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Missouri State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 82-74
38-41 44-33
Position#198
Record14-12
FormWWLLL
Points / game71.8
Allowed / game71.3
vs
Position#355
Record6-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game74.8
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Missouri State v Valparaiso
01 Jan 2025
MISS72
VALP73
17 Feb 2024
MISS82
VALP74
01 Feb 2023
MISS76
VALP67
04 Mar 2022
MISS67
VALP58
12 Feb 2022
MISS84
VALP66
05 Mar 2021
MISS66
VALP55
07 Mar 2020
MISS82
VALP89
23 Jan 2020
MISS67
VALP60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#225
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A14/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A17/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
L
60-69
60
69
-9
H20/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H25/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
81-70
81
70
+11
A27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
W
76-75 OT
76
75
+1
A01/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
W
87-80
87
80
+7
H03/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
65-72
65
72
-7
A08/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
72-82
72
82
-10
A15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
36-35
38-29
30-44
36-44
33-42
27-27
29-42
36-23
40-37
41-33
31-42
32-21
36-37
51-43
32-30
33-42
36-35
35-38
37-35
35-47
148.8Avg total
73.5Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)71.871.3143.2+0.554%
Season at home (13)74.869.4144.2+5.569%
Season away (13)68.873.3142.1-4.538%
Last 10 (10)73.575.3148.8-1.850%
Last 5 (5)74.276.4150.6-2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)68.575.2143.8-6.850%
vs Similar (16)71.068.3139.3+2.756%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)76.367.0143.3+9.367%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#240
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A14/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
75-78
75
78
-3
A18/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H20/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
69-75
69
75
-6
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
70-81
70
81
-11
H27/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
70-81
70
81
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H03/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
61-101
61
101
-40
A08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
78-96
78
96
-18
H10/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
67-86
67
86
-19
H15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
28-20
31-30
38-40
37-38
34-39
50-38
34-29
35-46
37-40
33-41
30-41
40-40
32-30
30-33
36-50
25-51
27-54
51-42
26-38
41-48
148.3Avg total
69.5Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)68.074.8142.8-6.823%
Season at home (15)69.573.5142.9-4.033%
Season away (11)65.976.6142.5-10.79%
Last 10 (10)69.578.8148.3-9.320%
Last 5 (5)67.685.4153.0-17.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)67.175.8142.8-8.720%
vs Similar (3)66.376.3142.7-10.00%
vs Weaker (2)78.063.5141.5+14.550%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -3.9-3.91st half: -5.9-5.92nd half2nd half: +1.7+1.72nd half: -3.4-3.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -3.9-3.91st half: -5.9-5.92nd half2nd half: +1.7+1.72nd half: -3.4-3.4
Missouri StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#225
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A14/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
30-44
30
44
-14
A17/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H20/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
29-42
29
42
-13
H25/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A27/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H03/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A08/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#296
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A15/02
NCAA
71.9Avg total
34.0Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.133.067.1+1.063%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.532.567.9+3.067%-
Last 30 away (15)32.733.666.3-0.960%-
Last 10 (10)34.037.971.9-3.950%-
Last 5 (5)34.435.870.2-1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)30.537.267.8-6.825%-
vs Similar (16)35.632.668.2+2.975%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)34.828.563.3+6.383%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#240
W
28-20
28
20
+8
A14/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A18/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H20/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A25/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H27/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H03/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
36-50
36
50
-14
A08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
27-54
27
54
-27
H10/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H15/02
NCAA
70.3Avg total
32.2Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.036.468.4-4.427%-
Last 30 at home (16)32.035.167.1-3.131%-
Last 30 away (14)32.037.969.9-5.921%-
Last 10 (10)32.238.170.3-5.930%-
Last 5 (5)30.242.672.8-12.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)31.237.568.7-6.324%-
vs Similar (3)31.037.368.3-6.30%-
vs Weaker (2)43.522.065.5+21.5100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Missouri State wins
2
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/24AMurray State72-82
10/02/24HIndiana State71-73
08/02/24ANorthern Iowa65-72
03/02/24HBelmont87-80
01/02/24ASouthern Illinois76-75 OT
27/01/24AValparaiso81-70
25/01/24HDrake83-80 OT
20/01/24HIllinois State60-69
17/01/24AIndiana State66-88
14/01/24AEvansville74-64
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/24HNorthern Iowa67-86
10/02/24HBelmont78-96
08/02/24AIndiana State61-101
03/02/24HEvansville62-63
01/02/24ADrake70-81
27/01/24HMissouri State70-81
25/01/24ASouthern Illinois69-75
20/01/24HIllinois (Chi.)84-77
18/01/24AEvansville75-78
14/01/24AIllinois State59-50

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL54%
HomeLLWWL69%
AwayLWWLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %54%69%38%
Points / game71.874.868.8
Allowed / game71.369.473.3
Point differential+0.5+5.5-4.5
Avg total143.2144.2142.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%38%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %12%8%15%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL23%
HomeWLLLL33%
AwayWLLLL9%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261511
Win %23%33%9%
Points / game68.069.565.9
Allowed / game74.873.576.6
Point differential-6.8-4.0-10.7
Avg total142.8142.9142.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%13%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)33% (3)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Western Kentucky2518772%80.774.4+6.2
2 Louisiana Tech2517868%75.163.4+11.8
3 Liberty2516964%75.463.9+11.4
4 Delaware26161062%75.269.8+5.4
5 Sam Houston St.25141156%71.270.8+0.4
6 Missouri State26141254%71.871.3+0.5
7 UTEP25131252%73.769.3+4.4
8 Kennesaw State27141352%83.580.4+3.1
9 Jacksonville State26121446%69.964.9+5.0
10 New Mexico State25111444%68.971.8-2.9
11 Middle Tenn. St.25101540%64.168.1-4.0
12 Florida International2581732%73.876.6-2.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State2622485%84.972.2+12.7
2 Drake2621581%79.468.8+10.6
3 Bradley2618869%75.868.1+7.7
4 Southern Illinois26161062%72.967.0+5.9
5 Evansville26151158%73.072.7+0.4
6 Belmont26151158%77.777.5+0.1
7 Northern Iowa26141254%72.771.0+1.7
8 Illinois State26121446%66.067.6-1.6
9 Murray State26111542%70.768.1+2.7
10 Illinois (Chi.)26101638%69.368.7+0.6
11 Valparaiso2662023%68.074.8-6.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri State384482
Valparaiso413374
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