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Murcia vs Basket Zaragoza Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 92-86
Projected total 178.4
Scheduled
Position#10
Record4-4
FormLWLWW
Points / game89.4
Allowed / game91.1
Vs
71%
29%
■ MUR 71%■ ZAR 29%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.4/10
Around normal
5.8/10
Above normal
Position#7
Record5-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game92.8
Allowed / game89.1
SpainACBRound 9· Palacio de Deportes de Murcia
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Murcia v Basket Zaragoza
21 Nov 2026
MUR v ZAR
upcoming
18 Jan 2026
MUR90
ZAR84
19 Oct 2024
MUR88
ZAR74
01 May 2024
MUR82
ZAR77
16 Apr 2023
MUR79
ZAR74
14 May 2022
MUR72
ZAR77
23 May 2021
MUR91
ZAR68
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Murcia host Basket Zaragoza in the Liga ACB. Pythia makes Murcia the favourite at 71% and projects 92-86, about 178 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Murcia are 4-4 this season (89.4 scored, 91.1 allowed a game), form LWLWW; Basket Zaragoza are 5-3 this season (92.8 scored, 89.1 allowed a game), form WLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murcia win
71.5%fair 1.40
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Basket Zaragoza win
28.5%fair 3.51
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MurciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMurcia
Date
Competition
Varese
#37
W
85-58
85
58
+27
89avg 81
H07/10
Champions League
Tenerife
#3
L
77-90
77
90
-13
64avg 81
H11/10
ACB
Bamberg
#53
W
86-67
86
67
+19
80avg 81
A14/10
Champions League
Valencia
#2
L
93-116
93
116
-23
78avg 81
A18/10
ACB
Leyma Coruna
#14
W
88-81
88
81
+7
74avg 81
H24/10
ACB
Peristeri
#3
L
72-80
72
80
-8
60avg 81
H27/10
Champions League
Forca Lleida
#18
W
125-98
125
98
+27
117avg 81
H31/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
71-90
71
90
-19
no box
A08/11
ACB
Bamberg
#53
W
98-66
98
66
+32
no box
H11/11
Champions League
Bilbao
#9
W
84-76
84
76
+8
no box
A15/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-8
23-14
27-20
19-16
13-16
20-28
24-22
20-24
15-17
19-15
32-23
20-12
14-25
22-33
24-28
33-30
18-17
19-23
26-18
25-23
15-16
17-17
18-27
22-20
34-21
26-19
25-25
40-33
20-22
19-25
16-16
16-27
29-19
21-18
15-11
33-18
25-16
15-21
25-19
19-20
170.1Avg total
87.9Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.491.1180.5-1.850%
Season at home (4)97.590.8188.2+6.875%
Season away (4)81.291.5172.8-10.225%
Last 10 (10)87.982.2170.1+5.760%
Last 5 (5)90.082.0172.0+8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)85.297.5182.8-12.225%
vs Similar (7)87.191.3178.4-4.143%
vs Weaker (19)91.479.8171.3+11.684%
This opponent (Basket Zaragoza) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket ZaragozaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormZaragoza
Date
Competition
Valencia
#1
L
86-98
86
98
-12
75avg 79
H26/05
ACB
Breogan
#11
W
95-94
95
94
+1
95avg 79
A29/05
ACB
Tenerife
#3
W
81-80
81
80
+1
80avg 79
A27/09
ACB
Valencia
#2
L
82-97
82
97
-15
72avg 79
H04/10
ACB
Leyma Coruna
#14
W
92-71
92
71
+21
90avg 79
A10/10
ACB
Forca Lleida
#18
W
109-98
109
98
+11
103avg 79
H18/10
ACB
Barcelona
#4
L
81-99
81
99
-18
74avg 79
A24/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#11
W
107-78
107
78
+29
108avg 79
H31/10
ACB
Unicaja
#8
W
96-91
96
91
+5
no box
H08/11
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#12
L
94-99
94
99
-5
no box
A14/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-27
26-23
15-21
22-27
24-26
20-21
23-23
28-24
18-18
26-20
24-27
13-15
22-21
17-15
28-30
15-31
23-17
29-11
15-22
25-21
22-23
38-20
24-31
25-24
21-24
19-24
17-24
24-27
23-21
25-19
30-20
29-18
17-20
26-18
24-26
29-27
19-20
25-23
27-27
23-29
182.8Avg total
92.3Scored
90.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)92.889.1181.9+3.662%
Season at home (4)98.591.0189.5+7.575%
Season away (4)87.087.2174.2-0.250%
Last 10 (10)92.390.5182.8+1.860%
Last 5 (5)97.493.0190.4+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)83.696.6180.2-13.08%
vs Similar (14)87.990.9178.7-3.043%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)94.079.0173.0+15.075%
This opponent (Murcia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1351%1402%1453%1505%1557%1609%16511%17012%17512%18010%1858%1906%1954%2003%2052%2101%2151%2200%225
0%1352%1455%1559%16512%17510%1856%1953%2051%2150%225
Pythia expects about 178 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%).
Over/Under 177
Over 177
52.6%
Under 177
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 182
Over 182
40.4%
Under 182
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 187
Over 187
29.2%
Under 187
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Murcia total 89
Over 89
63.6%
Under 89
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murcia total 93
Over 93
47.8%
Under 93
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murcia total 97
Over 97
32.4%
Under 97
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Basket Zaragoza total 85
Over 85
53.0%
Under 85
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Basket Zaragoza total 89
Over 89
37.3%
Under 89
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Basket Zaragoza total 93
Over 93
23.8%
Under 93
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-271%-241%-212%-183%-154%-125%-97%-67%-36%+010%+310%+610%+98%+127%+156%+184%+213%+242%+271%+301%+331%+36
1%-242%-184%-127%-66%+010%+68%+126%+183%+241%+301%+36
Margin from Murcia's side (positive = Murcia win). Pythia's expected margin is +6.5; Murcia win by 1+ in 63% of simulations.
