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Adelaide vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 06:00
Final 72-88
19-23 23-25 15-12 15-28
Position#5
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game92.2
Allowed / game94.0
Adelaide
Australia
vs
New Zealand Breakers 🏆
Australia
Position#9
Record2-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game92.8
Allowed / game85.2
AustraliaNBLRound 3· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers
14 Feb 2027
ADEL v NEW
upcoming
04 Oct 2026
ADEL72
NEW 88
22 Feb 2026
ADEL107
NEW 111
14 Feb 2026
ADEL92
NEW 89
26 Jan 2025
ADEL94
NEW 78
14 Dec 2024
ADEL111
NEW 94
18 Feb 2024
ADEL76
NEW 70
08 Jan 2023
ADEL83
NEW 85
28 Oct 2022
ADEL70
NEW 99
12 Dec 2021
ADEL98
NEW 85
27 Feb 2021
ADEL62
NEW 106
27 Jan 2021
ADEL88
NEW 78
22 Jan 2021
ADEL94
NEW 91
29 Dec 2019
ADEL87
NEW 96
24 Nov 2019
ADEL117
NEW 100
04 Jan 2019
ADEL96
NEW 104
30 Dec 2018
ADEL109
NEW 98
29 Dec 2017
ADEL88
NEW 85
10 Dec 2017
ADEL95
NEW 92
04 Feb 2017
ADEL87
NEW 88
10 Dec 2016
ADEL102
NEW 92
03 Feb 2016
ADEL84
NEW 106
07 Oct 2015
ADEL90
NEW 71
28 Feb 2015
ADEL83
NEW 94
04 Jan 2015
ADEL74
NEW 81
02 Nov 2014
ADEL93
NEW 86
23 Feb 2014
ADEL96
NEW 92
04 Jan 2014
ADEL99
NEW 73
20 Jan 2013
ADEL66
NEW 84
28 Dec 2012
ADEL66
NEW 71
10 Mar 2012
ADEL76
NEW 91
11 Dec 2011
ADEL73
NEW 86
08 Jan 2011
ADEL85
NEW 90
12 Nov 2010
ADEL78
NEW 82
12 Dec 2009
ADEL85
NEW 92
03 Oct 2009
ADEL80
NEW 76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
New Zealand Breakers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
W
108-96
108
96
+12
H17/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
68-112
68
112
-44
A21/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
91-89
91
89
+2
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
93-106
93
106
-13
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
92-91
92
91
+1
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
101-113 OT
101
113
-12
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
97-95
97
95
+2
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#3
L
97-98
97
98
-1
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
83-69
83
69
+14
H27/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
L
92-114
92
114
-22
A02/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-17
31-28
24-19
25-32
23-31
16-28
17-31
12-22
25-30
28-22
15-25
23-12
31-24
22-28
17-21
23-33
22-24
24-29
26-21
20-17
31-29
24-27
21-13
19-26
25-23
24-25
26-22
22-25
20-30
28-18
29-22
20-28
32-17
20-17
15-17
16-18
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
190.5Avg total
92.2Scored
98.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)92.294.0186.2-1.850%
Season at home (1)83.069.0152.0+14.0100%
Season away (3)95.3102.3197.7-7.033%
Last 10 (10)92.298.3190.5-6.150%
Last 5 (5)94.097.8191.8-3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)92.299.1191.3-6.943%
vs Similar ◀ (10)93.390.8184.1+2.560%
vs Weaker (6)95.387.5182.8+7.867%
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
89-91
89
91
-2
A01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
83-114
83
114
-31
H05/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
106-95
106
95
+11
H07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
89-92
89
92
-3
A14/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
115-84
115
84
+31
H19/02
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
111-107
111
107
+4
A22/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
95-81
95
81
+14
H20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
85-88
85
88
-3
A22/09
NBL
Perth
#3
L
93-97
93
97
-4
A26/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
98-75
98
75
+23
H30/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-25
25-28
24-25
18-13
20-17
32-35
15-34
16-28
33-25
28-25
23-30
22-15
29-16
21-23
21-20
18-33
24-24
37-20
27-22
27-18
28-25
19-29
34-28
30-25
28-24
26-23
22-14
19-20
26-19
18-18
19-28
22-23
26-22
25-25
22-29
20-21
19-18
23-17
30-25
26-15
188.8Avg total
96.4Scored
92.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)92.885.2178.0+7.550%
Season at home (2)96.578.0174.5+18.5100%
Season away (2)89.092.5181.5-3.50%
Last 10 (10)96.492.4188.8+4.050%
Last 5 (5)96.489.6186.0+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)85.798.1183.8-12.422%
vs Similar ◀ (10)96.790.2186.9+6.560%
vs Weaker (11)97.188.5185.5+8.655%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: +0.7+0.7
AdelaideNew Zealand Breakers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
W
59-45
59
45
+14
H17/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A21/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#3
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H27/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
100.1Avg total
48.9Scored
51.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.547.794.2-1.153%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.646.493.1+0.250%-
Last 30 away (16)46.448.895.2-2.356%-
