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Notre Dame vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 28 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 97-100 (OT)
44-35 29-38 24-27
Position#269
Record11-9
FormLLLLW
Points / game72.9
Allowed / game70.1
Notre Dame
USA
vs
Virginia 🏆
USA
Position#19
Record16-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game69.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Notre Dame v Virginia
27 Jan 2026
NOTR97
VIRG100
30 Dec 2023
NOTR76
VIRG54
29 Jan 2022
NOTR69
VIRG65
30 Dec 2020
NOTR57
VIRG66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Notre Dame winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Idaho
#136
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H11/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
82-58
82
58
+24
H13/12
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
69-72
69
72
-3
H21/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
L
71-72
71
72
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
61-76
61
76
-15
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-81
69
81
-12
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
76-89
76
89
-13
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
69-91
69
91
-22
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-33
47-32
41-29
41-29
24-27
45-45
22-17
25-23
31-27
40-45
34-39
27-37
39-39
30-42
34-45
42-44
33-42
36-49
24-35
44-29
140.0Avg total
69.2Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)72.970.1143.0+2.855%
Season at home (12)77.368.7146.0+8.775%
Season away (8)66.272.2138.5-6.025%
Last 10 (10)69.270.8140.0-1.640%
Last 5 (5)68.680.2148.8-11.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)66.973.8140.7-6.933%
vs Similar (10)79.971.1151.0+8.880%
vs Weaker (2)89.576.0165.5+13.5100%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
95-51
95
51
+44
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
85-95 OT
85
95
-10
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
76-61
76
61
+15
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
79-70
79
70
+9
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
80-85
80
85
-5
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
46-32
38-28
24-19
56-53
45-25
50-26
24-23
31-32
40-20
36-41
43-33
41-27
41-34
29-21
33-28
46-42
40-37
32-31
43-34
37-51
148.2Avg total
80.5Scored
67.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)82.369.9152.2+12.480%
Season at home (14)85.166.4151.5+18.886%
Season away (6)75.778.2153.8-2.567%
Last 10 (10)80.567.7148.2+12.880%
Last 5 (5)77.067.6144.6+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)68.472.8141.2-4.440%
vs Similar (10)73.369.1142.4+4.270%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)83.469.7153.1+13.780%
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: +9.4+9.42nd half2nd half: +0.2+0.22nd half: +4.4+4.4
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: +9.4+9.42nd half2nd half: +0.2+0.22nd half: +4.4+4.4
Notre DameVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Idaho
#136
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H13/12
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
24-27
24
27
-3
H21/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
22-17
22
17
+5
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
24-35
24
35
-11
H24/01
NCAA
64.8Avg total
31.5Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.833.665.4-1.840%-
Last 30 at home (18)32.331.964.2+0.444%-
Last 30 away (12)31.036.267.2-5.233%-
Last 10 (10)31.533.364.8-1.830%-
Last 5 (5)32.840.072.8-7.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)30.836.567.3-5.722%-
vs Similar (10)32.428.260.6+4.270%-
vs Weaker (2)38.035.073.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
24-23
24
23
+1
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H24/01
NCAA
66.4Avg total
37.9Scored
28.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.331.269.5+7.177%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.431.271.7+9.283%-
Last 30 away (12)35.131.266.2+3.967%-
Last 10 (10)37.928.566.4+9.4100%-
Last 5 (5)40.033.273.2+6.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.633.668.2+1.060%-
vs Similar (10)36.131.167.2+5.070%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)41.030.571.5+10.587%-
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Notre Dame wins
5
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
25/01/25Virginia v Notre Dame59-74
01/02/24Virginia v Notre Dame65-53
30/12/23Notre Dame v Virginia76-54
18/02/23Virginia v Notre Dame57-55
29/01/22Notre Dame v Virginia69-65
13/01/21Virginia v Notre Dame80-68
30/12/20Notre Dame v Virginia57-66
12/02/20Virginia v Notre Dame50-49 OT
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26HBoston College68-64
22/01/26ANorth Carolina69-91
17/01/26AVirginia Tech76-89
14/01/26HMiami (FL)69-81
10/01/26HClemson61-76
03/01/26ACalifornia71-72
31/12/25AStanford47-40
21/12/25HIPFW69-72
13/12/25HEvansville82-58
11/12/25HIdaho80-65
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26HNorth Carolina80-85
17/01/26ASMU Mustangs72-68
14/01/26ALouisville79-70
10/01/26HStanford70-55
08/01/26HCalifornia84-60
03/01/26ANC State76-61
31/12/25AVirginia Tech85-95 OT
22/12/25HAmerican University95-51
20/12/25HMaryland80-72
10/12/25HMd.-East. Shore84-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Notre Dame
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW55%
HomeWLLLW75%
AwayWWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20128
Win %55%75%25%
Points / game72.977.366.2
Allowed / game70.168.772.2
Point differential+2.8+8.7-6.0
Avg total143.0146.0138.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%42%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)75% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %5%0%12%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayWLWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20146
Win %80%86%67%
Points / game82.385.175.7
Allowed / game69.966.478.2
Point differential+12.4+18.8-2.5
Avg total152.2151.5153.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%71%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %5%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2019195%85.664.6+21.0
2 Clemson2117481%77.165.1+12.0
3 Miami (FL)2016480%85.069.3+15.7
4 North Carolina2016480%82.570.0+12.5
5 Virginia2016480%82.369.9+12.4
6 SMU Mustangs2015575%87.277.0+10.2
7 California2015575%78.870.2+8.5
8 Virginia Tech2115671%81.574.6+6.9
9 Louisville2014670%86.070.3+15.7
10 NC State2014670%85.371.8+13.4
11 Stanford2014670%76.072.5+3.5
12 Syracuse2012860%75.769.0+6.7
13 Notre Dame2011955%72.970.1+2.8
14 Georgia Tech2011955%75.073.2+1.7
15 Wake Forest21111052%80.176.7+3.4
16 Boston College2091145%68.268.2+0.1
17 Pittsburgh2191243%73.071.5+1.5
18 Florida State2081240%81.380.5+0.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Notre Dame44292497
Virginia353827100
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