Spread Murcia -3
MUR -3
63.9%
ZAR +3
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
MUR
No market prices yet.
ZAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Murcia 0
MUR 0
71.5%
ZAR 0
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
MUR
No market prices yet.
ZAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Murcia +3
MUR +3
78.8%
ZAR -3
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
MUR
No market prices yet.
ZAR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: +5.7+5.7Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: -1.0-1.0
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: +5.7+5.7Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: -1.0-1.0
MurciaBasket Zaragoza
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Varese
#37
W
39-22
39
22
+17
H07/10
Champions League
Tenerife
#3
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H11/10
ACB
Bamberg
#53
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A14/10
Champions League
Valencia
#2
L
36-58
36
58
-22
A18/10
ACB
Leyma Coruna
#14
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H24/10
ACB
Peristeri
#3
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H27/10
Champions League
Forca Lleida
#18
W
60-40
60
40
+20
H31/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A08/11
ACB
Bamberg
#53
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H11/11
Champions League
Bilbao
#9
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A15/11
ACB
79.0Avg total
40.0Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.140.882.9+1.357%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.340.884.1+2.559%-
Last 30 away (13)40.640.881.4-0.254%-
Last 10 (10)40.039.079.0+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)44.238.883.0+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)38.548.887.2-10.20%-
vs Similar (7)41.442.684.0-1.157%-
vs Weaker (19)43.238.581.6+4.768%-
This opponent (Basket Zaragoza) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket ZaragozaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valencia
#1
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H26/05
ACB
Breogan
#11
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A29/05
ACB
Tenerife
#3
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A27/09
ACB
Valencia
#2
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H04/10
ACB
Leyma Coruna
#14
W
52-28
52
28
+24
A10/10
ACB
Forca Lleida
#18
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H18/10
ACB
Barcelona
#4
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A24/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#11
W
48-40
48
40
+8
H31/10
ACB
Unicaja
#8
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H08/11
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#12
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A14/11
ACB
87.4Avg total
46.3Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.743.085.7-0.347%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.740.985.6+3.767%-
Last 30 away (15)40.745.185.9-4.427%-
Last 10 (10)46.341.187.4+5.270%-
Last 5 (5)47.042.489.4+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)40.346.887.2-6.517%-
vs Similar (14)43.741.485.1+2.464%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)46.237.583.8+8.875%-
This opponent (Murcia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.218.4
50.8%
55.8%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.710.7
32.7%
36.4%32.1
🏀 Free throws24.519.0
77.6%
76.0%19.0
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Zaragozatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Zaragoza: 90.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.520.6
53.5%
55.8%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.810.1
39.1%
36.4%30.3
🏀 Free throws25.819.1
74.0%
76.0%19.1
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Murcia
WWLWLWLWLW
Basket Zaragoza
LWWLWWLWWL
#10
League position
#7
+1.2
Net rating
-0.9
97.1
Offensive rating
101.0
95.9
Defensive rating
101.9
50.0%
Effective FG%
55.6%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
56.1%
14.0%
Turnover %
15.4%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.40
32.7%
3-point %
39.1%
53.3%
Assist %
62.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence97.1 · 101.0Defence95.9 · 101.9Shooting50.0% · 55.6%3-point %32.7% · 39.1%Ball care14.0% · 15.4%Free throws0.36 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Murcia   ■ Basket Zaragoza
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Murcia wins
3
Basket Zaragoza wins
Murcialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ABilbao84-76
11/11/26HBamberg98-66
08/11/26AReal Madrid71-90
31/10/26HForca Lleida125-98
27/10/26HPeristeri72-80
24/10/26HLeyma Coruna88-81
18/10/26AValencia93-116
14/10/26ABamberg86-67
11/10/26HTenerife77-90
07/10/26HVarese85-58
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AJoventut Badalona94-99
08/11/26HUnicaja96-91
31/10/26HBasquet Girona107-78
24/10/26ABarcelona81-99
18/10/26HForca Lleida109-98
10/10/26ALeyma Coruna92-71
04/10/26HValencia82-97
27/09/26ATenerife81-80
29/05/26ABreogan95-94
26/05/26HValencia86-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murcia
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW50%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%75%25%
Points / game89.497.581.2
Allowed / game91.190.891.5
Point differential-1.8+6.8-10.2
Avg total180.5188.2172.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Basket Zaragoza
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL62%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game92.898.587.0
Allowed / game89.191.087.2
Point differential+3.6+7.5-0.2
Avg total181.9189.5174.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid880100%105.285.1+20.1
2 Valencia86275%100.689.1+11.5
3 Tenerife86275%87.179.6+7.5
4 Barcelona86275%98.693.0+5.6
5 Baskonia85362%93.686.0+7.6
6 Breogan85362%104.8100.1+4.6
7 Basket Zaragoza85362%92.889.1+3.6
8 Unicaja84450%87.984.1+3.8
9 Bilbao84450%90.091.5-1.5
10 Murcia84450%89.491.1-1.8
11 Basquet Girona84450%88.195.4-7.2
12 Joventut Badalona83538%90.590.4+0.1
13 Obradoiro CAB83538%89.498.0-8.6
14 Leyma Coruna83538%92.5101.2-8.8
15 San Pablo Burgos82625%91.493.0-1.6
16 Manresa82625%88.0101.0-13.0
17 MoraBanc Andorra81712%86.496.5-10.1
18 Forca Lleida81712%92.8104.6-11.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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