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Murray State vs Illinois State Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 17 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Scheduled
Position#25
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game67.5
vs
Position#300
Record1-3
FormLLWLL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game75.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Murray State v Illinois State
17 Dec 2026
MURR v ILLI
upcoming
28 Jan 2026
MURR65
ILLI70
02 Jan 2025
MURR68
ILLI74
30 Jan 2024
MURR59
ILLI61
01 Dec 2022
MURR70
ILLI67
05 Dec 2020
MURR76
ILLI65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#186
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
94-57
94
57
+37
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
99-78
99
78
+21
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
42-39
51-32
51-30
43-27
50-38
49-40
159.1Avg total
83.0Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)95.067.5162.5+27.5100%
Season at home (3)95.368.7164.0+26.7100%
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.076.1159.1+6.960%
Last 5 (5)91.872.4164.2+19.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (14)81.377.8159.1+3.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)87.470.6158.0+16.9100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A15/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
78-61
78
61
+17
H19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
52-74
52
74
-22
H07/03
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
L
85-90 OT
85
90
-5
A03/11
NCAA
Central State (OH)
#404
W
100-55
100
55
+45
H06/11
NCAA
Purdue
#126
L
59-76
59
76
-17
A10/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#264
L
81-82 OT
81
82
-1
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-33
30-50
36-28
42-33
31-43
29-31
28-23
43-46
38-40
43-34
27-35
25-39
39-33
38-44
56-29
44-26
28-36
31-40
31-31
38-38
146.1Avg total
72.3Scored
73.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)81.275.8157.0+5.525%
Season at home (1)100.055.0155.0+45.0100%
Season away (3)75.082.7157.7-7.70%
Last 10 (10)72.373.8146.1-1.540%
Last 5 (5)75.475.4150.8+0.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)81.586.5168.0-5.00%
vs Similar (15)66.668.1134.7-1.553%
vs Weaker (13)83.669.5153.2+14.169%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +0.9+0.92nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -1.8-1.8
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +0.9+0.92nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -1.8-1.8
Murray StateIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#186
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
50-38
50
38
+12
H14/11
NCAA
74.8Avg total
40.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.836.276.0+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.235.276.4+6.182%-
Last 30 away (13)37.837.575.4+0.346%-
Last 10 (10)40.334.574.8+5.870%-
Last 5 (5)44.238.482.6+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%-
vs Similar (14)37.936.274.1+1.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.033.378.3+11.7100%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A15/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H07/03
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A03/11
NCAA
Central State (OH)
#404
W
56-29
56
29
+27
H06/11
NCAA
Purdue
#126
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A10/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#264
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A14/11
NCAA
67.1Avg total
34.0Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.332.567.8+2.850%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.329.467.7+8.969%-
Last 30 away (14)31.836.167.9-4.329%-
Last 10 (10)34.033.167.1+0.940%-
Last 5 (5)36.232.869.0+3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)36.036.572.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (15)31.031.862.8-0.840%-
vs Weaker (13)40.132.772.8+7.462%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Murray State wins
5
Illinois State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HTexas Southern99-78
11/11/26HAlcorn State94-57
08/11/26HNorthwestern St.93-71
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANorth Dakota St81-82 OT
10/11/26APurdue59-76
06/11/26HCentral State (OH)100-55
03/11/26ASt. Marys (CA)85-90 OT
07/03/26HNorthern Iowa52-74
01/03/26HBelmont81-74
26/02/26ANorthern Iowa71-69
22/02/26ABradley60-74
19/02/26HMurray State78-61
15/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)56-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game95.095.394.0
Allowed / game67.568.764.0
Point differential+27.5+26.7+30.0
Avg total162.5164.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illinois State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%100%0%
Points / game81.2100.075.0
Allowed / game75.855.082.7
Point differential+5.5+45.0-7.7
Avg total157.0155.0157.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)-0% (2)
Overtime %50%0%67%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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