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North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 20 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 02:00
Scheduled
Position#116
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game70.8
North Carolina
USA
vs
Virginia
USA
Position#40
Record5-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game91.8
Allowed / game69.6
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · North Carolina v Virginia
19 Jan 2027
NORT v VIRG
upcoming
22 Feb 2025
NORT81
VIRG66
25 Feb 2023
NORT71
VIRG63
10 Mar 2022
NORT63
VIRG43
08 Jan 2022
NORT74
VIRG58
15 Feb 2020
NORT62
VIRG64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
78-82 OT
78
82
-4
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#255
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
34-39
27-37
31-39
48-41
39-28
36-47
39-30
41-42
51-34
58-36
31-29
45-34
31-38
39-40
152.6Avg total
78.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season at home (4)83.870.8154.5+13.075%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.674.0152.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)82.673.0155.6+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)69.369.0138.3+0.367%
vs Similar (14)74.075.6149.6-1.650%
vs Weaker (13)87.670.8158.5+16.892%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
84-62
84
62
+22
H13/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A15/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H20/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
72-79
72
79
-7
H22/03
NCAA
Drexel
#241
W
89-60
89
60
+29
H04/11
NCAA
Northeastern
#238
W
97-72
97
72
+25
H06/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#110
W
91-72
91
72
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Bucknell
#398
W
95-61
95
61
+34
H11/11
NCAA
Maryland
#278
W
87-83
87
83
+4
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-32
48-42
38-23
46-39
36-38
34-36
38-43
44-30
31-36
41-43
51-27
38-33
38-31
59-41
46-27
45-45
53-31
42-30
36-47
51-36
155.8Avg total
84.8Scored
71.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)91.869.6161.4+22.2100%
Season at home (4)93.066.2159.2+26.8100%
Season away (1)87.083.0170.0+4.0100%
Last 10 (10)84.871.0155.8+13.880%
Last 5 (5)91.869.6161.4+22.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)60.575.5136.0-15.00%
vs Similar (10)79.070.9149.9+8.180%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)82.967.7150.7+15.294%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +6.5+6.52nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +7.3+7.3
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +6.5+6.52nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +7.3+7.3
North CarolinaVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#189
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#255
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#94
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H11/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H14/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.6Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.635.874.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.633.873.4+5.774%-
Last 30 away (11)37.039.376.3-2.336%-
Last 10 (10)36.634.971.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)38.231.870.0+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)31.336.367.7-5.033%-
vs Similar (14)34.636.971.5-2.236%-
vs Weaker (13)44.634.679.2+10.092%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H13/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A15/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H20/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H22/03
NCAA
Drexel
#241
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H04/11
NCAA
Northeastern
#238
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H06/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#110
W
46-27
46
27
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Bucknell
#398
W
53-31
53
31
+22
H11/11
NCAA
Maryland
#278
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A14/11
NCAA
73.5Avg total
40.0Scored
33.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.031.669.6+6.467%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.730.269.9+9.683%-
Last 30 away (12)35.433.869.2+1.642%-
Last 10 (10)40.033.573.5+6.560%-
Last 5 (5)44.832.677.4+12.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.039.570.5-8.50%-
vs Similar (10)36.631.067.6+5.670%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)39.631.170.7+8.472%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
North Carolina wins
4
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
24/01/26Virginia v North Carolina80-85
22/02/25North Carolina v Virginia81-66
24/02/24Virginia v North Carolina44-54
10/03/23Virginia v North Carolina68-59
25/02/23North Carolina v Virginia71-63
11/01/23Virginia v North Carolina65-58
11/03/22North Carolina v Virginia63-43
08/01/22North Carolina v Virginia74-58
13/02/21Virginia v North Carolina60-48
16/02/20North Carolina v Virginia62-64
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HGeorgia70-78
11/11/26HWyoming76-63
07/11/26HWofford109-70
03/11/26HWestern Carolina80-72
19/03/26HVCU Rams78-82 OT
13/03/26HClemson79-80
07/03/26ADuke61-76
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AMaryland87-83
11/11/26HBucknell95-61
08/11/26HArkansas91-72
06/11/26HNortheastern97-72
04/11/26HDrexel89-60
22/03/26HTennessee72-79
20/03/26HWright State82-73
15/03/26ADuke70-74
13/03/26HMiami (FL)84-62
12/03/26HNC State81-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWWL75%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %75%75%-
Points / game83.883.8-
Allowed / game70.870.8-
Point differential+13.0+13.0-
Avg total154.5154.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Virginia
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games541
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game91.893.087.0
Allowed / game69.666.283.0
Point differential+22.2+26.8+4.0
Avg total161.4159.2170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
2 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
3 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
4 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
5 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
6 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
7 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
8 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
9 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
10 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
13 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
14 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
15 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Louisville32167%89.775.0+14.7
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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