Penarol host Defensor on 5 November 2026 in the Liga Uruguaya, with the model rating Penarol as the clear favourite at 89% to win, reflecting their undefeated 3-0 season record, 93.3 points scored per game and 76.3 allowed per game, and first place in the league. Defensor, 2-1 this season, average 81.3 points scored and 74.7 allowed, sit fourth and have struggled on the road, losing their only away game 82-89 to Bigua, and have won only two of their last five. Penarol have won all five of their recent games, including a 101-76 victory over Malvin, while Defensor's recent results include a 79-71 win over Urunday and a 83-64 win over Goes. Historically, Penarol lead the 10-game head-to-head series 6-4, most recently defeating Defensor 93-81 on 26 May 2026. The Pythia model projects a 89-75 scoreline, a total of 163.1 points, and a 50% chance that Penarol will cover the -14.0 spread; the over on the main total has no probability listed. With a 2% chance of overtime, the game is expected to stay within the projected range.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 93.3 | 76.3 | 169.7 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (3) | 93.3 | 76.3 | 169.7 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 90.0 | 80.9 | 170.9 | +9.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 93.4 | 78.4 | 171.8 | +15.0 | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker ◀ (30) | 89.9 | 78.1 | 168.0 | +11.8 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 81.3 | 74.7 | 156.0 | +6.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 81.0 | 67.5 | 148.5 | +13.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 82.0 | 89.0 | 171.0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.5 | 80.8 | 158.3 | -3.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.2 | 79.6 | 156.8 | -2.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 78.5 | 84.9 | 163.3 | -6.4 | 33% |
| vs Similar (12) | 81.9 | 80.4 | 162.3 | +1.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 91.0 | 86.7 | 177.7 | +4.3 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 83.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 46.6 | 41.3 | 87.9 | +5.4 | 67% | 63% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 48.2 | 39.3 | 87.5 | +8.9 | 71% | 64% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 45.2 | 43.0 | 88.2 | +2.2 | 62% | 62% |
| Last 10 (10) | 47.5 | 46.6 | 94.1 | +0.9 | 50% | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 49.0 | 47.2 | 96.2 | +1.8 | 40% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker ◀ (30) | 46.6 | 41.3 | 87.9 | +5.4 | 67% | 63% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 83.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.5 | 44.0 | 86.6 | -1.5 | 47% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 42.4 | 40.9 | 83.3 | +1.4 | 57% | 50% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 42.7 | 46.8 | 89.4 | -4.1 | 38% | 69% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.8 | 43.5 | 84.3 | -2.7 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.4 | 43.8 | 86.2 | -1.4 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 42.9 | 45.9 | 88.7 | -3.0 | 40% | 67% |
| vs Similar (12) | 40.0 | 41.3 | 81.3 | -1.3 | 42% | 42% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 51.0 | 45.7 | 96.7 | +5.3 | 100% | 100% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol under 100.5 | 88.6% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Won |
| Penarol under 98.5 | 84.2% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Won |
| Penarol under 94.5 | 72.6% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +7.7pp | Won |
| Penarol under 99.5 | 86.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +7.7pp | Won |
| Penarol under 96.5 | 78.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Penarol (regulation) | 87.2% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Won |
| Penarol over 70.5 | 96.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +5.6pp | Won |
| Penarol over 72.5 | 94.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 97.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp | - |
| Under 189.5 | 94.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Defensor under 92.5 | 95.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Under 179.5 | 84.3% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Defensor under 84.5 | 83.6% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Defensor under 94.5 | 96.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Defensor under 95.5 | 97.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Defensor +24.5 | 82.4% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Defensor under 90.5 | 93.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +4.6pp | Won |
| Penarol over 74.5 | 92.0% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +4.5pp | Won |
| Defensor under 85.5 | 85.8% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +4.4pp | Won |
| Defensor under 80.5 | 72.4% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Defensor under 96.5 | 97.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +4.2pp | Won |
| Under 174.5 | 76.0% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| Defensor under 88.5 | 91.1% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Defensor under 82.5 | 78.4% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Defensor under 86.5 | 87.8% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Penarol over 78.5 | 84.4% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Under 184.5 | 90.4% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +3.8pp | Won |
| Penarol over 76.5 | 88.7% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| Penarol over 79.5 | 81.9% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Won |
| Penarol over 80.5 | 79.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Won |
| Penarol +4.5 | 93.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.9pp | Won |
| Over 139.5 | 92.7% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Won |
| Penarol win | 88.8% | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | +2.2pp | Won |
| Penarol -4.5 | 80.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +1.6pp | Won |
| Penarol over 82.5 | 72.9% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| Defensor over 66.5 | 78.6% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +0.9pp | Lost |
| Over 144.5 | 87.4% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +0.2pp | Won |
| Defensor over 68.5 | 72.4% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | -0.4pp | Lost |
| Over 149.5 | 79.8% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | -0.7pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 43.2 | 24.6 | 50.3% | 49.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.8 | 9.0 | 32.1% | 27.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.1 | 13.0 | 70.5% | 13.0 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.9 | 18.6 | 50.3% | 37.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 26.0 | 8.0 | 32.1% | 24.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.1 | 15.5 | 70.5% | 15.5 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 | Penarol v Defensor | 93-81 |
| 23/05/26 | Defensor v Penarol | 61-81 |
| 20/05/26 | Penarol v Defensor | 101-51 |
| 11/04/26 | Defensor v Penarol | 92-84 OT |
| 13/03/26 | Penarol v Defensor | 88-80 |
| 04/02/26 | Defensor v Penarol | 81-84 |
| 21/11/25 | Penarol v Defensor | 85-72 |
| 25/04/25 | Penarol v Defensor | 78-84 |
| 21/04/25 | Defensor v Penarol | 96-93 OT |
| 17/04/25 | Penarol v Defensor | 76-95 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | WWW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | - | 3 |
| Win % | 100% | - | 100% |
| Points / game | 93.3 | - | 93.3 |
| Allowed / game | 76.3 | - | 76.3 |
| Point differential | +17.0 | - | +17.0 |
| Avg total | 169.7 | - | 169.7 |
| Over 165.25 | 67% | - | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | - | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.3 | 81.0 | 82.0 |
| Allowed / game | 74.7 | 67.5 | 89.0 |
| Point differential | +6.7 | +13.5 | -7.0 |
| Avg total | 156.0 | 148.5 | 171.0 |
| Over 165.25 | 33% | 0% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 93.3 | 76.3 | +17.0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 92.4 | 86.2 | +6.2 | |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 89.4 | 84.0 | +5.4 | |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 74.7 | +6.7 | |
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 78.4 | 75.8 | +2.6 | |
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 79.0 | 81.6 | -2.6 | |
| 7 | Larranaga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 84.6 | 85.2 | -0.6 |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 93.7 | 94.7 | -1.0 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 84.3 | -3.0 | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 81.6 | 84.0 | -2.4 | |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 77.4 | 82.2 | -4.8 | |
| 12 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 71.0 | 86.6 | -15.6 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 84 | |
| 15 | 16 | 23 | 11 | 65 |
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