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Sao Paulo vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 20 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 89-67
20-25 20-19 22-10 27-13
Position#11
Record2-5
FormLLWLW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game83.7
vs
Position#12
Record5-4
FormLLWWW
Points / game76.6
Allowed / game77.1
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi (Sao Paulo)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Pato
28 Mar 2025
SAO 65
PATO69
20 Nov 2023
SAO 89
PATO67
27 Oct 2022
SAO 99
PATO90
12 Jan 2022
SAO 86
PATO77
01 Mar 2021
SAO 84
PATO85
29 Dec 2019
SAO 87
PATO63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
92-94
92
94
-2
no box
H03/06
NBB
Franca
#1
W
86-81
86
81
+5
no box
A08/06
NBB
Franca
#1
L
68-92
68
92
-24
no box
A10/06
NBB
Franca
#1
L
92-100
92
100
-8
80avg 68
A21/10
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
66-87
66
87
-21
55avg 68
A24/10
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
52-71
52
71
-19
34avg 68
A02/11
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
70-86
70
86
-16
59avg 68
H06/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
94-86
94
86
+8
99avg 68
H08/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
78-81
78
81
-3
70avg 68
A14/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
81-75
81
75
+6
77avg 68
A17/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
20-29
25-19
20-23
34-24
8-18
23-24
21-15
13-27
21-18
16-19
18-28
27-18
16-24
22-27
27-31
11-21
21-24
22-24
12-18
9-17
16-17
14-19
13-18
24-23
19-26
12-19
15-18
21-19
24-19
21-24
28-24
16-19
18-20
19-18
25-24
19-20
18-21
22-16
22-18
163.2Avg total
77.9Scored
85.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)76.183.7159.9-7.629%
Season at home (2)82.086.0168.0-4.050%
Season away (5)73.882.8156.6-9.020%
Last 10 (10)77.985.3163.2-7.430%
Last 5 (5)75.079.8154.8-4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)80.683.7164.3-3.146%
vs Similar ◀ (11)79.183.1162.2-4.045%
vs Weaker (6)85.878.7164.5+7.267%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#5
L
78-92
78
92
-14
no box
A23/04
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
71-84
71
84
-13
66avg 70
A15/10
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
79-71
79
71
+8
74avg 70
A24/10
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
62-71
62
71
-9
56avg 70
A27/10
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
83-65
83
65
+18
74avg 70
H31/10
NBB
Brasilia
#19
L
78-80
78
80
-2
70avg 70
H03/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
69-100
69
100
-31
58avg 70
A06/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
87-70
87
70
+17
85avg 70
A08/11
NBB
Bauru
#5
W
73-70
73
70
+3
69avg 70
H14/11
NBB
Franca
#1
W
87-83
87
83
+4
78avg 70
H16/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-16
22-34
21-17
21-25
17-23
22-15
12-26
20-20
23-15
17-17
25-22
14-17
23-22
19-18
11-13
9-18
24-16
18-15
16-22
25-12
15-20
25-22
17-12
21-26
14-22
15-25
16-28
24-25
23-15
25-16
18-24
21-15
19-17
14-21
22-14
18-18
21-17
23-29
17-18
26-19
155.3Avg total
76.7Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)76.677.1153.7-0.656%
Season at home (4)80.274.5154.8+5.875%
Season away (5)73.679.2152.8-5.640%
Last 10 (10)76.778.6155.3-1.950%
Last 5 (5)78.880.6159.4-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)73.883.7157.5-9.925%
vs Similar ◀ (8)77.276.6153.9+0.650%
vs Weaker (6)90.886.8177.7+4.067%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +0.4+0.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +0.4+0.4
Sao PauloPato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
47-52
47
52
-5
H03/06
NBB
Franca
#1
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A08/06
NBB
Franca
#1
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A10/06
NBB
Franca
#1
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A21/10
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A24/10
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A02/11
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H06/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H08/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A14/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A17/11
NBB
80.9Avg total
38.2Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.140.381.4+0.750%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.838.983.6+5.971%-
Last 30 away (16)37.841.679.4-3.831%-
Last 10 (10)38.242.780.9-4.520%-
Last 5 (5)36.840.277.0-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)39.240.779.8-1.546%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.341.380.5-2.045%-
