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Missouri State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 12 Feb 2022
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 84-66
41-36 43-30
Position#49
Record18-8
FormLWWLW
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game66.9
vs
Position#242
Record11-13
FormWLLWL
Points / game71.8
Allowed / game70.9
USANCAA
Other2021-22
Meetings · Missouri State v Valparaiso
01 Jan 2025
MISS72
VALP73
17 Feb 2024
MISS82
VALP74
01 Feb 2023
MISS76
VALP67
04 Mar 2022
MISS67
VALP58
12 Feb 2022
MISS84
VALP66
05 Mar 2021
MISS66
VALP55
07 Mar 2020
MISS82
VALP89
23 Jan 2020
MISS67
VALP60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#110
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H08/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H13/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#242
W
74-57
74
57
+17
A15/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
W
88-63
88
63
+25
H20/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
79-69
79
69
+10
A22/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
72-76
72
76
-4
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
72-58
72
58
+14
H30/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
69-54
69
54
+15
A03/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
62-71
62
71
-9
H06/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
W
66-62
66
62
+4
A10/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-33
50-52
36-34
45-42
34-26
40-31
44-34
44-29
35-33
44-36
29-41
43-35
28-21
44-37
29-24
40-30
29-28
33-43
29-30
37-32
141.8Avg total
74.7Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)77.066.9143.9+10.169%
Season at home (15)79.368.1147.4+11.167%
Season away (11)73.965.2139.1+8.773%
Last 10 (10)74.767.1141.8+7.670%
Last 5 (5)68.264.2132.4+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)69.071.0140.0-2.00%
vs Similar (9)68.365.0133.3+3.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)79.168.7147.8+10.468%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#110
L
65-92
65
92
-27
A06/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H09/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
74-81 OT
74
81
-7
A12/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
57-74
57
74
-17
H15/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H20/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
W
75-73
75
73
+2
A22/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
56-71
56
71
-15
H27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
W
79-72 OT
79
72
+7
H06/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
L
75-78 OT
75
78
-3
A10/02
NCAA
1H
2H
22-43
43-49
22-32
38-31
30-22
25-33
26-34
31-40
34-39
38-33
35-40
40-33
22-37
34-34
28-43
27-34
33-34
27-26
37-33
33-37
144.0Avg total
67.9Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)71.870.9142.7+1.046%
Season at home (14)74.168.5142.6+5.650%
Season away (10)68.774.2142.9-5.540%
Last 10 (10)67.976.1144.0-8.230%
Last 5 (5)68.074.2142.2-6.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)62.269.1131.3-6.911%
vs Similar (16)67.671.2138.8-3.644%
vs Weaker (4)83.062.5145.5+20.5100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: -6.8-6.82nd half2nd half: +5.3+5.32nd half: -1.4-1.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: -6.8-6.82nd half2nd half: +5.3+5.32nd half: -1.4-1.4
Missouri StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#110
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H08/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H13/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#242
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A15/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H20/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A22/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
29-41
29
41
-12
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#349
W
28-21
28
21
+7
H30/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
29-24
29
24
+5
A03/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H06/02
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A10/02
NCAA
63.1Avg total
32.7Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.030.866.8+5.273%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.930.266.1+5.775%-
Last 30 away (14)36.131.667.7+4.671%-
Last 10 (10)32.730.463.1+2.380%-
Last 5 (5)28.828.857.6+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)37.040.077.0-3.00%-
vs Similar (9)31.029.860.8+1.267%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)37.530.968.4+6.679%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Iowa
#110
L
22-43
22
43
-21
A06/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
22-32
22
32
-10
H09/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
30-22
30
22
+8
A12/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H15/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H20/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A22/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
L
22-37
22
37
-15
H27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#291
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H06/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A10/02
NCAA
64.6Avg total
28.9Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.532.763.2-2.233%-
Last 30 at home (17)31.931.163.0+0.835%-
Last 30 away (13)28.734.763.4-6.031%-
Last 10 (10)28.935.764.6-6.820%-
Last 5 (5)31.037.468.4-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)27.031.458.4-4.433%-
vs Similar (16)29.634.864.4-5.119%-
vs Weaker (4)38.830.068.8+8.875%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Missouri State wins
2
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/22ADrake66-62
06/02/22HLoyola Chicago62-71
03/02/22ASouthern Illinois69-54
30/01/22HEvansville72-58
26/01/22AIndiana State72-76
22/01/22ALoyola Chicago79-69
20/01/22HIllinois State88-63
15/01/22AValparaiso74-57
13/01/22HSouthern Illinois81-76
08/01/22HNorthern Iowa84-85
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/22AIllinois State75-78 OT
06/02/22HIndiana State79-72 OT
30/01/22ASouthern Illinois55-77
27/01/22HBradley56-71
22/01/22AIndiana State75-73
20/01/22HNorthern Iowa83-80 OT
15/01/22HMissouri State57-74
12/01/22ALoyola Chicago74-81 OT
09/01/22HSouthern Illinois60-63
06/01/22ANorthern Iowa65-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW69%
HomeLWWWL67%
AwayWWLWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261511
Win %69%67%73%
Points / game77.079.373.9
Allowed / game66.968.165.2
Point differential+10.1+11.1+8.7
Avg total143.9147.4139.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%47%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)40% (5)50% (4)
Overtime %4%0%9%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL46%
HomeLLWLW50%
AwayLLWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241410
Win %46%50%40%
Points / game71.874.168.7
Allowed / game70.968.574.2
Point differential+1.0+5.6-5.5
Avg total142.7142.6142.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%29%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)33% (6)67% (3)
Overtime %25%29%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 New Mexico State2320387%74.866.2+8.7
2 Louisiana Tech2418675%78.369.2+9.1
3 Liberty2518772%73.461.0+12.4
4 Middle Tenn. St.2316770%74.667.2+7.4
5 Missouri State2618869%77.066.9+10.1
6 Jacksonville State2416867%74.667.7+7.0
7 Delaware2416867%75.370.9+4.5
8 UTEP2314961%68.765.2+3.4
9 Sam Houston St.26151158%70.163.8+6.3
10 Western Kentucky24131154%76.469.7+6.7
11 Kennesaw State24111346%74.969.5+5.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State2523292%80.962.9+18.0
2 Belmont2621581%80.669.0+11.6
3 Drake2517868%75.067.1+7.8
4 Northern Iowa2314961%73.768.5+5.2
5 Bradley25141156%71.665.2+6.5
6 Southern Illinois25121348%62.960.6+2.3
7 Valparaiso24111346%71.870.9+1.0
8 Indiana State25111444%71.370.8+0.6
9 Illinois State26111542%76.376.0+0.3
10 Illinois (Chi.)2291341%70.872.9-2.1
11 Evansville2361726%59.568.8-9.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri State414384
Valparaiso363066
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