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Pato vs Cearense Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 29 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 75-76
15-17 16-19 17-20 27-20
Position#12
Record5-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game74.9
Allowed / game78.4
vs
Position#8
Record7-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game72.8
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi (Pato Branco)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Pato v Cearense
14 Nov 2025
PATO82
CEAR79
22 Oct 2024
PATO89
CEAR60
29 Nov 2023
PATO75
CEAR76
02 Mar 2023
PATO82
CEAR87
01 Dec 2021
PATO66
CEAR63
14 Nov 2020
PATO69
CEAR76
26 Feb 2020
PATO84
CEAR72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cearense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#15
W
79-71
79
71
+8
74avg 68
A24/10
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
62-71
62
71
-9
56avg 68
A27/10
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
83-65
83
65
+18
74avg 68
H31/10
NBB
Brasilia
#19
L
78-80
78
80
-2
70avg 68
H03/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
69-100
69
100
-31
58avg 68
A06/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
87-70
87
70
+17
85avg 68
A08/11
NBB
Bauru
#5
W
73-70
73
70
+3
69avg 68
H14/11
NBB
Franca
#1
W
87-83
87
83
+4
78avg 68
H16/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
67-89
67
89
-22
56avg 68
A20/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
68-79
68
79
-11
60avg 68
A22/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-15
17-17
25-22
14-17
23-22
19-18
11-13
9-18
24-16
18-15
16-22
25-12
15-20
25-22
17-12
21-26
14-22
15-25
16-28
24-25
23-15
25-16
18-24
21-15
19-17
14-21
22-14
18-18
21-17
23-29
17-18
26-19
25-20
19-20
10-22
13-27
17-23
15-24
13-25
23-7
153.1Avg total
75.3Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)74.978.4153.3-3.545%
Season at home (4)80.274.5154.8+5.875%
Season away (7)71.980.6152.4-8.729%
Last 10 (10)75.377.8153.1-2.550%
Last 5 (5)76.478.2154.6-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)73.583.4156.9-9.924%
vs Similar ◀ (8)77.477.9155.2-0.550%
vs Weaker (5)87.082.4169.4+4.660%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#11
W
77-66
77
66
+11
no box
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#13
L
75-91
75
91
-16
no box
A14/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
65-63
65
63
+2
55avg 73
A25/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
82-78
82
78
+4
80avg 73
A27/10
NBB
Bauru
#5
W
80-77
80
77
+3
81avg 73
H31/10
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
73-80
73
80
-7
64avg 73
A04/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
86-70
86
70
+16
86avg 73
A06/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
77-65
77
65
+12
70avg 73
H12/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
87-84
87
84
+3
80avg 73
H21/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
78-65
78
65
+13
71avg 73
H24/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-16
21-16
14-13
19-21
13-22
18-20
14-20
30-29
15-20
22-19
13-15
15-9
19-20
23-12
17-20
23-26
20-21
25-23
24-14
11-19
23-20
16-26
15-16
19-18
23-24
26-19
19-12
18-15
17-21
14-10
25-17
21-17
19-16
25-25
18-22
25-21
20-13
17-17
24-17
17-18
151.9Avg total
78.0Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)78.572.8151.2+5.888%
Season at home (4)80.572.8153.2+7.8100%
Season away (4)76.572.8149.2+3.875%
Last 10 (10)78.073.9151.9+4.180%
Last 5 (5)80.272.8153.0+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)75.387.4162.7-12.228%
vs Similar ◀ (10)78.878.4157.2+0.470%
vs Weaker (2)76.073.5149.5+2.5100%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +0.5+0.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +0.5+0.5
PatoCearense
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#15
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/10
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A27/10
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H31/10
NBB
Brasilia
#19
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H03/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A06/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A08/11
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
33-38
33
38
-5
H14/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
44-46
44
46
-2
H16/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A20/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A22/11
NBB
78.8Avg total
39.4Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.240.079.2-0.833%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.637.578.2+3.138%-
Last 30 away (17)38.141.879.9-3.729%-
Last 10 (10)39.439.478.8+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)40.240.480.6-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.840.678.4-2.924%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)39.538.477.9+1.150%-
