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Minas vs Botafogo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 18 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 95-88
28-23 24-17 14-22 29-26
Position#3
Record12-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.4
Allowed / game76.4
Minas 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#16
Record3-13
FormLLLLL
Points / game70.4
Allowed / game82.1
BrazilNBB· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2025-26
Meetings · Minas v Botafogo
29 Dec 2026
MINA v BOTA
upcoming
18 Dec 2025
MINA95
BOTA88
09 Apr 2025
MINA97
BOTA59
08 Jan 2024
MINA89
BOTA52
14 Oct 2019
MINA84
BOTA85
04 Dec 2018
MINA85
BOTA77
25 Nov 2017
MINA74
BOTA56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Botafogo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
108-74
108
74
+34
112avg 75
A08/11
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
78-80
78
80
-2
75avg 75
A10/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
86-81
86
81
+5
82avg 75
H15/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
94-63
94
63
+31
93avg 75
H18/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
77-81
77
81
-4
68avg 75
H21/11
NBB
Bauru
#10
W
94-88
94
88
+6
90avg 75
H23/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
W
88-72
88
72
+16
97avg 75
A03/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
74-71
74
71
+3
66avg 75
A05/12
NBB
Boca Juniors
#2
W
80-61
80
61
+19
73avg 75
A12/12
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#11
W
77-74
77
74
+3
69avg 75
A13/12
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-19
26-20
30-18
25-17
19-20
20-21
22-14
17-25
19-22
25-28
22-17
20-14
28-18
25-24
23-13
18-8
23-21
20-20
14-21
20-19
24-14
30-18
23-33
17-23
22-14
19-12
27-23
20-23
14-21
24-15
21-20
15-15
15-19
19-18
19-14
27-10
24-19
16-19
14-20
23-16
160.1Avg total
85.6Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)85.476.4161.7+9.086%
Season at home (8)85.977.6163.5+8.288%
Season away (6)84.774.7159.3+10.083%
Last 10 (10)85.674.5160.1+11.180%
Last 5 (5)82.673.2155.8+9.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)83.065.5148.5+17.5100%
vs Similar (9)78.278.2156.4+0.044%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)82.972.4155.3+10.6100%
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Pato
#17
W
82-75
82
75
+7
79avg 64
H07/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
61-91
61
91
-30
44avg 64
A10/11
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
71-73
71
73
-2
65avg 64
A13/11
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
70-82
70
82
-12
65avg 64
H18/11
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
74-61
74
61
+13
71avg 64
H20/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
70-79
70
79
-9
59avg 64
A02/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
77-101
77
101
-24
67avg 64
A04/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
75-80
75
80
-5
68avg 64
H08/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
61-84
61
84
-23
50avg 64
H13/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
65-89
65
89
-24
45avg 64
A16/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-16
26-14
16-16
20-29
14-26
9-22
18-24
20-19
25-19
15-18
17-14
14-22
22-25
19-15
12-19
17-23
19-23
13-7
24-17
18-14
15-23
20-21
22-16
13-19
19-28
20-28
21-22
17-23
17-20
20-20
22-19
16-21
15-21
18-20
16-26
12-17
19-18
18-22
14-19
14-30
152.1Avg total
70.6Scored
81.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)70.482.1152.6-11.719%
Season at home (8)74.978.4153.2-3.538%
Season away (8)66.085.9151.9-19.90%
Last 10 (10)70.681.5152.1-10.920%
Last 5 (5)69.686.6156.2-17.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)70.684.9155.5-14.317%
vs Similar (7)76.076.6152.6-0.643%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -5.6-5.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -5.6-5.6
MinasBotafogo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A08/11
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A10/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
44-50
44
50
-6
H15/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H18/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H21/11
NBB
Bauru
#10
W
54-32
54
32
+22
H23/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
W
41-26
41
26
+15
A03/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A05/12
NBB
Boca Juniors
#2
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A12/12
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#11
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A13/12
Champions League Americas
82.1Avg total
43.9Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.237.277.5+3.063%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.237.278.4+4.075%-
Last 30 away (14)39.137.376.4+1.950%-
Last 10 (10)43.938.282.1+5.770%-
