-1.2	42%	67%
Last 30 away (18)	22.7	22.3	45.0	+0.3	39%	50%
Last 10 (10)	21.5	20.8	42.3	+0.7	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	22.0	19.4	41.4	+2.6	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	21.6	25.0	46.6	-3.4	22%	56%
vs Similar (15)	23.2	24.1	47.3	-0.9	33%	60%
vs Weaker (6)	25.8	19.8	45.7	+6.0	83%	50%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46.5
Last 30 (30)	22.7	20.7	43.4	+2.0	60%	43%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.1	19.8	41.9	+2.3	57%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	23.2	21.5	44.8	+1.8	62%	50%
Last 10 (10)	23.7	22.8	46.5	+0.9	60%	70%
Last 5 (5)	26.6	23.8	50.4	+2.8	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	21.0	21.3	42.3	-0.3	33%	33%
vs Similar (10)	23.8	19.5	43.3	+4.3	80%	30%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	22.4	21.3	43.6	+1.1	53%	53%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46.5
Last 30 (30)	23.2	22.8	46.0	+0.4	43%	43%
Last 30 at home (12)	22.7	21.2	43.8	+1.5	50%	25%
Last 30 away (18)	23.5	23.9	47.4	-0.4	39%	56%
Last 10 (10)	23.8	24.0	47.8	-0.2	20%	50%
Last 5 (5)	24.6	29.2	53.8	-4.6	0%	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	23.4	23.7	47.1	-0.2	33%	56%
vs Similar (15)	22.9	22.3	45.3	+0.6	47%	40%
vs Weaker (6)	23.3	22.7	46.0	+0.7	50%	33%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 91.5
Last 30 (30)	43.6	42.7	86.3	+0.9	50%	40%
Last 30 at home (14)	42.9	43.1	86.0	-0.1	43%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	44.2	42.4	86.6	+1.9	56%	38%
Last 10 (10)	49.4	44.4	93.8	+5.0	60%	70%
Last 5 (5)	54.0	45.0	99.0	+9.0	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	43.0	41.3	84.3	+1.7	67%	33%
vs Similar (10)	41.7	41.0	82.7	+0.7	60%	30%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	44.9	43.9	88.8	+0.9	41%	47%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 91.5
Last 30 (30)	46.4	46.3	92.7	+0.1	57%	60%
Last 30 at home (12)	46.8	46.4	93.2	+0.3	67%	75%
Last 30 away (18)	46.2	46.2	92.4	-0.1	50%	50%
Last 10 (10)	45.3	44.8	90.1	+0.5	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	46.6	48.6	95.2	-2.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	45.0	48.7	93.7	-3.7	44%	56%
vs Similar (15)	46.1	46.4	92.5	-0.3	47%	67%
vs Weaker (6)	49.2	42.5	91.7	+6.7	100%	50%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

