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Murcia vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 85-58
16-8 23-14 27-20 19-16
Position#4
Record-
FormLWLLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Murcia 🏆
vs
Varese
Position#37
Record-
FormLWLLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeChampions League· Palacio de Deportes de Murcia
European cup2026
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murcia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MurciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMurcia
Date
Competition
Basquet Girona
#12
W
86-75
86
75
+11
77avg 80
H09/05
ACB
Baskonia
#3
L
80-87
80
87
-7
62avg 80
A14/05
ACB
Unicaja
#9
W
87-69
87
69
+18
81avg 80
H17/05
ACB
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
100-90
100
90
+10
97avg 80
A24/05
ACB
Forca Lleida
#14
W
116-95
116
95
+21
109avg 80
H29/05
ACB
Barcelona
#5
L
68-91
68
91
-23
51avg 80
H02/06
ACB
Barcelona
#5
W
90-87
90
87
+3
80avg 80
A04/06
ACB
Barcelona
#5
L
76-100
76
100
-24
60avg 80
H06/06
ACB
Basquet Girona
#9
L
77-84
77
84
-7
64avg 80
A27/09
ACB
Barcelona
#6
W
100-94
100
94
+6
91avg 80
H04/10
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
27-23
23-17
18-17
18-20
15-23
20-24
27-20
35-17
10-24
19-15
23-13
22-17
23-26
27-21
28-26
23-29
35-17
28-23
30-26
14-16
16-30
22-20
16-25
22-18
21-22
24-26
23-21
17-27
19-25
25-27
15-21
16-22
17-14
19-16
25-32
18-18
28-28
24-27
30-21
175.2Avg total
88.0Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)88.087.2175.2+0.860%
Last 5 (5)82.291.2173.4-9.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)92.0102.0194.0-10.050%
vs Similar (8)85.991.2177.1-5.438%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)91.781.8173.4+10.090%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Treviso
#14
W
91-86
91
86
+5
84avg 74
H15/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#11
L
75-104
75
104
-29
57avg 74
A22/03
Lega A
Tortona
#6
W
97-87
97
87
+10
90avg 74
H28/03
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
89-90
89
90
-1
76avg 74
A04/04
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
91-90
91
90
+1
78avg 74
H12/04
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
96-100
96
100
-4
94avg 74
A19/04
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
84-75
84
75
+9
78avg 74
H26/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
85-104
85
104
-19
70avg 74
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
69-90
69
90
-21
50avg 74
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
85-77
85
77
+8
78avg 74
A04/10
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-22
30-22
19-23
21-19
13-25
6-22
25-26
31-31
21-28
28-21
22-23
26-15
20-25
33-23
18-22
18-20
24-20
27-22
12-25
28-23
19-20
25-26
26-30
26-24
19-18
26-13
13-24
26-20
17-27
21-22
31-29
16-26
21-26
18-21
19-21
11-22
24-17
16-21
30-24
15-15
176.5Avg total
86.2Scored
90.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.290.3176.5-4.150%
Last 5 (5)83.889.2173.0-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)82.691.4173.9-8.829%
vs Similar (15)83.983.8167.7+0.153%
vs Weaker (1)85.077.0162.0+8.0100%
This opponent (Murcia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +0.3+0.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +0.3+0.3
MurciaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Basquet Girona
#12
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H09/05
ACB
Baskonia
#3
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A14/05
ACB
Unicaja
#9
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H17/05
ACB
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A24/05
ACB
Forca Lleida
#14
W
58-46
58
46
+12
H29/05
ACB
Barcelona
#5
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H02/06
ACB
Barcelona
#5
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A04/06
ACB
Barcelona
#5
L
36-52
36
52
-16
H06/06
ACB
Basquet Girona
#9
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A27/09
ACB
Barcelona
#6
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H04/10
ACB
84.8Avg total
41.4Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.141.285.3+2.967%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.742.385.9+1.467%-
Last 30 away (15)44.540.284.7+4.367%-
Last 10 (10)41.443.484.8-2.050%-
Last 5 (5)37.644.081.6-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)42.550.593.0-8.00%-
vs Similar (8)40.643.584.1-2.938%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)45.639.485.0+6.285%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Treviso
#14
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H15/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#11
L
19-47
19
47
-28
A22/03
Lega A
Tortona
#6
D
49-49
49
49
+0
H28/03
Lega A
Trieste
#10
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A04/04
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H12/04
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A19/04
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H26/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A04/10
Lega A
87.0Avg total
42.9Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.543.684.0-3.133%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.542.783.2-2.133%-
Last 30 away (15)40.444.584.9-4.133%-
Last 10 (10)42.944.187.0-1.250%-
Last 5 (5)41.242.283.4-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)41.446.688.1-5.221%-
vs Similar (15)39.641.180.7-1.540%-
vs Weaker (1)40.038.078.0+2.0100%-
This opponent (Murcia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.8 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.819.6
54.7%
53.1%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.010.4
32.5%
35.3%31.2
🏀 Free throws22.717.6
77.5%
72.1%17.6
They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 85.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.8 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.819.7
56.6%
53.1%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.811.0
33.5%
35.3%33.0
🏀 Free throws18.713.1
70.1%
72.1%13.1
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Murcia
WLLWLWWWLW
Varese
WLLWLWLWLW
#4
League position
#37
+0.9
Net rating
-4.8
99.1
Offensive rating
95.1
98.2
Defensive rating
99.9
51.9%
Effective FG%
53.6%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
12.6%
Turnover %
14.1%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.5%
3-point %
33.5%
48.0%
Assist %
59.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 95.1Defence98.2 · 99.9Shooting51.9% · 53.6%3-point %32.5% · 33.5%Ball care12.6% · 14.1%Free throws0.33 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Murcia   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Murcia wins
0
Varese wins
No previous meetings.
Murcialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/26HBarcelona100-94
27/09/26ABasquet Girona77-84
06/06/26HBarcelona76-100
04/06/26ABarcelona90-87
02/06/26HBarcelona68-91
29/05/26HForca Lleida116-95
24/05/26ABasket Zaragoza100-90
17/05/26HUnicaja87-69
14/05/26ABaskonia80-87
09/05/26HBasquet Girona86-75
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/26AScafati85-77
27/09/26HVirtus Bologna69-90
10/05/26AVirtus Bologna85-104
26/04/26HCremona84-75
19/04/26ACantu96-100
12/04/26HSassari91-90
04/04/26ATrieste89-90
28/03/26HTortona97-87
22/03/26ABasket Napoli75-104
15/03/26HTreviso91-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murcia
Champions League 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Varese
Champions League 2026
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Unicaja110100%105.066.0+39.0
2 Strasbourg110100%100.062.0+38.0
3 Spartak Subotica110100%96.064.0+32.0
4 Alba Berlin110100%110.086.0+24.0
5 Cholet110100%99.079.0+20.0
6 Cibona110100%96.076.0+20.0
7 Reggiana110100%82.065.0+17.0
8 Bilbao110100%92.079.0+13.0
9 Joventut Badalona110100%86.075.0+11.0
10 Trabzonspor110100%93.083.0+10.0
11 Rytas110100%82.073.0+9.0
12 Antwerp Giants110100%99.093.0+6.0
13 Peristeri110100%93.087.0+6.0
14 Bonn110100%78.074.0+4.0
15 AEK Athens110100%95.093.0+2.0
16 Vechta54180%91.887.4+4.4
17 Salon Vilpas43175%92.887.5+5.2
18 Dziki Warszawa43175%103.299.2+4.0
19 Breogan32167%113.792.3+21.3
20 CSM Oradea32167%94.787.3+7.3
21 Promitheas32167%86.392.7-6.3
22 Korfez Basket21150%92.086.5+5.5
23 VEF Riga21150%100.095.0+5.0
24 Benfica21150%87.588.0-0.5
25 Bakken Bears21150%80.584.0-3.5
26 Batumi21150%81.589.0-7.5
27 Manchester Basketball21150%79.089.0-10.0
28 Fribourg Olympic1010%85.086.0-1.0
29 Wurzburg1010%73.074.0-1.0
30 Denizli Basket1010%98.0101.0-3.0
31 Levice1010%87.090.0-3.0
32 FC Porto1010%74.078.0-4.0
33 Bamberg1010%87.093.0-6.0
34 Szombathely1010%93.099.0-6.0
35 AEK Larnaca1010%87.095.0-8.0
36 Geneva Lions1010%78.087.0-9.0
37 Sabah Baku1010%73.082.0-9.0
38 Nanterre1010%83.093.0-10.0
39 Vienna Basket1010%82.092.0-10.0
40 Bnei Herzliya1010%75.086.0-11.0
41 Zwolle1010%78.089.0-11.0
42 Kolossos Rhodes1010%79.091.0-12.0
43 Igokea1010%79.092.0-13.0
44 Absheron Lions1010%88.0105.0-17.0
45 Opava1010%99.0116.0-17.0
46 Pardubice1010%65.082.0-17.0
47 Galatasaray1010%76.096.0-20.0
48 Hapoel Holon1010%79.099.0-20.0
49 Slavia Prague ERA NBK1010%86.0110.0-24.0
50 Legia1010%62.0100.0-38.0
51 Juventus1010%66.0105.0-39.0
52 Rilski Sportist1010%80.0126.0-46.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 52 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Murcia1623271985
Varese814201658
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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