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Adelaide vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 91-96
21-31 17-25 21-20 32-20
Position#5
Record2-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game92.8
vs
Position#3
Record1-3
FormLLWLL
Points / game89.5
Allowed / game87.2
AustraliaNBLRound 4· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide v Melbourne United
12 Nov 2026
ADEL v MELB
upcoming
07 Oct 2026
ADEL91
MELB96
12 Dec 2025
ADEL114
MELB105
04 Jan 2025
ADEL100
MELB81
06 Jan 2024
ADEL100
MELB96
01 Oct 2023
ADEL74
MELB82
21 Jan 2023
ADEL87
MELB94
30 Jan 2022
ADEL88
MELB83
22 Jan 2022
ADEL78
MELB97
25 Feb 2021
ADEL73
MELB82
15 Jan 2021
ADEL65
MELB89
11 Jan 2020
ADEL100
MELB86
10 Feb 2019
ADEL87
MELB89
28 Jan 2019
ADEL91
MELB114
25 Mar 2018
ADEL90
MELB81
18 Mar 2018
ADEL110
MELB95
14 Oct 2017
ADEL79
MELB99
05 Oct 2017
ADEL97
MELB99
12 Jan 2017
ADEL100
MELB73
14 Oct 2016
ADEL87
MELB98
22 Jan 2016
ADEL90
MELB81
23 Dec 2015
ADEL91
MELB81
12 Dec 2014
ADEL90
MELB77
15 Nov 2014
ADEL79
MELB118
01 Apr 2014
ADEL102
MELB63
27 Mar 2014
ADEL101
MELB85
23 Mar 2014
ADEL99
MELB94
08 Nov 2013
ADEL90
MELB87
10 Feb 2013
ADEL71
MELB84
07 Oct 2012
ADEL84
MELB61
19 Nov 2011
ADEL95
MELB89
18 Mar 2011
ADEL76
MELB79
18 Feb 2011
ADEL83
MELB86
05 Dec 2009
ADEL84
MELB87
21 Oct 2009
ADEL70
MELB81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
68-112
68
112
-44
46avg 87
A21/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
91-89
91
89
+2
83avg 87
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
93-106
93
106
-13
92avg 87
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
92-91
92
91
+1
88avg 87
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
101-113 OT
101
113
-12
94avg 87
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
97-95
97
95
+2
93avg 87
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#6
L
97-98
97
98
-1
90avg 87
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
W
83-69
83
69
+14
74avg 87
H27/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 87
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 87
H04/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-31
16-28
17-31
12-22
25-30
28-22
15-25
23-12
31-24
22-28
17-21
23-33
22-24
24-29
26-21
20-17
31-29
24-27
21-13
19-26
25-23
24-25
26-22
22-25
20-30
28-18
29-22
20-28
32-17
20-17
15-17
16-18
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
186.1Avg total
88.6Scored
97.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)88.292.8181.0-4.640%
Season at home (2)77.578.5156.0-1.050%
Season away (3)95.3102.3197.7-7.033%
Last 10 (10)88.697.5186.1-8.940%
Last 5 (5)88.292.8181.0-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)92.299.1191.3-6.943%
vs Similar (9)89.891.3181.1-1.644%
vs Weaker (7)93.684.9178.4+8.771%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#3
L
76-87
76
87
-11
51avg 81
H07/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
89-85
89
85
+4
72avg 81
A12/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
91-100
91
100
-9
74avg 81
H15/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
95-91
95
91
+4
88avg 81
H19/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
82-68
82
68
+14
81avg 81
H05/03
NBL
Perth
#5
L
77-95
77
95
-18
54avg 81
A07/03
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
95-97
95
97
-2
85avg 81
H19/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
W
86-61
86
61
+25
78avg 81
A24/09
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#1
L
82-84
82
84
-2
69avg 81
A01/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
L
95-107
95
107
-12
82avg 81
H03/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-29
16-12
14-26
23-20
19-19
21-27
16-14
33-25
24-29
21-25
18-23
28-23
33-23
19-19
16-30
27-19
15-17
25-14
16-24
26-13
19-22
34-22
10-23
14-28
23-25
25-24
22-26
25-22
16-14
29-21
24-22
17-4
14-23
21-29
19-16
28-16
14-18
32-29
35-25
14-35
174.3Avg total
86.8Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)89.587.2176.8+2.225%
Season at home (2)95.0102.0197.0-7.00%
Season away (2)84.072.5156.5+11.550%
Last 10 (10)86.887.5174.3-0.740%
Last 5 (5)87.088.8175.8-1.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)90.794.7185.3-4.00%
vs Similar (11)86.889.1175.9-2.345%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)90.689.4180.0+1.250%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: +3.0+3.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: +3.0+3.0
AdelaideMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A21/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#6