Last 10 (10)48.951.2100.1-2.350%-
Last 5 (5)47.850.298.0-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)48.650.198.7-1.450%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)44.844.789.5+0.150%-
vs Weaker (6)44.547.091.5-2.567%-
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
47-53
47
53
-6
A01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
D
52-52
52
52
+0
H05/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
61-50
61
50
+11
H07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
50-39
50
39
+11
A14/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
61-44
61
44
+17
H19/02
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A22/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A22/09
NBL
Perth
#3
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A26/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H30/09
NBL
96.7Avg total
50.9Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.045.793.6+2.363%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.845.594.3+3.269%-
Last 30 away (17)47.445.893.1+1.659%-
Last 10 (10)50.945.896.7+5.170%-
Last 5 (5)47.644.091.6+3.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)43.349.492.8-6.133%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)48.644.192.7+4.570%-
vs Weaker (11)51.244.095.2+7.282%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.820.7
53.4%
56.0%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.210.9
33.9%
34.4%32.7
🏀 Free throws21.717.1
78.8%
73.7%17.1
They take 71.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 94.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.425.7
57.9%
56.0%51.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.59.6
37.6%
34.4%28.8
🏀 Free throws19.814.5
73.2%
73.7%14.5
They take 69.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
LWLWLWLWLW
New Zealand Breakers
WLLWWWLWLL
#5
League position
#9
-6.8
Net rating
+4.1
99.7
Offensive rating
104.2
106.5
Defensive rating
100.1
52.2%
Effective FG%
57.4%
57.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
12.3%
Turnover %
11.7%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.28
33.9%
3-point %
37.6%
72.2%
Assist %
53.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence99.7 · 104.2Defence106.5 · 100.1Shooting52.2% · 57.4%3-point %33.9% · 37.6%Ball care12.3% · 11.7%Free throws0.31 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Adelaide   ■ New Zealand Breakers
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Adelaide wins
3
New Zealand Breakers wins
DateGameScore
22/02/26Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers107-111
14/02/26Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers92-89
23/01/26New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide110-112 OT
06/11/25New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide79-83
26/01/25Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers94-78
14/12/24Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers111-94
02/11/24New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide109-82
18/02/24Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers76-70
30/11/23New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide96-83
26/10/23New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide85-97
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
27/09/26HCairns Taipans83-69
24/09/26APerth97-98
19/09/26AMelbourne United97-95
05/04/26ASydney101-113 OT
01/04/26HSydney92-91
29/03/26ASydney93-106
27/03/26HSydney91-89
21/03/26ASydney68-112
17/03/26HSouth East Melbourne108-96
New Zealand Breakerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/09/26HCairns Taipans98-75
26/09/26APerth93-97
22/09/26ABrisbane Bullets85-88
20/09/26HIllawarra Hawks95-81
22/02/26AAdelaide111-107
19/02/26HCairns Taipans115-84
14/02/26AAdelaide89-92
07/02/26HIllawarra Hawks106-95
05/02/26HSouth East Melbourne83-114
01/02/26ATasmania JackJumpers89-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %50%100%33%
Points / game92.283.095.3
Allowed / game94.069.0102.3
Point differential-1.8+14.0-7.0
Avg total186.2152.0197.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
New Zealand Breakers
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLW50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game92.896.589.0
Allowed / game85.278.092.5
Point differential+7.5+18.5-3.5
Avg total178.0174.5181.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)-0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney330100%108.389.3+19.0
2 Tasmania JackJumpers43175%94.091.2+2.8
3 Perth43175%91.594.5-3.0
4 New Zealand Breakers42250%92.885.2+7.5
5 Adelaide42250%92.294.0-1.8
6 Brisbane Bullets42250%92.095.5-3.5
7 South East Melbourne52340%90.689.8+0.8
8 Cairns Taipans52340%86.894.8-8.0
9 Melbourne United41325%89.587.2+2.2
10 Illawarra Hawks51420%97.2104.8-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide1923151572
New Zealand Breakers2325122888
← all games of the day
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