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Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay 2 Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 04 May 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 65-76
22-21 14-19 12-25 17-11
Position#14
Record2-27
FormLLLLL
Points / game56.8
Allowed / game87.1
vs
Position#12
Record8-21
FormLWWWW
Points / game69.9
Allowed / game81.3
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay 2
04 May 2026
PAVL65
TOBO76
13 Nov 2015
PAVL79
TOBO87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tobol Kostanay 2 winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
A03/05
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
24-29
19-21
8-17
16-13
14-24
20-7
14-17
22-26
11-19
15-23
13-17
16-18
14-27
18-18
17-18
15-21
143.2Avg total
61.6Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)56.887.1143.9-30.47%
Season at home (14)58.183.1141.3-25.014%
Season away (15)55.590.9146.3-35.40%
Last 10 (10)61.681.6143.2-20.00%
Last 5 (5)60.075.8135.8-15.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)56.689.7146.2-33.10%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tobol Kostanay 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
51-85
51
85
-34
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
63-85
63
85
-22
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
46-95
46
95
-49
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
61-110
61
110
-49
H10/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
65-83
65
83
-18
A14/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
80-67
80
67
+13
H15/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A16/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
77-55
77
55
+22
H17/04
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
75-74
75
74
+1
A03/05
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
14-30
17-21
0-12
19-18
19-18
12-28
13-21
21-21
17-24
28-26
20-21
8-32
13-19
8-23
17-21
15-27
22-23
6-32
18-28
15-17
18-23
10-22
22-21
29-24
21-19
17-8
13-16
20-20
27-26
24-25
17-14
19-11
23-15
17-13
18-16
13-17
18-14
25-20
19-23
152.3Avg total
69.2Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)69.981.3151.2-11.528%
Season at home (13)71.179.9151.0-8.838%
Season away (16)68.982.5151.4-13.619%
Last 10 (10)69.283.1152.3-13.940%
Last 5 (5)77.072.8149.8+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)65.789.9155.6-24.26%
vs Similar (8)69.478.2147.6-8.925%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)79.358.7138.0+20.783%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: -10.0-10.0Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q3: -5.4-5.4Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -3.6-3.6
PavlodarTobol Kostanay 2
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A03/05
Higher League
74.0Avg total
30.6Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.046.574.5-18.517%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.443.173.5-12.733%-
Last 30 away (15)25.649.875.4-24.20%-
Last 10 (10)30.643.474.0-12.820%-
Last 5 (5)30.840.271.0-9.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)27.647.475.0-19.814%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tobol Kostanay 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H03/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A04/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
21-51
21
51
-30
A09/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H10/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H15/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A16/04
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H17/04
Higher League
Arlans
#11
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A03/05
Higher League
79.1Avg total
37.1Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.942.278.1-6.333%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.642.680.2-4.936%-
Last 30 away (16)34.441.876.2-7.431%-
Last 10 (10)37.142.079.1-4.940%-
Last 5 (5)40.637.277.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)33.647.681.2-14.019%-
vs Similar (8)34.540.975.4-6.425%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)43.829.373.2+14.583%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 65.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.0 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.4 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.820.8
38.6%
49.5%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.95.7
25.9%
28.5%17.0
🏀 Free throws13.06.4
49.6%
63.9%6.4
They take 75.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tobol Kostanay 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay 2: 70.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.517.5
41.2%
49.5%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.68.1
28.3%
28.5%24.3
🏀 Free throws14.510.8
74.5%
63.9%10.8
They take 71.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/10 games with a box score before 04 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLL
Tobol Kostanay 2
WWWWLLLLLL
#14
League position
#12
-17.3
Net rating
-7.8
79.1
Offensive rating
89.8
96.4
Defensive rating
97.6
38.7%
Effective FG%
41.7%
44.9%
Opp. effective FG%
46.5%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.17
Free-throw rate
0.20
25.9%
3-point %
28.3%
33.6%
Assist %
52.7%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence79.1 · 89.8Defence96.4 · 97.6Shooting38.7% · 41.7%3-point %25.9% · 28.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.17 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)0% · 40%
■ Pavlodar   ■ Tobol Kostanay 2
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pavlodar wins
4
Tobol Kostanay 2 wins
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/26AKaraganda64-84
17/04/26ATobol Kostanay 255-77
16/04/26HChelSU Kostanay70-74
15/04/26ATobol Kostanay 267-80
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/26AArlans75-74
17/04/26HPavlodar77-55
16/04/26AKaraganda88-85
15/04/26HPavlodar80-67
14/04/26AKaraganda65-83
10/03/26HAktobe61-110
09/03/26AAktobe46-95
05/03/26HCHAMP1ON86-92
04/03/26ABC Almaty 263-85
03/03/26HCHAMP1ON51-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL7%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %7%14%0%
Points / game56.858.155.5
Allowed / game87.183.190.9
Point differential-30.4-25.0-35.4
Avg total143.9141.3146.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+3%7%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tobol Kostanay 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW28%
HomeLLLWW38%
AwayLLLWW19%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291316
Win %28%38%19%
Points / game69.971.168.9
Allowed / game81.379.982.5
Point differential-11.5-8.8-13.6
Avg total151.2151.0151.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%38%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)-33% (6)
Overtime %7%0%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan33330100%86.959.7+27.2
2 Shymkent3329488%94.070.1+23.8
3 Bars Petropavlovsk3326779%84.762.9+21.8
4 Aktobe3325876%81.868.7+13.0
5 BC Almaty 233201361%83.874.5+9.2
6 Atyrau 233191458%75.771.5+4.2
7 ChelSU Kostanay33161748%74.979.7-4.8
8 Karaganda29141548%80.378.0+2.3
9 CHAMP1ON33141942%72.277.7-5.5
10 Tigers-KazATU29121741%68.876.1-7.3
11 Arlans2982128%73.682.7-9.1
12 Tobol Kostanay 22982128%69.981.3-11.5
13 AiRom2952417%63.382.2-18.9
14 Pavlodar292277%56.887.1-30.4
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pavlodar2214121765
Tobol Kostanay 22119251176
← all games of the day
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