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NC State vs North Carolina Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 16 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#46
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game62.2
vs
Position#116
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · NC State v North Carolina
15 Dec 2026
NC S v NORT
upcoming
17 Feb 2026
NC S82
NORT58
11 Jan 2025
NC S61
NORT63
10 Jan 2024
NC S54
NORT67
19 Feb 2023
NC S77
NORT69
26 Feb 2022
NC S74
NORT84
22 Dec 2020
NC S79
NORT76
27 Jan 2020
NC S65
NORT75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NC State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
64-93
64
93
-29
H03/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H07/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
98-88
98
88
+10
H11/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
74-81
74
81
-7
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
66-68
66
68
-2
H18/03
NCAA
Campbell
#316
W
83-64
83
64
+19
H03/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#284
W
77-63
77
63
+14
H07/11
NCAA
Presbyterian
#379
W
94-60
94
60
+34
H11/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-38
37-43
30-47
34-46
34-37
50-48
51-50
47-38
32-33
42-48
29-30
37-38
41-19
42-45
35-36
42-27
46-19
48-41
36-27
45-35
157.1Avg total
81.1Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.862.2146.0+21.5100%
Season at home (4)83.862.2146.0+21.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.176.0157.1+5.150%
Last 5 (5)80.263.4143.6+16.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.5105.5176.0-35.00%
vs Similar (12)75.974.1150.0+1.842%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)86.470.2156.6+16.288%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
78-82 OT
78
82
-4
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#253
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#70
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
34-39
27-37
31-39
48-41
39-28
36-47
39-30
41-42
51-34
58-36
31-29
45-34
31-38
39-40
152.6Avg total
78.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season at home (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.674.0152.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)82.673.0155.6+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)69.369.0138.3+0.367%
vs Similar (14)74.075.6149.6-1.650%
vs Weaker (13)87.670.8158.5+16.892%
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +1.5+1.52nd half: +3.3+3.3
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +1.5+1.52nd half: +3.3+3.3
NC StateNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
30-47
30
47
-17
H03/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H11/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H18/03
NCAA
Campbell
#316
W
41-19
41
19
+22
H03/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#284
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H07/11
NCAA
Presbyterian
#379
W
46-19
46
19
+27
H11/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H14/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
37.8Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.133.171.1+5.067%-
Last 30 at home (20)38.031.669.5+6.470%-
Last 30 away (10)38.236.174.3+2.160%-
Last 10 (10)37.833.671.4+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)37.426.263.6+11.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.051.584.5-18.50%-
vs Similar (12)33.431.965.3+1.542%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)42.231.673.8+10.694%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#253
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#70
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H14/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.6Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.635.874.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.633.873.4+5.774%-
Last 30 away (11)37.039.376.3-2.336%-
Last 10 (10)36.634.971.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)38.231.870.0+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)31.336.367.7-5.033%-
vs Similar (14)34.636.971.5-2.236%-
vs Weaker (13)44.634.679.2+10.092%-
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
NC State wins
7
North Carolina wins
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HTroy81-62
11/11/26HPresbyterian94-60
07/11/26HEast Tennessee St77-63
03/11/26HCampbell83-64
18/03/26HTexas66-68
12/03/26AVirginia74-81
11/03/26HPittsburgh98-88
07/03/26HStanford84-85
03/03/26HDuke64-93
28/02/26ANotre Dame90-96 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HGeorgia70-78
11/11/26HWyoming76-63
07/11/26HWofford109-70
03/11/26HWestern Carolina80-72
19/03/26HVCU Rams78-82 OT
13/03/26HClemson79-80
07/03/26ADuke61-76
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NC State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game62.262.2-
Point differential+21.5+21.5-
Avg total146.0146.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
North Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWWL75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game70.870.8-
Point differential+13.0+13.0-
Avg total154.5154.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
3 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
4 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
5 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
6 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
7 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
8 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
9 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
10 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
11 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
14 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
15 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
16 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
17 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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