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Virginia vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 10 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 68-59
25-24 43-35
Position#36
Record23-6
FormWLLWW
Points / game68.2
Allowed / game60.5
Virginia 🏆
USA
vs
North Carolina
USA
Position#117
Record20-12
FormWWWLW
Points / game76.7
Allowed / game71.0
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Virginia v North Carolina
24 Jan 2026
VIRG80
NORT85
24 Feb 2024
VIRG44
NORT54
09 Mar 2023
VIRG68
NORT59
10 Jan 2023
VIRG65
NORT58
13 Feb 2021
VIRG60
NORT48
08 Dec 2019
VIRG56
NORT47
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#180
W
67-62
67
62
+5
A31/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
L
68-74
68
74
-6
A04/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
63-50
63
50
+13
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
W
69-62 OT
69
62
+7
H11/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A16/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#221
L
48-63
48
63
-15
A23/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A25/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
64-57
64
57
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
75-60
75
60
+15
H04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
36-35
31-27
30-32
38-42
34-20
29-30
25-27
33-31
29-26
32-32
29-25
28-30
21-28
27-35
26-42
37-29
28-23
36-34
36-20
39-40
124.7Avg total
63.5Scored
61.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)68.260.5128.7+7.779%
Season at home (17)68.756.7125.4+12.094%
Season away (12)67.465.8133.2+1.658%
Last 10 (10)63.561.2124.7+2.370%
Last 5 (5)61.461.2122.6+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.059.5117.5-1.550%
vs Similar ◀ (15)68.162.7130.7+5.467%
vs Weaker (13)68.557.5126.0+11.192%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#39
L
57-63
57
63
-6
A04/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#142
L
85-92
85
92
-7
A08/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
91-71
91
71
+20
H11/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H14/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
63-59
63
59
+4
A23/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
W
71-63
71
63
+8
H25/02
NCAA
Florida State
#342
W
77-66
77
66
+11
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
57-62
57
62
-5
H04/03
NCAA
Boston College
#221
W
85-61
85
61
+24
H09/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-33
25-30
25-47
60-45
42-33
49-38
34-35
38-45
31-32
38-45
19-27
44-32
42-26
29-37
43-25
34-41
31-33
26-29
43-29
42-32
142.1Avg total
72.7Scored
69.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)76.771.0147.7+5.762%
Season at home (17)78.867.8146.5+11.082%
Season away (15)74.474.7149.1-0.340%
Last 10 (10)72.769.4142.1+3.350%
Last 5 (5)70.662.2132.8+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)90.583.5174.0+7.050%
vs Similar ◀ (18)72.773.1145.8-0.339%
vs Weaker (10)79.464.8144.2+14.6100%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +1.1+1.1
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +1.1+1.1
VirginiaNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#180
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A31/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#138
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A04/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
W
34-20
34
20
+14
H08/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
25-27
25
27
-2
H11/02
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A16/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
W
29-25
29
25
+4
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#221
L
21-28
21
28
-7
A23/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#117
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A25/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
28-23
28
23
+5
H01/03
NCAA
Louisville
#367
W
36-20
36
20
+16
H04/03
NCAA
57.2Avg total
29.4Scored
27.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.327.759.0+3.660%-
Last 30 at home (18)31.224.956.2+6.367%-
Last 30 away (12)31.331.863.2-0.550%-
Last 10 (10)29.427.857.2+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)28.027.655.6+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)26.525.051.5+1.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)30.529.760.1+0.840%-
vs Weaker (13)32.925.858.8+7.185%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#39
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A04/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#142
L
25-47
25
47
-22
A08/02
NCAA
Clemson
#60
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H11/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
L
34-35
34
35
-1
H14/02
NCAA
NC State
#66
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A19/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#302
L
19-27
19
27
-8
A23/02
NCAA
Virginia
#36
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H25/02
NCAA
Florida State
#342
W
43-25
43
25
+18
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#39
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H04/03
NCAA
Boston College
#221
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H09/03
NCAA
66.2Avg total
34.2Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.332.167.5+3.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.830.468.2+7.473%-
Last 30 away (15)32.933.966.7-1.047%-
Last 10 (10)34.232.066.2+2.240%-
Last 5 (5)35.628.063.6+7.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)39.531.571.0+8.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)33.433.867.3-0.444%-
vs Weaker (10)37.929.267.1+8.790%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Virginia wins
3
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
25/02/23North Carolina v Virginia71-63
11/01/23Virginia v North Carolina65-58
11/03/22North Carolina v Virginia63-43
08/01/22North Carolina v Virginia74-58
13/02/21Virginia v North Carolina60-48
16/02/20North Carolina v Virginia62-64
08/12/19Virginia v North Carolina56-47
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/23HLouisville75-60
01/03/23HClemson64-57
25/02/23ANorth Carolina63-71
23/02/23ABoston College48-63
18/02/23HNotre Dame57-55
16/02/23ALouisville61-58
11/02/23HDuke69-62 OT
08/02/23HNC State63-50
04/02/23AVirginia Tech68-74
31/01/23ASyracuse67-62
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/23HBoston College85-61
04/03/23HDuke57-62
28/02/23AFlorida State77-66
25/02/23HVirginia71-63
23/02/23ANotre Dame63-59
19/02/23ANC State69-77
14/02/23HMiami (FL)72-80
11/02/23HClemson91-71
08/02/23AWake Forest85-92
04/02/23ADuke57-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW79%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWLWLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %79%94%58%
Points / game68.268.767.4
Allowed / game60.556.765.8
Point differential+7.7+12.0+1.6
Avg total128.7125.4133.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%47%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)100% (3)60% (5)
Overtime %3%6%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW62%
HomeWLWLW82%
AwayLLLWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321715
Win %62%82%40%
Points / game76.778.874.4
Allowed / game71.067.874.7
Point differential+5.7+11.0-0.3
Avg total147.7146.5149.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%53%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)33% (3)50% (6)
Overtime %6%0%13%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virginia2923679%68.260.5+7.7
2 Duke3224875%72.664.0+8.6
3 NC State3223972%78.970.5+8.4
4 Clemson3122971%75.568.1+7.4
5 Pittsburgh33221167%76.170.5+5.6
6 North Carolina32201262%76.771.0+5.7
7 Miami (FL)63372659%76.573.1+3.4
8 Virginia Tech33191458%74.269.8+4.5
9 Wake Forest33191458%76.673.8+2.8
10 Syracuse32171553%74.172.9+1.2
11 Boston College33161748%66.670.2-3.6
12 Georgia Tech33151845%69.770.8-1.0
13 Stanford32141844%69.967.5+2.4
14 Notre Dame32112134%69.672.1-2.5
15 SMU Mustangs32102231%70.275.6-5.3
16 Florida State3292328%69.376.2-6.9
17 Louisville3242812%63.975.8-11.8
18 California323299%58.370.1-11.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia254368
North Carolina243559
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