Last 5 (5)41.433.875.2+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)36.537.073.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (9)40.441.081.4-0.644%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)40.535.576.0+5.174%-
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pato
#17
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H07/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A10/11
NBB
Bauru
#10
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A13/11
NBB
Brasilia
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H18/11
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H20/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A02/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
39-56
39
56
-17
A04/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H08/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H13/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A16/12
NBB
76.9Avg total
36.3Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.842.178.9-5.433%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.740.680.3-0.947%-
Last 30 away (15)33.843.777.5-9.920%-
Last 10 (10)36.340.676.9-4.340%-
Last 5 (5)36.244.280.4-8.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)36.243.479.6-7.226%-
vs Similar (7)38.638.076.6+0.657%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 84.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.220.5
56.6%
52.2%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.39.6
32.8%
32.5%28.8
🏀 Free throws21.414.9
69.6%
72.8%14.9
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 69.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.518.3
47.5%
52.2%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.76.8
28.7%
32.5%20.4
🏀 Free throws19.412.6
64.9%
72.8%12.6
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minas
WWWWWLWWLW
Botafogo
LLLLLWLLLW
#3
League position
#16
+14.7
Net rating
-14.8
109.3
Offensive rating
93.1
94.6
Defensive rating
107.9
53.3%
Effective FG%
45.8%
45.4%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
17.5%
Turnover %
19.9%
29.2%
Off. rebound %
28.6%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
32.8%
3-point %
28.7%
65.4%
Assist %
57.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence109.3 · 93.1Defence94.6 · 107.9Shooting53.3% · 45.8%3-point %32.8% · 28.7%Ball care17.5% · 19.9%Off. rebounds29.2% · 28.6%Free throws0.33 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)80% · 20%
■ Minas   ■ Botafogo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Minas wins
2
Botafogo wins
DateGameScore
09/04/25Minas v Botafogo97-59
02/12/24Botafogo v Minas68-95
08/01/24Minas v Botafogo89-52
21/10/23Botafogo v Minas76-96
28/01/20Botafogo v Minas84-86
14/10/19Minas v Botafogo84-85
06/03/19Botafogo v Minas79-62
04/12/18Minas v Botafogo85-77
20/02/18Botafogo v Minas70-76
25/11/17Minas v Botafogo74-56
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25AAguada77-74
12/12/25ABoca Juniors80-61
05/12/25AUniao Corinthians74-71
03/12/25ACaxias do Sul88-72
23/11/25HBauru94-88
21/11/25HPinheiros77-81
18/11/25HPaulistano94-63
15/11/25HOsasco86-81
10/11/25ABrasilia78-80
08/11/25ARio Claro108-74
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/25ACruzeiro65-89
13/12/25HUniao Corinthians61-84
08/12/25HCaxias do Sul75-80
04/12/25APaulistano77-101
02/12/25AOsasco70-79
20/11/25HRio Claro74-61
18/11/25HBrasilia70-82
13/11/25ABauru71-73
10/11/25AFranca61-91
07/11/25HPato82-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minas
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW86%
HomeWWWLW88%
AwayWWLWW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1486
Win %86%88%83%
Points / game85.485.984.7
Allowed / game76.477.674.7
Point differential+9.0+8.2+10.0
Avg total161.7163.5159.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)75% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %7%12%0%
Botafogo
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL19%
HomeWLWLL38%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %19%38%0%
Points / game70.474.966.0
Allowed / game82.178.485.9
Point differential-11.7-3.5-19.9
Avg total152.6153.2151.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1513287%87.273.2+14.0
2 Pinheiros1412286%84.575.0+9.5
3 Minas1412286%85.476.4+9.0
4 Franca1411379%86.973.7+13.2
5 Brasilia1612475%81.972.6+9.3
6 Corinthians Paulista1511473%82.074.9+7.1
7 Mogi159660%79.167.3+11.9
8 Sao Jose159660%79.676.6+3.0
9 Unifacisa158753%80.578.7+1.7
10 Paulistano179853%79.675.5+4.1
11 Bauru168850%73.975.1-1.2
12 Caxias do Sul147750%72.476.8-4.4
13 Uniao Corinthians157847%76.681.5-4.9
14 Cearense1441029%81.687.9-6.3
15 Pato1541127%72.180.1-8.0
16 Cruzeiro1541127%77.285.3-8.1
17 Osasco1741324%75.885.9-10.1
18 Rio Claro1741324%77.589.3-11.8
19 Botafogo1631319%70.482.1-11.7
20 Vasco151147%67.379.7-12.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minas2824142995
Botafogo2317222688
← all games of the day
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