vs Weaker (5)43.640.283.8+3.440%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#11
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A12/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#13
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A14/04
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A25/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
42-32
42
32
+10
A27/10
NBB
Bauru
#5
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H31/10
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A04/11
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A06/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H12/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H21/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H24/11
NBB
77.9Avg total
39.9Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.640.579.1-1.843%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.141.480.5-2.340%-
Last 30 away (15)38.239.577.7-1.347%-
Last 10 (10)39.938.077.9+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)40.038.278.2+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)37.141.678.7-4.533%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)41.038.579.5+2.560%-
vs Weaker (2)40.540.080.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 74.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.616.5
50.6%
51.8%33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.9
33.4%
33.9%29.7
🏀 Free throws16.411.4
69.5%
72.6%11.4
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 78.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.5 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.020.2
56.2%
51.8%40.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.58.1
37.8%
33.9%24.4
🏀 Free throws19.813.4
67.7%
72.6%13.4
They take 57.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/8 games with a box score before 29 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
LLWWWLLWLW
Cearense
WWWWLWWWLW
#12
League position
#8
-4.0
Net rating
+9.0
102.6
Offensive rating
108.9
106.6
Defensive rating
99.9
50.4%
Effective FG%
56.4%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
45.8%
17.9%
Turnover %
17.7%
28.0%
Off. rebound %
24.0%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.4%
3-point %
37.8%
63.3%
Assist %
55.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence102.6 · 108.9Defence106.6 · 99.9Shooting50.4% · 56.4%3-point %33.4% · 37.8%Ball care17.9% · 17.7%Off. rebounds28.0% · 24.0%Free throws0.26 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Pato   ■ Cearense
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Pato wins
4
Cearense wins
DateGameScore
02/03/23Pato v Cearense82-87
21/11/22Cearense v Pato80-60
02/03/22Cearense v Pato78-84
01/12/21Pato v Cearense66-63
28/01/21Cearense v Pato68-71
14/11/20Pato v Cearense69-76
26/02/20Pato v Cearense84-72
18/10/19Cearense v Pato78-58
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/23APaulistano68-79
20/11/23ASao Paulo67-89
16/11/23HFranca87-83
14/11/23HBauru73-70
08/11/23AMogi87-70
06/11/23ASao Jose69-100
03/11/23HBrasilia78-80
31/10/23HCerrado83-65
27/10/23AVasco62-71
24/10/23ABotafogo79-71
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/23HCorinthians Paulista78-65
21/11/23HPinheiros87-84
12/11/23HUnifacisa77-65
06/11/23ASao Paulo86-70
04/11/23APaulistano73-80
31/10/23HBauru80-77
27/10/23ASao Jose82-78
25/10/23AMogi65-63
14/04/23AUniao Corinthians75-91
12/04/23ACaxias do Sul77-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL45%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayLLWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%75%29%
Points / game74.980.271.9
Allowed / game78.474.580.6
Point differential-3.5+5.8-8.7
Avg total153.3154.8152.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Cearense
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW88%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%100%75%
Points / game78.580.576.5
Allowed / game72.872.872.8
Point differential+5.8+7.8+3.8
Avg total151.2153.2149.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas109190%83.573.2+10.3
2 Cearense87188%78.572.8+5.8
3 Franca97278%89.774.6+15.1
4 Flamengo97278%82.673.2+9.3
5 Vasco107370%73.667.9+5.7
6 Paulistano107370%70.368.8+1.5
7 Sao Jose96367%81.873.2+8.6
8 Unifacisa95456%76.473.8+2.7
9 Bauru126650%78.676.7+1.9
10 Pato115645%74.978.4-3.5
11 Sao Paulo104640%78.181.5-3.4
12 Caxias do Sul104640%72.479.7-7.3
13 Uniao Corinthians104640%71.079.7-8.7
14 Corinthians Paulista83538%75.676.8-1.1
15 Cerrado103730%72.572.1+0.4
16 Pinheiros82625%76.080.0-4.0
17 Botafogo123925%75.183.4-8.3
18 Brasilia92722%70.883.4-12.7
19 Mogi101910%72.780.9-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato1516172775
Cearense1719202076
← all games of the day
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