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Pato vs Caxias do Sul Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 29 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 78-74
24-16 18-17 20-20 16-21
Position#12
Record6-11
FormLLLLW
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game78.2
Pato 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#18
Record6-10
FormLWLWL
Points / game71.2
Allowed / game78.9
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Pato v Caxias do Sul
09 Jan 2026
PATO85
CAXI91
20 Jan 2025
PATO78
CAXI65
29 Dec 2023
PATO78
CAXI74
06 Feb 2023
PATO88
CAXI80
08 Apr 2022
PATO59
CAXI68
08 Jan 2021
PATO77
CAXI92
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Caxias do Sul winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Bauru
#5
W
73-70
73
70
+3
69avg 67
H14/11
NBB
Franca
#1
W
87-83
87
83
+4
78avg 67
H16/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
67-89
67
89
-22
56avg 67
A20/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
68-79
68
79
-11
60avg 67
A22/11
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
75-76
75
76
-1
63avg 67
H29/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
64-68
64
68
-4
50avg 67
H01/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
81-85
81
85
-4
76avg 67
A16/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
77-91
77
91
-14
67avg 67
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
75-84
75
84
-9
66avg 67
A22/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
79-63
79
63
+16
77avg 67
H27/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-17
14-21
22-14
18-18
21-17
23-29
17-18
26-19
25-20
19-20
10-22
13-27
17-23
15-24
13-25
23-7
15-17
16-19
17-20
27-20
15-17
17-18
22-14
10-19
18-18
22-14
16-29
25-24
16-25
23-14
10-28
28-24
20-23
14-23
27-16
14-22
13-15
23-13
18-9
25-26
153.4Avg total
74.6Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)75.078.2153.2-3.235%
Season at home (7)77.072.1149.1+4.957%
Season away (10)73.682.4156.0-8.820%
Last 10 (10)74.678.8153.4-4.230%
Last 5 (5)75.278.2153.4-3.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)72.780.4153.1-7.729%
vs Similar (11)77.579.5157.0-2.136%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)84.275.0159.2+9.280%
This opponent (Caxias do Sul) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Caxias do SulBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSul
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
82-90
82
90
-8
76avg 56
H17/11
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
59-94
59
94
-35
44avg 56
A22/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
60-89
60
89
-29
40avg 56
A24/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
79-84
79
84
-5
67avg 56
H28/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
65-81
65
81
-16
44avg 56
H30/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
80-94
80
94
-14
63avg 56
A06/12
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
63-62
63
62
+1
46avg 56
A08/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
79-80
79
80
-1
63avg 56
H19/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
73-64
73
64
+9
63avg 56
H21/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
55-84
55
84
-29
37avg 56
A27/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-24
17-27
17-9
25-30
18-19
6-29
16-17
19-29
15-21
13-21
17-24
15-23
19-15
20-20
18-19
22-30
15-22
15-19
22-16
13-24
13-25
15-28
24-25
28-16
23-17
9-15
17-15
14-15
16-22
22-20
18-19
23-19
14-21
14-14
28-9
17-20
22-17
14-26
4-23
15-18
151.7Avg total
69.5Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)71.278.9150.1-7.738%
Season at home (9)73.677.0150.6-3.433%
Season away (7)68.181.3149.4-13.143%
Last 10 (10)69.582.2151.7-12.720%
Last 5 (5)70.076.8146.8-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)69.879.9149.7-10.123%
vs Similar (5)71.072.0143.0-1.060%
vs Weaker (3)73.066.3139.3+6.767%
This opponent (Pato) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -7.4-7.4Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -3.3-3.3
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -7.4-7.4Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -3.3-3.3
PatoCaxias do Sul
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bauru
#5
L
33-38
33
38
-5
H14/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
44-46
44
46
-2
H16/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A20/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A22/11
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H29/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H01/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A16/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A22/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H27/12
NBB
75.2Avg total
36.5Scored
38.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.638.577.0+0.140%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.436.175.6+3.343%-
Last 30 away (16)37.840.578.3-2.738%-
Last 10 (10)36.538.775.2-2.230%-
Last 5 (5)36.236.072.2+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)37.140.077.1-2.929%-
