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Murray State vs Illinois State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 29 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 65-70
29-35 36-35
Position#102
Record16-5
FormWWWLL
Points / game87.3
Allowed / game78.6
vs
Position#96
Record14-7
FormLLWWL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game67.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Murray State v Illinois State
17 Dec 2026
MURR v ILLI
upcoming
28 Jan 2026
MURR65
ILLI70
02 Jan 2025
MURR68
ILLI74
30 Jan 2024
MURR59
ILLI61
01 Dec 2022
MURR70
ILLI67
05 Dec 2020
MURR76
ILLI65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#271
W
81-72
81
72
+9
H19/12
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
85-79
85
79
+6
A21/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A02/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
86-66
86
66
+20
H04/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
79-69
79
69
+10
A08/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
92-79
92
79
+13
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
85-81
85
81
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
90-101
90
101
-11
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
76-81
76
81
-5
A24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
36-30
45-42
36-39
49-40
47-34
37-47
36-40
45-37
50-32
36-34
42-30
37-39
45-36
47-43
47-37
38-44
41-44
49-57
38-37
38-44
162.5Avg total
83.9Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)87.378.6165.9+8.876%
Season at home (12)89.273.2162.3+16.0100%
Season away (9)84.985.8170.7-0.944%
Last 10 (10)83.978.6162.5+5.380%
Last 5 (5)84.482.2166.6+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)82.084.0166.0-2.033%
vs Similar ◀ (16)80.975.2156.2+5.769%
vs Weaker (8)84.667.2151.9+17.4100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
W
75-68
75
68
+7
A19/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
85-65
85
65
+20
H21/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
73-56
73
56
+17
A30/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
73-47
73
47
+26
H01/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A08/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
59-63 OT
59
63
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
89-94
89
94
-5
A15/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
88-62
88
62
+26
H17/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
69-80
69
80
-11
A24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
30-35
45-33
42-25
43-40
31-27
42-29
46-28
27-19
23-35
48-42
25-28
26-23
42-51
47-43
44-29
44-33
24-16
35-38
36-44
33-36
140.7Avg total
74.1Scored
66.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)77.867.0144.9+10.867%
Season at home (12)80.259.2139.4+20.992%
Season away (9)74.777.4152.1-2.833%
Last 10 (10)74.166.6140.7+7.560%
Last 5 (5)72.870.6143.4+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)79.079.3158.3-0.333%
vs Similar ◀ (10)70.268.6138.8+1.650%
vs Weaker (16)77.967.7145.6+10.269%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: +2.5+2.52nd half2nd half: -0.6-0.62nd half: +5.4+5.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.9+5.91st half: +2.5+2.52nd half2nd half: -0.6-0.62nd half: +5.4+5.4
Murray StateIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#271
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H19/12
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A21/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A02/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H04/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A08/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H17/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/01
NCAA
77.7Avg total
41.8Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.534.472.9+4.170%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.831.872.6+9.188%-
Last 30 away (13)35.537.873.2-2.346%-
Last 10 (10)41.835.977.7+5.970%-
Last 5 (5)42.636.879.4+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)35.737.573.2-1.883%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)37.435.472.9+2.050%-
vs Weaker (8)42.829.972.6+12.9100%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A19/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
42-25
42
25
+17
H21/12
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A30/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H01/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
23-35
23
35
-12
A08/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
25-28
25
28
-3
H10/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A15/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H17/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
24-16
24
16
+8
H22/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A24/01
NCAA
66.1Avg total
34.3Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.932.068.0+3.957%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.227.266.4+11.981%-
Last 30 away (14)32.237.569.7-5.329%-
Last 10 (10)34.331.866.1+2.550%-
Last 5 (5)34.233.667.8+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)33.335.769.0-2.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)31.333.364.6-2.040%-
vs Weaker (16)38.631.269.8+7.369%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Murray State wins
3
Illinois State wins
Murray Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26ANorthern Iowa76-81
22/01/26ADrake90-101
17/01/26HIndiana State85-81
10/01/26HValparaiso92-79
08/01/26AEvansville79-69
04/01/26HBradley86-66
02/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)81-77
30/12/25HSouthern Illinois84-81
21/12/25AValparaiso85-79
19/12/25HDrake81-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26ABelmont69-80
22/01/26HNorthern Iowa59-54
17/01/26HBradley88-62
15/01/26AIndiana State89-94
10/01/26HIllinois (Chi.)59-63 OT
08/01/26AValparaiso71-77
01/01/26HEvansville73-47
30/12/25ADrake73-56
21/12/25HIndiana State85-65
19/12/25ASouthern Illinois75-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL76%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21129
Win %76%100%44%
Points / game87.389.284.9
Allowed / game78.673.285.8
Point differential+8.8+16.0-0.9
Avg total165.9162.3170.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%58%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)100% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illinois State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL67%
HomeWWLWW92%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21129
Win %67%92%33%
Points / game77.880.274.7
Allowed / game67.059.277.4
Point differential+10.8+20.9-2.8
Avg total144.9139.4152.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%75%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)50% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %5%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont2319483%80.971.4+9.5
2 Murray State2116576%87.378.6+8.8
3 Illinois State2114767%77.867.0+10.8
4 Bradley2214864%77.773.3+4.4
5 Northern Iowa2213959%67.060.7+6.3
6 Illinois (Chi.)22121055%75.570.1+5.4
7 Drake22121055%77.472.4+5.0
8 Valparaiso21101148%71.170.1+1.0
9 Southern Illinois2191243%75.072.1+2.8
10 Indiana State2291341%75.575.2+0.3
11 Evansville2151624%67.874.2-6.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State293665
Illinois State353570
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