Bilbao hosts Murcia on 15 November 2026 in the Liga ACB, with the model favouring the home side at 60% versus 40% for the visitors; the projected score is 91-88 and the total is 178.6 points. Bilbao's season record is 4-3, averaging 92.0 points per game and allowing 92.6, and they sit eighth in the league; at home they are undefeated 3-0, scoring 97.0 and conceding 85.0, and they won three of their last five games, including a recent 83-75 victory over Alba Berlin at home. Murcia, meanwhile, is 3-4 overall, averaging 90.1 and allowing 93.3, and they are eleventh; on the road they are 0-3, scoring 80.3 and conceding 96.7, and they won two of their last five, with a recent 125-98 win over Forca Lleida at home. In their ten meetings, Murcia has won seven, most recently beating Bilbao 100-81 on 28 March 2026. The home line is -3.0 with a 51% chance of covering, the over line is 181.5 with a 42% chance of going over, and there is a 5% probability of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Bilbao can maintain its strong home performance against a Murcia side that has struggled on the road.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bilbao win
57.8%fair 1.73
Best odds1.75
Implied58.0%
Edge-0.2pp
Murcia win
42.2%fair 2.37
Best odds2.28
Implied42.0%
Edge+0.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Bilbao) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 176 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (11%). The market's main line is 181.5.
Over/Under 176.5
Over 176.5
47.2%
@ 1.75-7.5pp
Under 176.5
52.8%
@ 2.12+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Marathon Be
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.05
WilliamHill
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Over/Under 181.5 · main line
Over 181.5
35.7%
@ 2.15-8.0pp
Under 181.5
64.3%
@ 1.90+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
WilliamHill
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathon Be
2.09
Under
BetVictor
1.90
WilliamHill
1.67
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Over/Under 186.5
Over 186.5
25.5%
@ 2.80-10.1pp
Under 186.5
74.5%
@ 1.53+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.80
1xBet
2.25
Marathon Be
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.53
Marathon Be
1.39
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
📊 3. Team Totals
Bilbao total 88
Over 88
53.7%
Under 88
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilbao total 92 · main line
Over 92
38.2%
@ 1.91-11.4pp
Under 92
61.8%
@ 1.89+11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.81
Bilbao total 96
Over 96
24.4%
Under 96
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murcia total 85.5
Over 85.5
54.3%
@ 1.50-6.3pp
Under 85.5
45.7%
@ 2.30+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.30
Murcia total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
39.1%
@ 2.00-7.2pp
Under 89.5
60.9%
@ 1.83+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Be
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Be
1.72
Murcia total 93.5
Over 93.5
25.6%
@ 2.70-7.9pp
Under 93.5
74.4%
@ 1.36+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.36
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Bilbao's side (positive = Bilbao win). Pythia's expected margin is +2.2; Bilbao win by 1+ in 51% of simulations.
Spread Bilbao -5.5
BIL -5.5
39.9%
@ 2.45+0.2pp
MUR +5.5
60.1%
@ 1.53-0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BIL
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.24
Marathon Be
2.24
MUR
1xBet
1.53
Marathon Be
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.52
Spread Bilbao -2.5 · main line
BIL -2.5
50.6%
@ 1.95+0.2pp
MUR +2.5
49.4%
@ 1.93-0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BIL
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Marathon Be
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
MUR
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
Spread Bilbao +0.5
BIL +0.5
57.8%
MUR -0.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
BIL
No market prices yet.
MUR
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
BilbaoMurcia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Bilbao) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
BIL win
53.4%
@ 1.78+0.5pp
MUR win
46.6%
@ 2.00-0.5pp
2nd half Spread Bilbao -1 · main line
BIL -1
49.1%
@ 1.89-0.4pp
MUR +1
50.9%
@ 1.85+0.4pp
2nd half Over/Under 93.5 · main line
Over
28.7%
@ 2.10-20.0pp
Under
71.3%
@ 1.87+20.0pp
Bilbao 2nd half total 46.5 · main line
Over
37.0%
@ 1.87-13.2pp
Under
63.0%
@ 1.88+13.2pp
Murcia 2nd half total 45.5 · main line
Over
37.7%
@ 1.87-12.3pp
Under
62.3%
@ 1.90+12.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 92
Over
32.9%
@ 1.85-17.6pp
Under
67.1%
@ 1.89+17.6pp
2nd half Spread Bilbao -2
BIL -2
44.9%
@ 1.97-2.6pp
MUR +2
55.1%
@ 1.78+2.6pp
2nd half Spread Bilbao 0
BIL 0
53.4%
@ 1.76+0.2pp
MUR 0
46.6%
@ 2.00-0.2pp
2nd half Over/Under 90.5
Over
38.5%
@ 1.82-12.8pp
Under
61.5%
@ 1.92+12.8pp
2nd half Spread Bilbao +1
BIL +1
57.9%
@ 1.70+2.9pp
MUR -1
42.1%
@ 2.08-2.9pp
2nd half Over/Under 88.5
Over
45.9%
@ 1.62-11.7pp
Under
54.1%
@ 2.20+11.7pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
BIL
51.1%
@ 1.85+0.8pp
Draw
4.3%
@ 21.00-0.9pp
MUR
44.5%
@ 2.07+0.1pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bilbaotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Bilbao: 91.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
39.4
21.1
53.6%
55.8%
42.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
30.3
10.9
36.0%
36.4%
32.7
🏀Free throws
22.0
16.3
74.1%
76.0%
16.3
Their opponents take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Murciatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Murcia: 86.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.9
20.2
49.4%
55.8%
40.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
21.8
8.8
40.4%
36.4%
26.4
🏀Free throws
27.0
20.0
74.1%
76.0%
20.0
Their opponents take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bilbaotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Bilbao: 85.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.5
20.5
53.2%
55.8%
41.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.2
10.0
35.3%
36.4%
29.9
🏀Free throws
20.1
14.9
74.3%
76.0%
14.9
Their opponents take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Murciatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Murcia: 86.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
42.7
21.7
50.8%
55.8%
43.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
22.0
7.9
36.0%
36.4%
23.7
🏀Free throws
25.8
19.0
73.9%
76.0%
19.0
Their opponents take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bilbao
WLWLWLWWWL
Murcia
WLWLWLWLWW
#8
League position
#11
+0.5
Net rating
+1.2
99.9
Offensive rating
97.1
99.4
Defensive rating
95.9
53.8%
Effective FG%
50.0%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
13.6%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.36
36.8%
3-point %
32.7%
66.3%
Assist %
53.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%
Profile
■ Bilbao■ Murcia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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