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Missouri State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 02 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 76-67 (OT)
28-35 37-30 11-2
Position#177
Record11-11
FormWWLWL
Points / game65.8
Allowed / game63.0
vs
Position#306
Record10-13
FormWWWLW
Points / game69.0
Allowed / game72.3
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Missouri State v Valparaiso
01 Jan 2025
MISS72
VALP73
17 Feb 2024
MISS82
VALP74
01 Feb 2023
MISS76
VALP67
04 Mar 2022
MISS67
VALP58
12 Feb 2022
MISS84
VALP66
05 Mar 2021
MISS66
VALP55
07 Mar 2020
MISS82
VALP89
23 Jan 2020
MISS67
VALP60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#248
W
79-67
79
67
+12
A29/12
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H01/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
85-62
85
62
+23
H05/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
61-74
61
74
-13
A07/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
L
66-76 OT
66
76
-10
A12/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
W
64-62
64
62
+2
H15/01
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
65-62 OT
65
62
+3
A19/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
57-61
57
61
-4
H21/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
63-59
63
59
+4
H25/01
NCAA
Murray State
#182
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A28/01
NCAA
1H
2H
40-29
39-38
30-23
22-26
40-25
45-37
35-37
26-37
34-30
27-31
35-31
29-31
21-34
35-22
25-30
32-31
29-30
34-29
35-37
36-37
130.9Avg total
66.3Scored
64.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)65.863.0128.8+2.750%
Season at home (10)65.857.2123.0+8.670%
Season away (12)65.867.9133.7-2.233%
Last 10 (10)66.364.6130.9+1.760%
Last 5 (5)64.063.6127.6+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)57.362.8120.2-5.550%
vs Similar (10)65.265.5130.7-0.330%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)75.967.1143.0+8.883%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#24
L
63-68
63
68
-5
A30/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
50-68
50
68
-18
H01/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
67-69
67
69
-2
H05/01
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A07/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
59-74
59
74
-15
H11/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
76-69
76
69
+7
A14/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H18/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
71-51
71
51
+20
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
66-77
66
77
-11
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H29/01
NCAA
1H
2H
26-24
37-44
24-36
26-32
38-41
29-28
24-49
42-39
30-38
29-36
34-28
42-41
36-33
40-33
33-24
38-27
28-45
38-32
43-28
38-41
137.4Avg total
67.5Scored
69.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)69.072.3141.3-3.343%
Season at home (13)71.368.1139.4+3.262%
Season away (10)66.077.8143.8-11.820%
Last 10 (10)67.569.9137.4-2.440%
Last 5 (5)74.066.4140.4+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)62.174.1136.3-12.07%
vs Similar (9)72.171.2143.3+0.967%
vs Weaker (6)80.063.7143.7+16.3100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: -3.0-3.02nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +0.6+0.6
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: -3.0-3.02nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +0.6+0.6
Missouri StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#248
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A29/12
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H01/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
40-25
40
25
+15
H05/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A07/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
34-30
34
30
+4
A12/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H15/01
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
21-34
21
34
-13
A19/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
25-30
25
30
-5
H21/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H25/01
NCAA
Murray State
#182
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A28/01
NCAA
63.0Avg total
32.4Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.731.865.5+1.947%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.928.763.6+6.164%-
Last 30 away (16)32.834.567.2-1.831%-
Last 10 (10)32.430.663.0+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)29.032.461.4-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)26.230.857.0-4.733%-
vs Similar (10)33.531.565.0+2.030%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)35.731.867.5+3.867%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#24
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A30/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H01/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H05/01
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
24-49
24
49
-25
A07/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
30-38
30
38
-8
H11/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
34-28
34
28
+6
A14/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H18/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
33-24
33
24
+9
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
28-45
28
45
-17
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H29/01
NCAA
66.2Avg total
31.6Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.834.466.2-2.650%-
Last 30 at home (17)35.431.266.6+4.165%-
Last 30 away (13)27.238.565.8-11.331%-
Last 10 (10)31.634.666.2-3.050%-
Last 5 (5)34.831.666.4+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)27.337.364.7-10.013%-
vs Similar (9)33.333.266.6+0.178%-
vs Weaker (6)40.828.869.7+12.0100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Missouri State wins
2
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/23AMurray State71-74
25/01/23HIllinois (Chi.)63-59
21/01/23HSouthern Illinois57-61
19/01/23ADrake65-62 OT
15/01/23HIndiana State64-62
12/01/23AIllinois State66-76 OT
07/01/23ABelmont61-74
05/01/23HEvansville85-62
01/01/23HDrake52-49
29/12/22ANorthern Iowa79-67
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/01/23HEvansville81-69
26/01/23ANorthern Iowa66-77
22/01/23AIllinois State71-51
18/01/23HIllinois (Chi.)76-66
14/01/23AEvansville76-69
11/01/23HBelmont59-74
07/01/23ABradley66-88
05/01/23HNorthern Iowa67-69
01/01/23HIndiana State50-68
30/12/22ADrake63-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL50%
HomeWWWLW70%
AwayWLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221012
Win %50%70%33%
Points / game65.865.865.8
Allowed / game63.057.267.9
Point differential+2.7+8.6-2.2
Avg total128.8123.0133.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%40%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)60% (5)20% (5)
Overtime %9%0%17%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW43%
HomeLLLWW62%
AwayLLWWL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %43%62%20%
Points / game69.071.366.0
Allowed / game72.368.177.8
Point differential-3.3+3.2-11.8
Avg total141.3139.4143.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%38%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %9%15%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty2318578%74.757.9+16.8
2 Sam Houston St.2217577%76.458.8+17.6
3 Kennesaw State2317674%75.668.3+7.3
4 Middle Tenn. St.2213959%69.866.7+3.0
5 Louisiana Tech22121055%74.468.4+6.0
6 UTEP21111052%68.365.7+2.7
7 Delaware23121152%70.370.2+0.1
8 Western Kentucky22111150%72.769.6+3.1
9 Missouri State22111150%65.863.0+2.7
10 Florida International22111150%72.474.3-1.9
11 Jacksonville State23101343%69.069.9-0.9
12 New Mexico State2171433%73.771.4+2.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake2317674%74.063.7+10.4
2 Southern Illinois2317674%67.161.2+5.9
3 Belmont2316770%74.170.4+3.7
4 Bradley2315865%71.962.7+9.2
5 Indiana State2314961%77.670.1+7.5
6 Northern Iowa22121055%70.566.9+3.6
7 Murray State22121055%71.069.6+1.4
8 Valparaiso23101343%69.072.3-3.3
9 Illinois State2391439%66.268.6-2.3
10 Illinois (Chi.)2391439%67.070.7-3.7
11 Evansville2341917%62.375.4-13.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Missouri State28371176
Valparaiso3530267
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