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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 18 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 06:00
Final 89-91
27-21 16-35 22-22 24-13
Position#3
Record3-3
FormWLLWW
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game89.8
Melbourne United
Australia
vs
Illawarra Hawks 🏆
Australia
Position#10
Record1-6
FormLWLLL
Points / game99.7
Allowed / game108.0
AustraliaNBLRound 5· John Cain Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
91-100
91
100
-9
74avg 81
H15/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
95-91
95
91
+4
88avg 81
H19/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
82-68
82
68
+14
81avg 81
H05/03
NBL
Perth
#5
L
77-95
77
95
-18
54avg 81
A07/03
NBL
Adelaide
#4
L
95-97
95
97
-2
85avg 81
H19/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
W
86-61
86
61
+25
78avg 81
A24/09
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#1
L
82-84
82
84
-2
69avg 81
A01/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
L
95-107
95
107
-12
82avg 81
H03/10
NBL
Adelaide
#4
W
96-91
96
91
+5
93avg 81
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 81
A10/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-29
21-25
18-23
28-23
33-23
19-19
16-30
27-19
15-17
25-14
16-24
26-13
19-22
34-22
10-23
14-28
23-25
25-24
22-26
25-22
16-14
29-21
24-22
17-4
14-23
21-29
19-16
28-16
14-18
32-29
35-25
14-35
31-21
25-17
20-21
20-32
17-30
28-23
29-21
30-25
179.6Avg total
90.3Scored
89.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)93.089.8182.8+3.250%
Season at home (2)95.0102.0197.0-7.00%
Season away (4)92.083.8175.8+8.275%
Last 10 (10)90.389.3179.6+1.050%
Last 5 (5)92.688.4181.0+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)90.094.5184.5-4.50%
vs Similar (10)86.991.9178.8-5.040%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)91.387.4178.7+3.861%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
94-120
94
120
-26
83avg 88
H13/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
100-91
100
91
+9
98avg 88
A15/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
103-70
103
70
+33
101avg 88
A18/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
81-95
81
95
-14
71avg 88
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
L
95-103
95
103
-8
82avg 88
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#2
L
100-121
100
121
-21
87avg 88
A27/09
NBL
Adelaide
#4
W
114-92
114
92
+22
117avg 88
H02/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
L
96-113
96
113
-17
87avg 88
A04/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#1
L
112-122
112
122
-10
102avg 88
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
L
100-110
100
110
-10
94avg 88
H11/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-34
27-24
23-26
25-36
29-24
25-21
23-18
23-28
26-18
28-16
27-17
22-19
24-28
23-26
14-22
20-19
18-25
24-25
24-23
29-30
27-31
18-34
26-33
29-23
35-21
30-14
27-32
22-25
23-23
18-36
32-26
23-28
22-32
25-35
26-24
39-31
27-28
23-29
27-29
23-24
203.2Avg total
99.5Scored
103.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)99.7108.0207.7-8.314%
Season at home (3)108.7108.0216.7+0.733%
Season away (4)93.0108.0201.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)99.5103.7203.2-4.230%
Last 5 (5)104.4111.6216.0-7.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)95.2105.0200.2-9.821%
vs Similar (7)97.495.9193.3+1.643%
vs Weaker (4)96.282.8179.0+13.575%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -0.8-0.8
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -0.8-0.8
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
45-54
45
54
-9
H15/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H19/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H05/03
NBL
Perth
#5
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A07/03
NBL
Adelaide
#4
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H19/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
W
45-35
45
35
+10
A24/09
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#1
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A01/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
L
46-47
46
47
-1
H03/10
NBL
Adelaide
#4
W
56-38
56
38
+18
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A10/10
NBL
91.0Avg total
46.5Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.445.792.1+0.650%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.442.789.1+3.664%-
Last 30 away (16)46.448.494.8-2.038%-
Last 10 (10)46.544.591.0+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)45.445.090.4+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)49.050.599.5-1.550%-
vs Similar (10)45.048.693.6-3.640%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)46.843.690.4+3.256%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