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H27/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
98.7Avg total
47.2Scored
51.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.047.793.6-1.750%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.446.491.9-1.043%-
Last 30 away (16)46.448.895.2-2.356%-
Last 10 (10)47.251.598.7-4.340%-
Last 5 (5)45.248.693.8-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)48.650.198.7-1.450%-
vs Similar (9)42.145.988.0-3.833%-
vs Weaker (7)45.645.190.7+0.471%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#3
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H07/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A12/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
45-54
45
54
-9
H15/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H19/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H05/03
NBL
Perth
#5
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A07/03
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H19/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
W
45-35
45
35
+10
A24/09
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#1
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A01/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
L
46-47
46
47
-1
H03/10
NBL
88.4Avg total
44.3Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.146.492.5-0.347%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.643.590.1+3.160%-
Last 30 away (15)45.649.394.9-3.733%-
Last 10 (10)44.344.188.4+0.240%-
Last 5 (5)45.445.490.8+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)49.351.7101.0-2.333%-
vs Similar (11)45.047.492.4-2.445%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)46.244.891.0+1.550%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 87.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.920.5
52.7%
56.4%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.410.4
32.1%
34.2%31.2
🏀 Free throws20.015.4
77.0%
74.0%15.4
They take 71.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.521.7
49.9%
56.4%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.1
29.4%
34.2%27.3
🏀 Free throws20.215.0
74.3%
74.0%15.0
They take 74.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
LLWLWLWLWL
Melbourne United
LLWLLWWLWL
#5
League position
#3
-10.2
Net rating
-1.5
97.0
Offensive rating
91.6
107.2
Defensive rating
93.1
50.6%
Effective FG%
47.4%
58.8%
Opp. effective FG%
48.5%
11.4%
Turnover %
12.1%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.27
32.1%
3-point %
29.4%
72.5%
Assist %
53.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence97.0 · 91.6Defence107.2 · 93.1Shooting50.6% · 47.4%3-point %32.1% · 29.4%Ball care11.4% · 12.1%Free throws0.28 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Adelaide   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide wins
5
Melbourne United wins
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
27/09/26HCairns Taipans83-69
24/09/26APerth97-98
19/09/26AMelbourne United97-95
05/04/26ASydney101-113 OT
01/04/26HSydney92-91
29/03/26ASydney93-106
27/03/26HSydney91-89
21/03/26ASydney68-112
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/10/26HCairns Taipans95-107
01/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers82-84
24/09/26ASouth East Melbourne86-61
19/09/26HAdelaide95-97
07/03/26APerth77-95
05/03/26HTasmania JackJumpers82-68
19/02/26HSouth East Melbourne95-91
15/02/26HIllawarra Hawks91-100
12/02/26ACairns Taipans89-85
07/02/26HAdelaide76-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeWL50%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game88.277.595.3
Allowed / game92.878.5102.3
Point differential-4.6-1.0-7.0
Avg total181.0156.0197.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Melbourne United
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeLL0%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%0%50%
Points / game89.595.084.0
Allowed / game87.2102.072.5
Point differential+2.2-7.0+11.5
Avg total176.8197.0156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney330100%108.389.3+19.0
2 Tasmania JackJumpers43175%94.091.2+2.8
3 Perth43175%91.594.5-3.0
4 New Zealand Breakers53260%91.882.6+9.2
5 Brisbane Bullets42250%92.095.5-3.5
6 South East Melbourne52340%90.689.8+0.8
7 Adelaide52340%88.292.8-4.6
8 Cairns Taipans52340%86.894.8-8.0
9 Melbourne United41325%89.587.2+2.2
10 Illawarra Hawks51420%97.2104.8-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide2117213291
Melbourne United3125202096
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