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Illinois State vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 76-72
35-33 41-39
Position#240
Record4-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game66.6
Allowed / game65.9
vs
Position#296
Record3-3
FormWLLLW
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game73.0
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Illinois State v Murray State
18 Feb 2026
ILLI78
MURR61
03 Dec 2023
ILLI76
MURR72
15 Feb 2023
ILLI75
MURR76
16 Nov 2021
ILLI65
MURR77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#24
L
51-82
51
82
-31
A23/02
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
72-53
72
53
+19
H26/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A02/03
NCAA
Lourdes
#415
W
75-56
75
56
+19
H07/11
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#292
L
71-80
71
80
-9
A12/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#258
W
69-61
69
61
+8
H16/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#140
W
61-52
61
52
+9
H20/11
NCAA
High Point
#29
L
72-74
72
74
-2
A21/11
NCAA
Wright State
#160
L
49-74
49
74
-25
A22/11
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
W
69-64
69
64
+5
A01/12
NCAA
1H
2H
32-42
19-40
31-28
41-25
28-44
34-31
38-29
37-27
34-46
37-34
34-24
35-37
32-24
29-28
30-37
42-37
21-39
28-35
30-36
39-28
132.2Avg total
65.1Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)66.665.9132.4+0.757%
Season at home (3)68.356.3124.7+12.0100%
Season away (4)65.273.0138.2-7.825%
Last 10 (10)65.167.1132.2-2.050%
Last 5 (5)64.065.0129.0-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)65.674.7140.3-9.119%
vs Similar ◀ (10)65.765.4131.1+0.350%
vs Weaker (3)76.065.0141.0+11.0100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri State
#177
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A22/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
W
77-76 OT
77
76
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
W
78-50
78
50
+28
H03/03
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Midway
#486
W
91-58
91
58
+33
H07/11
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#322
W
78-72
78
72
+6
H11/11
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#84
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H15/11
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#60
L
81-83 OT
81
83
-2
A20/11
NCAA
Appalachian State
#14
L
57-67
57
67
-10
H22/11
NCAA
Bradley
#71
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H30/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-46
35-38
33-32
32-33
38-25
40-25
31-33
31-41
54-33
37-25
36-26
42-46
34-43
47-43
37-35
35-37
28-33
29-34
42-32
37-40
147.5Avg total
75.3Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)77.873.0150.8+4.850%
Season at home (5)77.271.0148.2+6.260%
Season away (1)81.083.0164.0-2.00%
Last 10 (10)75.372.2147.5+3.150%
Last 5 (5)75.276.0151.2-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)67.677.5145.1-9.927%
vs Similar ◀ (10)71.371.2142.5+0.160%
vs Weaker (5)77.861.8139.6+16.0100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.9-3.91st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: +0.3+0.3
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.9-3.91st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: +0.3+0.3
Illinois StateMurray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#24
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A23/02
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A02/03
NCAA
Lourdes
#415
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H07/11
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#292
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A12/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#258
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H16/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#140
W
32-24
32
24
+8
H20/11
NCAA
High Point
#29
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A21/11
NCAA
Wright State
#160
L
21-39
21
39
-18
A22/11
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A01/12
NCAA
65.9Avg total
31.0Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.235.066.3-3.837%-
Last 30 at home (15)31.731.963.5-0.253%-
Last 30 away (15)30.838.269.0-7.420%-
Last 10 (10)31.034.965.9-3.940%-
Last 5 (5)29.432.061.4-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)30.237.868.0-7.619%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)31.032.363.3-1.340%-
vs Weaker (3)35.331.366.7+4.0100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri State
#177
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A22/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H03/03
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A04/03
NCAA
Midway
#486
W
54-33
54
33
+21
H07/11
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#322
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H11/11
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#84
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H15/11
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#60
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A20/11
NCAA
Appalachian State
#14
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H22/11
NCAA
Bradley
#71
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H30/11
NCAA
70.5Avg total
36.7Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.434.267.6-0.843%-
Last 30 at home (17)35.533.568.9+2.059%-
Last 30 away (13)30.735.165.8-4.423%-
Last 10 (10)36.733.870.5+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)35.433.869.2+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)32.736.369.1-3.627%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)32.634.767.3-2.150%-
vs Weaker (5)37.026.663.6+10.480%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Illinois State wins
4
Murray State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/23AIllinois (Chi.)69-64
22/11/23AWright State49-74
21/11/23AHigh Point72-74
20/11/23HLong Beach State61-52
16/11/23HEastern Illinois69-61
12/11/23ASt. Louis Billikens71-80
07/11/23HLourdes75-56
02/03/23ANorthern Iowa62-75
26/02/23HEvansville72-53
23/02/23ADrake51-82
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/11/23HBradley79-72
22/11/23HAppalachian State57-67
20/11/23ANC Wilmington81-83 OT
15/11/23HWestern Kentucky81-86
11/11/23HTennessee Tech78-72
07/11/23HMidway91-58
04/03/23ADrake62-74
03/03/23HValparaiso78-50
26/02/23HValparaiso77-76 OT
22/02/23AMissouri State69-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW57%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%100%25%
Points / game66.668.365.2
Allowed / game65.956.373.0
Point differential+0.7+12.0-7.8
Avg total132.4124.7138.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Murray State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW50%
HomeWWLLW60%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games651
Win %50%60%0%
Points / game77.877.281.0
Allowed / game73.071.083.0
Point differential+4.8+6.2-2.0
Avg total150.8148.2164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %17%0%100%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Evansville87188%85.668.4+17.2
2 Indiana State87188%87.173.5+13.6
3 Drake87188%79.869.8+10.0
4 Bradley86275%75.271.2+4.0
5 Southern Illinois75271%79.465.0+14.4
6 Belmont96367%82.280.4+1.8
7 Illinois (Chi.)85362%74.462.6+11.8
8 Illinois State74357%66.665.9+0.7
9 Murray State63350%77.873.0+4.8
10 Valparaiso84450%70.169.8+0.4
11 Northern Iowa82625%75.475.2+0.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois State354176
Murray State333972
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