vs Similar (11)38.737.676.4+1.145%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)42.236.078.2+6.260%-
This opponent (Caxias do Sul) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Caxias do SulLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Jose
#10
L
40-51
40
51
-11
H17/11
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
24-48
24
48
-24
A22/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A24/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H30/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A06/12
NBB
Cearense
#8
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A08/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H19/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
28-35
28
35
-7
H21/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A27/12
NBB
74.5Avg total
32.3Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.339.572.8-6.123%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.438.072.4-3.629%-
Last 30 away (13)32.041.473.4-9.415%-
Last 10 (10)32.342.274.5-9.910%-
Last 5 (5)32.441.073.4-8.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)33.040.173.1-7.018%-
vs Similar (5)32.039.071.0-7.020%-
vs Weaker (3)37.735.773.3+2.067%-
This opponent (Pato) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 73.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.719.7
50.9%
51.8%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.58.1
29.5%
33.9%24.3
🏀 Free throws14.29.9
69.7%
72.6%9.9
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Caxias do Sultheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Caxias do Sul: 68.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.317.2
44.9%
51.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.27.3
29.0%
33.9%21.9
🏀 Free throws18.112.2
67.4%
72.6%12.2
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
WLLLLLLLWW
Caxias do Sul
LWLWLLLLLL
#12
League position
#18
-6.1
Net rating
-16.9
102.9
Offensive rating
91.1
109.0
Defensive rating
107.9
48.1%
Effective FG%
44.3%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
55.0%
16.0%
Turnover %
20.8%
31.5%
Off. rebound %
27.5%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.29
29.5%
3-point %
29.0%
59.0%
Assist %
67.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence102.9 · 91.1Defence109.0 · 107.9Shooting48.1% · 44.3%3-point %29.5% · 29.0%Ball care16.0% · 20.8%Off. rebounds31.5% · 27.5%Free throws0.21 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)30% · 20%
■ Pato   ■ Caxias do Sul
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Pato wins
3
Caxias do Sul wins
DateGameScore
06/02/23Pato v Caxias do Sul88-80
06/12/22Caxias do Sul v Pato73-84
08/04/22Pato v Caxias do Sul59-68
28/12/21Caxias do Sul v Pato80-67
07/04/21Caxias do Sul v Pato83-85 OT
08/01/21Pato v Caxias do Sul77-92
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/12/23HUniao Corinthians79-63
22/12/23AMinas75-84
18/12/23APinheiros77-91
16/12/23ACorinthians Paulista81-85
01/12/23HUnifacisa64-68
29/11/23HCearense75-76
22/11/23APaulistano68-79
20/11/23ASao Paulo67-89
16/11/23HFranca87-83
14/11/23HBauru73-70
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/12/23AMinas55-84
21/12/23HPinheiros73-64
19/12/23HCorinthians Paulista79-80
08/12/23ACearense63-62
06/12/23AUnifacisa80-94
30/11/23HPaulistano65-81
28/11/23HSao Paulo79-84
24/11/23AFranca60-89
22/11/23ABauru59-94
17/11/23HSao Jose82-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW35%
HomeWWLLW57%
AwayLLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17710
Win %35%57%20%
Points / game75.077.073.6
Allowed / game78.272.182.4
Point differential-3.2+4.9-8.8
Avg total153.2149.1156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%29%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)40% (5)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Caxias do Sul
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL38%
HomeLLLLW33%
AwayLLLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %38%33%43%
Points / game71.273.668.1
Allowed / game78.977.081.3
Point differential-7.7-3.4-13.1
Avg total150.1150.6149.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)25% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %6%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1614288%84.873.1+11.7
2 Minas1815383%85.373.7+11.7
3 Franca1613381%86.174.0+12.1
4 Paulistano1813572%75.270.7+4.5
5 Vasco1813572%73.769.5+4.2
6 Unifacisa1610662%79.876.6+3.2
7 Cearense169756%78.175.9+2.2
8 Bauru1810856%78.877.7+1.1
9 Sao Jose179853%79.574.8+4.6
10 Corinthians Paulista178947%80.681.6-1.0
11 Sao Paulo178947%76.779.0-2.3
12 Pinheiros1771041%75.978.5-2.6
13 Caxias do Sul1661038%71.278.9-7.7
14 Pato1761135%75.078.2-3.2
15 Cerrado1751229%73.474.4-1.1
16 Botafogo1751229%77.884.7-6.9
17 Uniao Corinthians1751229%71.980.9-8.9
18 Brasilia1731418%70.985.4-14.5
19 Mogi1721512%73.881.0-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato2418201678
Caxias do Sul1617202174
← all games of the day
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