MELB win + total 190.5

🔒 Pro

NEW win + total 190.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: MELB leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: NEW leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (MELB:NEW ): MELB wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Melbourne United under 104.5	77.3%	1.43	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	-	+12.4pp	Won
Melbourne United under 106.5	82.7%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+12.3pp	Won
Melbourne United under 108.5	87.2%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+11.9pp	Won
Melbourne United under 102.5	71.0%	1.55	Bet365 1.57	Betano 1.53	-	-	-	+11.6pp	Won
Under 198	74.3%	1.48	Bet365 1.48	-	-	-	-	+11.0pp	Won
Under 199	76.2%	1.43	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	-	+10.8pp	Won
Melbourne United under 103.5	74.3%	1.44	Betano 1.45	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
Under 198.5	74.8%	1.44	Bet365 1.45	Betano 1.42	-	-	-	+10.0pp	Won
Melbourne United under 107.5	85.1%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+9.8pp	Won
Melbourne United under 105.5	80.1%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+9.7pp	Won
Under 201.5	80.0%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+9.7pp	Won
Melbourne United under 109.5	89.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+9.6pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +13.5	74.6%	1.38	Betano 1.42	BetVictor 1.42	Marathon Bet 1.36	Bet365 1.33	-	+9.5pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers +12.5	71.7%	1.44	BetVictor 1.48	Betano 1.47	Marathon Bet 1.43	Bet365 1.40	-	+9.3pp	Lost
Under 206.5	87.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 101.5	84.6%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+8.4pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 97.5	74.3%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 99.5	79.9%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 103.5	88.4%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +14.5	77.3%	1.32	Betano 1.37	Marathon Bet 1.31	Bet365 1.29	-	-	+7.6pp	Lost
Under 211.5	91.9%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +15.5	79.8%	1.29	Betano 1.32	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Lost
Under 196.5	70.9%	1.46	Betano 1.47	Marathon Bet 1.46	Bet365 1.45	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
Under 197.5	72.9%	1.42	Marathon Bet 1.44	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.40	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Under 196	70.3%	1.48	Bet365 1.48	Marathon Bet 1.47	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Under 197	72.3%	1.44	Marathon Bet 1.46	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Under 216.5	95.1%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 105.5	91.5%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +17.5	84.2%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 107.5	93.9%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Under 199.5	76.6%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Under 204.5	84.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 102.5	86.6%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Under 209.5	90.1%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Won
Under 214.5	94.0%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +22.5	92.1%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 108.5	94.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 96.5	71.2%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 98.5	77.2%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 106.5	92.8%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +15	79.3%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	+5.2pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 104.5	90.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +13	73.8%	1.37	Marathon Bet 1.38	Bet365 1.36	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers +14	76.7%	1.31	Marathon Bet 1.32	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers +12	70.8%	1.44	Marathon Bet 1.46	Bet365 1.42	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Lost
Melbourne United over 81.5	93.3%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 100.5	82.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 78.5	88.2%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers over 80.5	83.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Lost
Melbourne United over 80.5	94.5%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
Melbourne United over 83.5	90.4%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Overtime: no	95.3%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	-
Melbourne United +17.5	97.3%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Won
Melbourne United +12.5	94.0%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 82.5	78.6%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Lost
Melbourne United over 82.5	92.0%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Over 164.5	91.9%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Melbourne United over 85.5	86.7%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Melbourne United over 87.5	82.0%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 79.5	86.2%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Lost
Melbourne United over 84.5	88.7%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 84.5	72.4%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers over 81.5	81.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Lost
Melbourne United over 86.5	84.5%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Melbourne United over 89.5	76.4%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Melbourne United +1.5	72.8%	1.28	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	-	+1.0pp	Won
Over 166.5	89.9%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+0.9pp	Won
Melbourne United +7.5	87.4%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+0.8pp	Won
Over 169.5	86.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers over 83.5	75.6%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Lost
Melbourne United over 88.5	79.3%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Won
Melbourne United over 91.5	70.0%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	-0.5pp	Won
Over 174.5	78.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-1.0pp	Lost
Melbourne United +2.5	76.1%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-1.6pp	Won
Melbourne United over 90.5	73.3%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	-2.0pp	Won
Over 171.5	83.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-2.2pp	Lost
Over 176.5	74.5%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-3.8pp	Lost
Melbourne United win	70.4%	1.27	Marathon Bet 1.30	1xBet 1.30	WilliamHill 1.29	Betano 1.27	Pinnacle 1.27	-4.9pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 96.7 points a game scored

🏀🏀54%

🏀🏀🏀26%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 54% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 26% of the points

🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 93.7 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	46.0	26.1	56.7%	56.4%	52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.7	8.3	32.3%	34.3%	24.9
🏀 Free throws	26.2	19.6	74.8%	74.1%	19.6

They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 90.6 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 93.7 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.2	21.3	55.8%	56.4%	42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.3	11.7	41.3%	34.3%	35.1
🏀 Free throws	18.8	12.9	68.6%	74.1%	12.9

They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.0	22.2	54.1%	56.4%	44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	33.9	10.5	31.0%	34.3%	31.5
🏀 Free throws	20.3	16.1	79.3%	74.1%	16.1

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.5	20.8	55.5%	56.4%	41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.6	10.7	33.9%	34.3%	32.1
🏀 Free throws	19.9	14.0	70.4%	74.1%	14.0

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.4	23.4	52.6%	56.4%	46.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.1	8.9	30.7%	34.3%	26.8
🏀 Free throws	21.9	16.6	76.1%	74.1%	16.6

