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Michigan State vs Northwestern Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 07 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 53-49
20-25 33-24
Position#154
Record17-12
FormWWLLL
Points / game74.4
Allowed / game66.5
Michigan State 🏆
USA
vs
Northwestern
USA
Position#86
Record20-9
FormLWWWL
Points / game74.4
Allowed / game69.6
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Michigan State v Northwestern
08 Jan 2026
MICH76
NORT66
06 Mar 2024
MICH53
NORT49
04 Dec 2022
MICH63
NORT70
15 Jan 2022
MICH62
NORT64
29 Jan 2020
MICH79
NORT50
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Northwestern winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wisconsin
#117
L
66-81
66
81
-15
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H31/01
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H03/02
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
L
56-59
56
59
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois
#27
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H10/02
NCAA
Penn State
#216
W
80-72
80
72
+8
A14/02
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
73-63
73
63
+10
A18/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
L
71-78
71
78
-7
H21/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#123
L
57-60
57
60
-3
H25/02
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
74-80
74
80
-6
A03/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-43
32-38
33-35
48-27
31-27
32-27
32-27
24-32
44-41
44-39
45-31
35-41
39-37
34-26
33-45
38-33
32-22
25-38
35-38
39-42
139.8Avg total
70.9Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)74.466.5140.9+7.959%
Season at home (20)76.863.9140.7+12.970%
Season away (9)69.172.2141.3-3.133%
Last 10 (10)70.968.9139.8+2.050%
Last 5 (5)71.070.6141.6+0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)74.076.4150.4-2.420%
vs Similar ◀ (16)71.370.1141.4+1.244%
vs Weaker (9)82.158.1140.2+24.0100%
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NorthwesternUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio State
#123
W
83-58
83
58
+25
H28/01
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
96-105 OT
96
105
-9
A31/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
L
66-75 OT
66
75
-9
A03/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#62
W
80-68
80
68
+12
H08/02
NCAA
Penn State
#216
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H11/02
NCAA
Rutgers
#241
L
60-63
60
63
-3
A15/02
NCAA
Indiana
#153
W
76-72
76
72
+4
A18/02
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
76-62
76
62
+14
H23/02
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
68-61
68
61
+7
A29/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H02/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-30
42-28
39-47
42-34
27-27
34-34
47-31
33-37
29-27
39-36
34-27
26-36
34-26
42-46
37-34
39-28
29-24
39-37
37-36
43-51
146.7Avg total
75.3Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)74.469.6144.0+4.869%
Season at home (17)78.868.9147.7+9.988%
Season away (12)68.270.7138.8-2.542%
Last 10 (10)75.371.4146.7+3.960%
Last 5 (5)72.069.0141.0+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)82.689.6172.2-7.040%
vs Similar ◀ (13)72.469.6142.0+2.862%
vs Weaker (12)72.261.2133.4+11.183%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +1.2+1.21st half: +4.5+4.52nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: +1.2+1.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +1.2+1.21st half: +4.5+4.52nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: +1.2+1.2
Michigan StateNorthwestern
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wisconsin
#117
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#347
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H31/01
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H03/02
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois
#27
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H10/02
NCAA
Penn State
#216
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A14/02
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A18/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
L
33-45
33
45
-12
H21/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#123
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A03/03
NCAA
70.4Avg total
35.8Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.130.366.4+5.963%-
Last 30 at home (20)35.927.163.0+8.870%-
Last 30 away (10)36.636.573.1+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)35.834.670.4+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)36.834.671.4+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.436.068.4-3.620%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)34.932.867.7+2.262%-
vs Weaker (9)40.322.763.0+17.789%-
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NorthwesternLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio State
#123
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H28/01
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A31/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
D
27-27
27
27
+0
A03/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#62
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H08/02
NCAA
Penn State
#216
W
29-27
29
27
+2
H11/02
NCAA
Rutgers
#241
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A15/02
NCAA
Indiana
#153
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A18/02
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H23/02
NCAA
Maryland
#215
W
29-24
29
24
+5
A29/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H02/03
NCAA
66.3Avg total
35.4Scored
30.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.532.066.5+2.563%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.432.569.8+4.982%-
Last 30 away (13)30.731.462.1-0.738%-
Last 10 (10)35.430.966.3+4.580%-
Last 5 (5)34.229.463.6+4.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)31.840.071.8-8.220%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)34.230.564.7+3.669%-
vs Weaker (12)35.930.266.2+5.775%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Michigan State wins
4
Northwestern wins
DateGameScore
08/01/24Northwestern v Michigan State88-74
05/12/22Michigan State v Northwestern63-70
15/01/22Michigan State v Northwestern62-64
02/01/22Northwestern v Michigan State67-73
21/12/20Northwestern v Michigan State79-65
29/01/20Michigan State v Northwestern79-50
19/12/19Northwestern v Michigan State72-77
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/03/24APurdue74-80
25/02/24HOhio State57-60
21/02/24HIowa71-78
18/02/24AMichigan73-63
14/02/24APenn State80-72
10/02/24HIllinois88-80
07/02/24AMinnesota56-59
03/02/24HMaryland63-54
31/01/24HMichigan81-62
27/01/24AWisconsin66-81
Northwesternlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/24HIowa80-87
29/02/24AMaryland68-61
23/02/24HMichigan76-62
18/02/24AIndiana76-72
15/02/24ARutgers60-63
11/02/24HPenn State68-63
08/02/24HNebraska80-68
03/02/24AMinnesota66-75 OT
31/01/24APurdue96-105 OT
28/01/24HOhio State83-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL59%
HomeWWWLL70%
AwayLLWWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games29209
Win %59%70%33%
Points / game74.476.869.1
Allowed / game66.563.972.2
Point differential+7.9+12.8-3.1
Avg total140.9140.7141.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%60%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %3%5%0%
Northwestern
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL69%
HomeWWWWL88%
AwayLLLWW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %69%88%42%
Points / game74.478.868.2
Allowed / game69.668.970.7
Point differential+4.8+9.9-2.5
Avg total144.0147.7138.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%53%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (10)86% (7)67% (3)
Overtime %14%12%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Purdue3027390%84.470.2+14.2
2 Illinois3022873%84.373.3+11.0
3 Nebraska3021970%76.569.3+7.2
4 Northwestern2920969%74.469.6+4.8
5 Oregon29191066%76.272.6+3.6
6 Minnesota29181162%76.671.0+5.6
7 Wisconsin29181162%74.469.6+4.8
8 Iowa30181260%83.878.9+5.0
9 Ohio State30181260%74.569.6+4.9
10 Michigan State29171259%74.466.5+7.9
11 Indiana29161355%73.275.1-1.9
12 Washington30161453%81.077.3+3.7
13 Rutgers29151452%66.366.0+0.4
14 Maryland30151550%69.665.0+4.6
15 UCLA29141548%66.265.5+0.7
16 Penn State30141647%75.674.5+1.1
17 USC29121741%74.474.8-0.4
18 Michigan3082227%73.679.2-5.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan State203353
Northwestern252449
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