vs Weaker (6)48.537.886.3+10.767%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#5
L
36-50
36
50
-14
A23/04
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A15/10
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/10
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A27/10
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H31/10
NBB
Brasilia
#19
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H03/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A06/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A08/11
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
33-38
33
38
-5
H14/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
44-46
44
46
-2
H16/11
NBB
78.8Avg total
39.3Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.240.679.8-1.530%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.637.578.2+3.138%-
Last 30 away (17)38.143.081.1-4.924%-
Last 10 (10)39.339.578.8-0.250%-
Last 5 (5)38.840.879.6-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.140.278.4-2.125%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)37.238.976.1-1.638%-
vs Weaker (6)44.544.088.5+0.533%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 74.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.9 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.416.4
49.1%
51.8%32.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.49.3
33.9%
33.9%27.9
🏀 Free throws18.014.0
77.8%
72.6%14.0
They take 60.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 75.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.7 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.817.3
52.9%
51.8%34.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.010.1
33.7%
33.9%30.3
🏀 Free throws15.810.4
66.2%
72.6%10.4
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/9 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WLWLLLLLWL
Pato
WWWLLWLWLL
#11
League position
#12
-12.1
Net rating
-1.1
104.1
Offensive rating
104.0
116.3
Defensive rating
105.1
49.9%
Effective FG%
51.8%
52.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
14.0%
Turnover %
17.5%
20.9%
Off. rebound %
27.6%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.25
33.9%
3-point %
33.7%
61.7%
Assist %
63.2%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence104.1 · 104.0Defence116.3 · 105.1Shooting49.9% · 51.8%3-point %33.9% · 33.7%Ball care14.0% · 17.5%Off. rebounds20.9% · 27.6%Free throws0.30 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Sao Paulo wins
1
Pato wins
DateGameScore
14/01/23Pato v Sao Paulo69-84
28/10/22Sao Paulo v Pato99-90 OT
23/03/22Pato v Sao Paulo62-82
12/01/22Sao Paulo v Pato86-77
01/03/21Sao Paulo v Pato84-85
05/12/20Pato v Sao Paulo71-80
03/02/20Pato v Sao Paulo86-106
29/12/19Sao Paulo v Pato87-63
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/11/23APinheiros81-75
14/11/23ACorinthians Paulista78-81
08/11/23HUnifacisa94-86
06/11/23HCearense70-86
02/11/23APaulistano52-71
24/10/23ABauru66-87
21/10/23AFranca92-100
10/06/23AFranca68-92
08/06/23AFranca86-81
03/06/23HFranca92-94
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/23HFranca87-83
14/11/23HBauru73-70
08/11/23AMogi87-70
06/11/23ASao Jose69-100
03/11/23HBrasilia78-80
31/10/23HCerrado83-65
27/10/23AVasco62-71
24/10/23ABotafogo79-71
15/10/23AFlamengo71-84
23/04/23APaulistano78-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW29%
HomeLW50%
AwayLLLLW20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games725
Win %29%50%20%
Points / game76.182.073.8
Allowed / game83.786.082.8
Point differential-7.6-4.0-9.0
Avg total159.9168.0156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW56%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayLWLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %56%75%40%
Points / game76.680.273.6
Allowed / game77.174.579.2
Point differential-0.6+5.8-5.6
Avg total153.7154.8152.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas76186%83.072.0+11.0
2 Flamengo65183%82.569.7+12.8
3 Cearense65183%77.272.2+5.0
4 Vasco86275%71.264.6+6.6
5 Franca75271%88.179.3+8.9
6 Paulistano75271%70.069.0+1.0
7 Caxias do Sul74357%75.175.7-0.6
8 Bauru95456%77.376.6+0.8
9 Pato95456%76.677.1-0.6
10 Sao Jose63350%79.275.3+3.8
11 Unifacisa63350%74.271.0+3.2
12 Corinthians Paulista63350%77.576.7+0.8
13 Uniao Corinthians84450%75.479.1-3.8
14 Pinheiros62433%74.378.0-3.7
15 Sao Paulo72529%76.183.7-7.6
16 Brasilia82625%73.083.4-10.4
17 Botafogo102820%74.682.5-7.9
18 Mogi71614%71.478.4-7.0
19 Cerrado81712%71.475.8-4.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo2020222789
Pato2519101367
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