46-58
46
58
-12
H13/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A15/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
54-34
54
34
+20
A18/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#2
L
45-65
45
65
-20
A27/09
NBL
Adelaide
#4
W
65-35
65
35
+30
H02/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#8
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A04/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#1
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#7
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H11/10
NBL
101.5Avg total
49.1Scored
52.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.250.297.4-3.030%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.049.596.5-2.527%-
Last 30 away (15)47.450.898.2-3.433%-
Last 10 (10)49.152.4101.5-3.330%-
Last 5 (5)49.656.6106.2-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)46.552.098.5-5.526%-
vs Similar (7)49.948.398.1+1.643%-
vs Weaker (4)45.844.890.5+1.025%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 90.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.222.6
53.6%
56.4%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.1
30.7%
34.2%27.3
🏀 Free throws23.517.8
75.7%
74.0%17.8
They take 71.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 99.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.225.7
55.6%
56.4%51.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.711.3
36.8%
34.2%33.9
🏀 Free throws19.214.2
74.0%
74.0%14.2
They take 76.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WWLLWLLWWL
Illawarra Hawks
LLLWLLLWWL
#3
League position
#10
+1.1
Net rating
-4.4
95.6
Offensive rating
103.4
94.5
Defensive rating
107.8
50.5%
Effective FG%
55.5%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
55.6%
12.9%
Turnover %
12.1%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.25
30.7%
3-point %
36.8%
54.9%
Assist %
57.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence95.6 · 103.4Defence94.5 · 107.8Shooting50.5% · 55.5%3-point %30.7% · 36.8%Ball care12.9% · 12.1%Free throws0.33 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Melbourne United wins
6
Illawarra Hawks wins
DateGameScore
15/02/26Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks91-100
18/12/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks97-75
21/11/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United102-105
05/11/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United107-93
23/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United114-104
19/03/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks71-80
16/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United77-83
12/03/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks100-102
08/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United88-96
18/01/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United117-95
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/10/26ASouth East Melbourne104-99
07/10/26AAdelaide96-91
03/10/26HCairns Taipans95-107
01/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers82-84
24/09/26ASouth East Melbourne86-61
19/09/26HAdelaide95-97
07/03/26APerth77-95
05/03/26HTasmania JackJumpers82-68
19/02/26HSouth East Melbourne95-91
15/02/26HIllawarra Hawks91-100
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/10/26HCairns Taipans100-110
09/10/26HTasmania JackJumpers112-122
04/10/26ASouth East Melbourne96-113
02/10/26HAdelaide114-92
27/09/26ASydney100-121
25/09/26ABrisbane Bullets95-103
20/09/26ANew Zealand Breakers81-95
18/02/26ATasmania JackJumpers103-70
15/02/26AMelbourne United100-91
13/02/26HSydney94-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW50%
HomeLL0%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%0%75%
Points / game93.095.092.0
Allowed / game89.8102.083.8
Point differential+3.2-7.0+8.2
Avg total182.8197.0175.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)0% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL14%
HomeWLL33%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %14%33%0%
Points / game99.7108.793.0
Allowed / game108.0108.0108.0
Point differential-8.3+0.7-15.0
Avg total207.7216.7201.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tasmania JackJumpers75271%97.794.7+3.0
2 Sydney64267%101.089.2+11.8
3 Perth64267%91.294.0-2.8
4 Melbourne United63350%93.089.8+3.2
5 New Zealand Breakers84450%92.189.0+3.1
6 Brisbane Bullets63350%95.797.3-1.7
7 Adelaide84450%88.890.8-2.0
8 Cairns Taipans84450%90.597.5-7.0
9 South East Melbourne83538%96.593.9+2.6
10 Illawarra Hawks71614%99.7108.0-8.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United2716222489
Illawarra Hawks2135221391
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