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Penarol vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 79-68
24-14 14-16 22-17 19-21
Position#2
Record17-3
FormWWWLW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game69.9
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#3
Record16-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game92.2
Allowed / game80.9
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2023-24
Meetings · Penarol v Nacional
08 Apr 2026
PENA71
NACI78
08 Dec 2025
PENA82
NACI69
18 Jan 2025
PENA85
NACI89
22 Apr 2024
PENA63
NACI67
06 Feb 2024
PENA79
NACI68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Urupan
#9
W
90-64
90
64
+26
90avg 74
H22/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
87-81
87
81
+6
77avg 74
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
73-52
73
52
+21
68avg 74
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
82-58
82
58
+24
84avg 74
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
88-87
88
87
+1
85avg 74
H16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
81-64
81
64
+17
72avg 74
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
90-65
90
65
+25
83avg 74
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
91-83
91
83
+8
84avg 74
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
65-75
65
75
-10
51avg 74
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
57-52
57
52
+5
45avg 74
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-18
23-14
26-16
10-16
28-14
23-33
15-19
21-15
18-16
17-13
18-7
20-16
30-17
24-22
13-13
15-6
31-20
23-22
19-25
15-20
18-10
25-16
18-14
20-24
25-14
30-16
17-16
18-19
26-18
26-27
12-18
27-20
22-24
17-21
11-12
15-18
13-14
14-16
20-13
10-9
148.5Avg total
80.4Scored
68.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)83.069.9152.9+13.185%
Season at home (10)83.866.9150.7+16.990%
Season away (10)82.372.9155.2+9.480%
Last 10 (10)80.468.1148.5+12.390%
Last 5 (5)76.867.8144.6+9.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (3)87.080.3167.3+6.767%
vs Weaker (17)82.468.1150.4+14.388%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
72avg 85
A18/12
Champions League Americas
Malvin
#5
W
84-83
84
83
+1
79avg 85
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
94-82
94
82
+12
95avg 85
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
111-61
111
61
+50
111avg 85
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
99-79
99
79
+20
96avg 85
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
111-105 OT
111
105
+6
no box
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
86-61
86
61
+25
83avg 85
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Quimsa
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
63avg 85
H27/01
Champions League Americas
Sao Paulo
#6
W
86-82
86
82
+4
80avg 85
H29/01
Champions League Americas
Bigua
#7
W
71-67 OT
71
67
+4
no box
H03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
24-13
13-28
23-27
29-14
15-24
18-25
22-20
24-17
34-12
14-26
22-27
32-13
31-25
25-14
23-9
16-24
30-13
32-21
21-21
18-26
25-30
36-21
19-21
20-22
21-14
26-8
19-17
19-23
18-18
20-25
21-20
22-24
24-22
20-17
20-19
21-14
9-13
17-19
12-13
169.0Avg total
89.8Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)92.280.9173.1+11.389%
Season at home (9)86.173.2159.3+12.989%
Season away (9)98.288.6186.8+9.789%
Last 10 (10)89.879.2169.0+10.680%
Last 5 (5)86.480.2166.6+6.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)78.382.2160.5-3.930%
vs Similar ◀ (8)88.486.1174.5+2.288%
vs Weaker (12)93.977.8171.7+16.292%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +7.7+7.7Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +4.7+4.7Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +0.8+0.8
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +7.7+7.7Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: +4.7+4.7Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +0.8+0.8
PenarolNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urupan
#9
W
54-32
54
32
+22
H22/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
43-26
43
26
+17
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
55-30
55
30
+25
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
82.9Avg total
46.4Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (20)44.236.080.2+8.260%-
Last 30 at home (10)47.033.380.3+13.780%-
Last 30 away (10)41.438.880.2+2.640%-
Last 10 (10)46.436.582.9+9.980%-
Last 5 (5)43.235.278.4+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (3)45.742.388.0+3.333%-
vs Weaker (17)43.934.978.9+9.065%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
W
42-31
42
31
+11
A18/12
Champions League Americas
Malvin
#5
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
58-29
58
29
+29
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
63-38
63
38
+25
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
43-56
43
56
-13
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Quimsa
#3
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H27/01
Champions League Americas
Sao Paulo
#6
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H29/01
Champions League Americas
Bigua
#7
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H03/02
Liga Uruguaya
82.9Avg total
45.0Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.240.684.8+3.660%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.040.284.2+3.860%-
Last 30 away (15)44.341.085.3+3.360%-
Last 10 (10)45.037.982.9+7.170%-
Last 5 (5)39.441.280.6-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)38.739.177.8-0.440%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)45.446.191.5-0.838%-
vs Weaker (12)47.938.286.1+9.892%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.117.1
53.3%
51.0%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.010.7
34.5%
33.3%32.1
🏀 Free throws19.813.5
68.2%
71.7%13.5
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 81.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.219.6
54.1%
51.0%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.39.6
37.9%
33.3%28.8
🏀 Free throws18.713.3
71.1%
71.7%13.3
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WLWWWWWWWW
Nacional
WWLWWWWWWL
#2
League position
#3
+17.3
Net rating
+11.2
107.1
Offensive rating
113.7
89.8
Defensive rating
102.5
52.5%
Effective FG%
55.3%
41.7%
Opp. effective FG%
47.7%
15.4%
Turnover %
17.3%
24.3%
Off. rebound %
31.3%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.5%
3-point %
37.9%
54.3%
Assist %
66.4%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence107.1 · 113.7Defence89.8 · 102.5Shooting52.5% · 55.3%3-point %34.5% · 37.9%Ball care15.4% · 17.3%Off. rebounds24.3% · 31.3%Free throws0.31 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Penarol   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Penarol wins
0
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/24ALarre Borges57-52
31/01/24HCordon65-75
28/01/24ATrouville91-83
25/01/24HGoes90-65
20/01/24HDefensor81-64
16/01/24HAguada88-87
13/01/24HMalvin82-58
10/01/24HHebraica y Macabi73-52
04/01/24ABigua87-81
22/12/23HUrupan90-64
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/24HBigua71-67 OT
29/01/24HSao Paulo86-82
27/01/24HQuimsa78-86
23/01/24HCordon86-61
19/01/24AAguada111-105 OT
16/01/24ATrouville99-79
13/01/24HGoes111-61
10/01/24ALarre Borges94-82
05/01/24AMalvin84-83
18/12/23AQuimsa78-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW85%
HomeWWWWL90%
AwayWWWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %85%90%80%
Points / game83.083.882.3
Allowed / game69.966.972.9
Point differential+13.2+16.9+9.4
Avg total152.9150.7155.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%70%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW89%
HomeWLWWW89%
AwayWWWWW89%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %89%89%89%
Points / game92.286.198.2
Allowed / game80.973.288.6
Point differential+11.3+12.9+9.7
Avg total173.1159.3186.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%44%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %11%11%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional1816289%92.280.9+11.3
2 Penarol2017385%83.069.9+13.2
3 Aguada2015575%87.580.8+6.7
4 Defensor2013765%81.178.8+2.2
5 Hebraica y Macabi2012860%83.580.0+3.4
6 Bigua2091145%84.083.0+0.9
7 Malvin2191243%82.081.1+0.8
8 Cordon2081240%72.475.8-3.5
9 Urupan1961332%76.783.1-6.4
10 Trouville2061430%80.787.0-6.3
11 Goes2051525%78.186.1-8.0
12 Larre Borges2031715%76.289.8-13.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol2414221979
Nacional1416172168
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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