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.1	24.7	55.9%	56.4%	49.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.9	9.6	35.5%	34.3%	28.7
🏀 Free throws	20.2	14.3	70.8%	74.1%	14.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.2	22.2	52.7%	56.4%	44.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.5	9.2	32.3%	34.3%	27.6
🏀 Free throws	23.5	17.7	75.4%	74.1%	17.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.2	22.3	56.8%	56.4%	44.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.1	11.0	34.3%	34.3%	33.0
🏀 Free throws	20.6	15.5	75.2%	74.1%	15.5

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Melbourne United

WWLLWWLLWL

New Zealand Breakers

LLLWLWWLLW

League position

+4.9

Net rating

+3.3

100.1

Offensive rating

102.8

95.2

Defensive rating

99.5

53.8%

Effective FG%

58.4%

50.7%

Opp. effective FG%

53.3%

13.3%

Turnover %

14.1%

0.37

Free-throw rate

0.28

32.3%

3-point %

41.3%

55.8%

Assist %

63.3%

50%

Form (last 10/10)

40%

Profile

■ Melbourne United ■ New Zealand Breakers

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Melbourne United wins

New Zealand Breakers wins

Date	Game	Score
30/01/26	New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United	97-95
19/10/25	Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers	104-88
21/09/25	Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers	114-82
13/01/25	New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United	89-91
05/12/24	New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United	70-97
04/11/24	Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers	79-113
11/02/24	Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers	94-81
12/01/24	New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United	81-82
22/10/23	Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers	97-88
28/01/23	New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United	80-74

Melbourne Unitedlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
31/10/26	A	Cairns Taipans	113-97
25/10/26	H	Sydney	105-95
23/10/26	A	Perth	102-103
18/10/26	H	Illawarra Hawks	89-91
10/10/26	A	South East Melbourne	104-99
07/10/26	A	Adelaide	96-91
03/10/26	H	Cairns Taipans	95-107
01/10/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	82-84
24/09/26	A	South East Melbourne	86-61
19/09/26	H	Adelaide	95-97

New Zealand Breakerslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
30/10/26	H	Adelaide	101-108
25/10/26	A	Cairns Taipans	84-86
18/10/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	92-98
14/10/26	A	Sydney	102-101
10/10/26	A	Perth	84-100
04/10/26	A	Adelaide	88-72
30/09/26	H	Cairns Taipans	98-75
26/09/26	A	Perth	93-97
22/09/26	A	Brisbane Bullets	85-88
20/09/26	H	Illawarra Hawks	95-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United

NBL 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLWW	50%
Home	LLLW	25%
Away	LWWLW	67%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	10	4	6
Win %	50%	25%	67%
Points / game	96.7	96.0	97.2
Allowed / game	92.5	97.5	89.2
Point differential	+4.2	-1.5	+8.0
Avg total	189.2	193.5	186.3
Over 190	60%	75%	50%
Win by 10+	30%	25%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (6)	0% (2)	50% (4)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

New Zealand Breakers

NBL 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLLL	40%
Home	WWL	67%
Away	WLWLL	29%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	10	3	7
Win %	40%	67%	29%
Points / game	92.2	98.0	89.7
Allowed / game	90.6	88.0	91.7
Point differential	+1.6	+10.0	-2.0
Avg total	182.8	186.0	181.4
Over 190	20%	33%	14%
Win by 10+	30%	67%	14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	25% (4)	-	25% (4)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Sydney	10	7	3	70%	97.9	88.1	+9.8
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	70%	95.6	90.8	+4.8
3	Perth	9	5	4	56%	93.2	96.7	-3.4
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	55%	92.2	96.5	-4.4
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	50%	96.7	92.5	+4.2
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	50%	93.8	96.7	-2.9
7	Adelaide	11	5	6	45%	91.0	93.7	-2.7
8	South East Melbourne	10	4	6	40%	96.9	94.3	+2.6
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	40%	92.2	90.6	+1.6
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	27%	96.1	104.5	-8.4

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Melbourne United	28	15	27	24	94
New Zealand Breakers	19	20	16	19	74

← all games of the day

Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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